According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from March 14th to 21st (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market increased from 2656 yuan/ton to 2694 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.41% during the period, a month on month increase of 3.69%, and a year-on-year increase of 0.31%. The domestic methanol market has been fluctuating and consolidating. Macro sentiment has rebounded, coupled with low inventory and limited loading by some companies, planned maintenance of some facilities in China, and high enthusiasm for trade procurement, which has driven the strength of the domestic methanol market.

As of the close on March 21st, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract 2505 for methanol futures opened at 2560 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2574 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2548 yuan/ton. It closed at 2554 yuan/ton in the closing session, up 3 yuan/ton or 0.12% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 545484 lots, the position is 797999 lots, and the daily increase is -12739 lots.

On the cost side, the thermal coal market is operating weakly and oscillating. Most coal mines in the main production area maintain normal production, mainly implementing long-term cooperative shipping, and the overall coal supply level is stable. The impact of methanol cost is mixed.

Demand side, downstream dimethyl ether: increasing demand for dimethyl ether; Downstream acetic acid: Increased demand for acetic acid; Downstream MTBE: MTBE demand increases; Downstream chloride: The load of some enterprises in Shandong has decreased, and the demand for methanol by chloride has decreased; Downstream formaldehyde: There is currently no plan to stop driving formaldehyde, and the demand fluctuation is not significant;. The majority of downstream demand for methanol has increased, and the demand for methanol is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, the overall loss exceeds the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.

In terms of external markets, as of the close of March 20th, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 367.50-368.50 US dollars/ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 99.00-100.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 336.50-337.50 euros/ton, down 5 euros/ton.

The future forecast is that the supply will remain abundant, and inventory will continue to be widely depleted. Downstream traditional demand maintains essential consumption. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly focus on strong consolidation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, formic acid has been rising again and again recently. As of March 17th, the average price of 85% formic acid in China was 3325 yuan/ton, an increase of 9% from 3050 yuan/ton at the beginning of March; An increase of 12.7% compared to the beginning of the year at 2950 yuan/ton; Compared to the same period last year, the price of 3300 yuan/ton has increased by 0.76%.

Shortage of supply

Rising raw material prices

Domestic methanol production remains at a relatively high level, with downstream MTO units restarting. At the same time, traditional demand is relatively stable, and the actual performance is good, which helps to boost the rise of formic acid.

According to the formic acid data analyst from Shengyi Society, the supply of formic acid in the market has decreased, coupled with the rise of raw materials, resulting in a strong operation. It is expected to continue to maintain a high level in the near future, but specific market news and changes in supply and demand still need to be monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from March 7th to 14th, the average price of BDO in China fell from 8014 yuan/ton to 7964 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.62% during the period, a month on month drop of 4.86%, and a year-on-year drop of 15.27%. Exploring the weakness of the domestic BDO market. Recently, the load on the equipment has not been high, and there is support from the supply side. The supplier’s intention to maintain price stability continues. But as new production capacity emerges, downstream bearish sentiment increases. Some of the manufacturers holding the goods lack confidence in their offers, and they are negotiating narrow discounts for actual orders, causing the market center of gravity to fluctuate downward.

There are significant fluctuations in the supply and installation aspects, and the industry’s capacity utilization rate has dropped below 50%. And there are still other devices for maintenance in the later stage, and the factory’s shipments are still acceptable, maintaining a stable market mentality. The supply of BDO is affected by favorable factors.

On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: there has been a significant decrease in supply, due to sporadic equipment maintenance and peak shaving production, in addition to unstable power restrictions, resulting in low market supply. The price of domestic calcium carbide market is rising. The domestic methanol market is operating strongly. As of 10:00 am on March 14th, the domestic methanol Taicang price was 2656 yuan/ton. The prices of raw materials such as calcium carbide and methanol are relatively strong, and the cost of BDO is influenced by favorable factors.

On the demand side, after a brief negative trend in the downstream PTMEG industry, some units are expected to undergo maintenance in mid to late March, while other industries have little change in production, resulting in limited increase in raw material digestion. Moreover, most downstream industries have been suffering long-term losses, and there is a strong bargaining sentiment towards raw materials. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.

In the future market forecast, some facilities will be shut down for maintenance, while the overall increase in new production capacity will be limited and supported by supply side inventory. And the industry has been suffering long-term losses, and the supply side’s stable market mentality continues. Business analyst BDO predicts that the domestic BDO market has limited volatility.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic palm oil market fluctuated and rose mainly in February, with an overall increase of nearly 5%. On February 1st, the average market price of palm oil was 9430 yuan/ton, and on February 27th, the average market price of palm oil was 9900 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.98%.

Long Short Game: Palm oil market oscillates and rises in February

During the Spring Festival, the overseas oil and fat market rose, and after the holiday, the palm oil market saw a rebound. The domestic futures market continued to rise, and the palm oil futures market pulled up, while the spot market followed suit. In addition, the main producing country Malaysia is currently experiencing a production reduction cycle, resulting in a 14.01% decrease in palm oil production from January 1st to 31st compared to the previous period.

In the middle of the month, Malaysia’s palm oil production forecast was raised due to negative factors, and the palm oil market experienced a decline after rising. Due to the low inventory of palm oil in the domestic market and tight supply, the palm oil market has experienced another upward trend after a decline, with high volatility being the main trend and the market remaining strong. Continuously hovering around the 10000 yuan mark. As of February 19th, the average price of palm oil in the domestic market has once again exceeded 10000 yuan/ton, and the market has risen.

At the end of the month, Malaysia’s palm oil exports declined, leading to a decline in the foreign palm oil market. Domestic palm oil futures followed suit and the spot market continued to weaken. The average price of palm oil in the domestic market has fallen below 10000 yuan, dropping to 9900 yuan/ton, a decrease of over 3%.

According to palm oil analysts from Shengyi Society, there are still favorable factors for Malaysian palm oil in March, and there is still room for domestic palm oil prices to rise in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market fluctuated within a certain range in February 2025, with an overall downward trend. From February 1st to 28th, the domestic toluene market price fell from 6620 yuan/ton to 6500 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.81% during the period.

In the first half of the month, the toluene market mainly fluctuated within a certain range, with a slight overall upward trend. After the holiday, the market trading is generally average, and downstream demand for replenishment is maintained, resulting in limited actual transactions. The demand for oil blending industry in Shandong region is still good, driving the market atmosphere to recover. In South China region, due to low inventory, the market atmosphere is good, and the listing prices of main refineries are relatively firm. The overall market is stable, with a slightly strong performance. Later, with the fluctuation of crude oil prices, the sentiment of the toluene market was affected, and the market operated weakly, resulting in a slight decrease in prices.

Late of the month: The toluene market as a whole is running weakly, and market prices have been slightly lowered multiple times. The performance of the oil blending industry in Shandong region is average, with xylene prices operating at a low level. Some purchasing refineries tend to purchase xylene, and there is a lack of demand support for the weak operation of the toluene market.

Cost aspect: The crude oil market has fluctuated and fallen this month, with price ranges fluctuating in the first half of the month. After entering the second half, prices first fell and then rose. On February 27th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $70.35 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $73.57 per barrel.

Supply side: Sinopec’s toluene enterprise is operating normally, with stable production of equipment and many products for personal use, resulting in stable production and sales. As of February 28th, East China Company quoted 6500 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6400 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6600-6700 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6550 yuan/ton.

Demand side:

On February 28th, the execution price of xylene by the petrochemical sales company was 7500 yuan/ton, and this price was implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other units operated stably and sold normally, with a price increase of 200 yuan/ton compared to January 31st. As of February 27th, the closing prices of the xylene market in Asia were 841-843 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 866-868 US dollars/ton CFR China.

Market forecast: The overall trend of crude oil is weak in the near future, and there is insufficient guidance for the toluene market. Recently, there has been a shortage of production in northern enterprises on the supply side, coupled with maintenance of some facilities in central China, which has led to an overall tight supply of toluene in the domestic market. However, port inventory has been relatively sufficient in recent times, and there are mixed negative and positive factors on the supply side, resulting in slight differences in market performance across different regions. From the demand side, recent purchases in Shandong region have mainly relied on the chemical and oil blending industries, with low inventory levels in factories. Overall, demand in other regions is still weak, and market trading is relatively quiet. Overall, there are significant regional differences in the toluene market, with Shandong continuing to maintain a stable to strong trend in the future, while other regions lack demand support and overall price trends are weak.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic 1 # lead ingot market will rise in February 2025, with an average price of 16750 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 17005 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly increase of 1.52%.

On February 28th, the Business Society Lead Index was 103.49, up 0.03 points from yesterday, down 22.77% from the highest point of 134.01 points during the cycle (2016-11-29), and up 38.67% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, in the form of a bar chart, reflects the weekly or monthly price changes. Investors can make buying and selling investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-pillar represents the range of rise and fall.

The lead market in February mainly showed a gradual recovery of supply and demand after the Spring Festival. In early February, both the supply and demand sides of the market showed a flat performance, and the lead price fluctuated mainly due to macroeconomic news and financial push. With the end of the Spring Festival holiday, both the supply and demand sides of the lead market are gradually recovering. After a brief rise, lead prices rebounded in the middle of the month and stabilized slightly at the end of the month.

On the raw material side, the progress of overseas mines resuming production has been delayed, and it is expected that their output will not show significant growth in the short term. In China, although mines have reduced production due to seasonal factors.

On the supply and demand side, as the festive atmosphere gradually dissipates, lead-acid battery companies are gradually resuming production. Since these enterprises have relatively limited stock of raw materials before the festival, it is expected that they will face some demand for stock replenishment after the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival). This demand will help to digest the current backlog of primary lead inventory in the market, thereby providing some support for lead prices.

Although lead-acid battery companies are resuming work and production, the current terminal consumption performance in the lead-acid battery market is not strong. The order situation of production enterprises has not shown obvious signs of improvement, and the consumption of lead is still mainly based on essential needs. This means that although the demand for replenishment may have a positive impact on lead prices, the weakness of end consumption may still limit the upward space for lead prices.

In February, the demand for recycled waste batteries was relatively tight, and production resumed slowly. The expected increase was relatively small, with a slight increase compared to January. It is expected that the pace of supply recovery will increase in March.

Overall, market sentiment has improved at the macro level, with slow resumption of production of recycled lead and a rebound in downstream lead-acid battery companies’ production. There are expectations of material replenishment in the future, and it is expected that lead prices will experience strong fluctuations in the short term.

In February, the raw material side was supported at a high level, and the hydrofluoric acid market trend was relatively strong. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 26th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 11933.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.77% from the beginning of the month.

On the raw material side, the price of fluorite remains high, with some regions raising prices by around 100 yuan/ton. The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Although the rectification action is coming to an end, the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight. The price of fluorite provides positive support for the hydrofluoric acid market. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 26th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s fluorite was 3628.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.35% compared to the beginning of this month (3616.25 yuan/ton).

The market price of sulfuric acid is showing an upward trend. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 25th, the benchmark price of sulfuric acid in Shengyi Society was 430.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.69% compared to the beginning of this month (385.00 yuan/ton). It is expected that the sulfuric acid market will continue to operate at a high level in the later stage, which will provide strong support for the hydrofluoric acid market.

Demand side: Downstream refrigerant companies have increased their demand for hydrofluoric acid. The trading atmosphere in the refrigerant industry is good, with a surge in orders for some refrigerant products, with a daily increase of 2000 yuan/ton. R134a has surpassed 44000 yuan/ton, setting a new annual high. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 26th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society R134a was 38000.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.79% compared to the beginning of this month (37333.33 yuan/ton).

Market forecast: The market price of hydrofluoric acid raw materials continues to rise, supported by strong costs. In addition, the downstream refrigerant industry has a good trading atmosphere, leading to price increases and increased demand. Recently, the bidding price for hydrogen fluoride market has been implemented, with prices in East China ranging from 11500-11600 yuan/ton, an increase of 400-500 yuan/ton from early February. Supported by favorable supply and demand, it is expected that the hydrofluoric acid market will continue to show a strong trend in the later stage. More attention should be paid to the market supply and demand situation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 21, the average price of acetic acid was 2880 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton compared to the price of 2830 yuan/ton on February 15, an increase of 1.77%, and a decrease of 2.37% compared to the beginning of the month.

This week, the acetic acid market continued to operate strongly, and enterprise quotations continued to rise. On the supply side, domestic acetic acid companies are scheduled for maintenance, resulting in a decrease in on-site capacity utilization. At the beginning of the week, acetic acid companies’ quotations rose sharply, while downstream factories started production, resulting in decent demand and positive market transactions. With the support of favorable suppliers during the week, acetic acid quotations continued to increase.

As of February 21st, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions are as follows:

Region/ February 15th/ February 21st/ rise and fall

South China region/ 2900 yuan/ton/ 3000 yuan/ton/ +100

North China region/ 2730 yuan/ton/ 2805 yuan/ton/ +75

Shandong region/ 2780 yuan/ton/ 2830 yuan/ton/ +50

Jiangsu region/ 2825 yuan/ton/ 2850 yuan/ton/ +25

Zhejiang region/ 2925 yuan/ton/ 2975 yuan/ton/ +50

The upstream methanol market is fluctuating. From February 15th to 21st, the average domestic market price increased from 2578 yuan/ton to 2598 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 0.78%. The utilization rate of methanol production capacity remained high during the week. Although downstream external procurement boosted the mainland market, rational procurement was mainly maintained, and overall trading in the mainland market was weak and volatile.

The downstream acetic anhydride market has seen a narrow upward adjustment. On February 21st, the average ex factory price of acetic anhydride was 5110 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.49% compared to the price of 5085 yuan/ton on February 15th. The upstream acetic acid market continues to rise, and the cost of acetic anhydride is favorable. Enterprise quotations have increased significantly, and the demand side is following up on demand. Acetic anhydride prices have slightly increased during the week.

Market forecast: Business Society’s acetic acid analyst believes that the current utilization rate of acetic acid production capacity is not high, and the supplier’s mentality is strong. Next week, domestic equipment maintenance or normal operation may resume, and the market supply will increase. Downstream actively follows up, and the supply and demand in the market are relatively balanced. It is expected that the acetic acid market will narrow and stabilize in the later stage, and the overall operation will be stable. The market will pay attention to downstream follow-up situation.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 21, the price of lead 1 # was 16975 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.26% from the lead price of 17020 yuan/ton on February 17.

This week’s market analysis

The lead price continued to decline in the early part of this week and rebounded over the weekend.

Native lead

The progress of resuming production of overseas mines has been delayed, and it is expected that their output will not show significant growth in the short term. In China, although mines have reduced production due to seasonal factors, the impact of mine production reduction on the production of primary lead is relatively small due to the fact that the reserve scale of primary lead smelters in this round exceeded the historical normal level in winter. In addition, although smelters in Qinghai and other regions have experienced a slight decline in production due to equipment failures, overall, these unexpected factors have limited impact on the overall supply of primary lead, and it is expected that the production of primary lead will remain relatively stable in the short term.

Regenerated lead

With the resumption of production by recyclers, recycled lead smelters have reported an improvement in the arrival of raw materials, resulting in a decrease in the purchase price of waste batteries. It is expected that as the amount of scrapped batteries gradually recovers, the supporting role of waste battery prices on lead prices will become limited. From the perspective of smelting, according to the production schedule of various enterprises, the resumption of production of recycled lead smelters is increasing, and the supply of recycled lead is expected to maintain a growth trend in the short term.

Demand side

Lead acid battery companies have a strong enthusiasm for resuming production, and it is expected that the operating rate of lead acid batteries will continue to show an increasing trend in the future. This positive demand trend will provide some support for lead prices.

comprehensive analysis

In the short term, the supply and demand of the lead ingot market are strong, and the trend of lead prices is dominated by changes in the supply of recycled lead. The resumption of production of recycled lead is accelerating, and an increase in supply may put pressure on lead prices. It is expected that lead prices will maintain a weak and volatile trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from February 5th to 14th, the average price of BDO in China fell from 8400 yuan/ton to 8371 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.34% during the period, a month on month drop of 1.18%, and a year-on-year drop of 11.14%. The domestic BDO market is experiencing weak consolidation. The industry has a low capacity utilization rate and is experiencing long-term losses. The overall downstream load of the terminal has increased, leading to an increase in the digestion of raw materials. Both the supply and demand sides are supported, and the supply side maintains a stable market mentality.

On the supply side, new production capacity has not yet increased, and the overall capacity utilization rate of the industry has declined again, with some support from the supply side. The supply side is influenced by favorable factors.

On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: The supply of calcium carbide remains high, and temporary power restrictions can alleviate inventory pressure in the short term, but it is difficult to change the current situation of oversupply. Raw material methanol: The growth rate of the domestic methanol market is limited. As of 10:00 am on February 14th, the domestic price of methanol in Taicang is 2620 yuan/ton. The raw material calcium carbide market is weak, methanol prices are strong, and the impact on BDO costs is mixed.

On the demand side, downstream industries such as PTMEG, PBT, TPU, and PU slurry have seen a significant increase in load, leading to an increase in raw material digestion. Most industries in the industrial chain are in a loss making state, with limited ability to accept high prices for raw materials. They hold multiple contract orders to follow up, and their intention to purchase spot goods is not strong. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.

Market forecast: Some equipment will soon be shut down, and supply side support will increase again; And the industry is in a loss making state, and the supplier’s price mentality continues. The downstream load of the terminal has increased, leading to an increase in the digestion of raw materials. However, under cost pressure, spot purchases are cautious. Business analyst BDO predicts that the domestic BDO market has limited volatility.