The price of aluminum fluoride increased significantly in October

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 30th, the domestic quotation for aluminum fluoride was 11575 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.04% compared to the price of aluminum fluoride on October 1st, which was 10150 yuan/ton. Cost support, demand recovery, and fluctuating prices of aluminum fluoride in October.

The price of fluorite rose sharply in October and slightly declined

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 30th, the price of fluorite was 3762.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.99% compared to the price of fluorite on October 1st, which was 3550 yuan/ton. Environmental safety inspections, combined with the impact of accidents at some fluorite mines, have resulted in poor operation of fluorite mines, tight supply of fluorite ore, and an increase in fluorite prices. In mid to late October, the high price of fluorite fell, cost support weakened, and support for the rise of aluminum fluoride weakened.

The price of hydrofluoric acid stabilized after rising in October

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 30th, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 11500 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.66% compared to the price of hydrofluoric acid on October 1st, which was 10583.33 yuan/ton. Some hydrofluoric acid enterprises are still in shutdown, with hydrofluoric acid production starting at around 60%. There is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid, and the market for hydrofluoric acid is stagnant. The price of hydrofluoric acid has increased and then stabilized. In mid to late October, the price of hydrofluoric acid stabilized at a high level, and cost support weakened. However, there is still support for the rise of aluminum fluoride.

Ice crystal prices fell from their high point in October

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 30th, the price of cryolite was 7775 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.27% compared to the price of 7875 yuan/ton on October 1st. The cryolite market remains stable at a high level, and manufacturers’ quotations are firm and operating. Upstream product supply is tight, prices are rising at high levels, and the cost pressure on cryolite is increasing. The market mentality is bullish, but downstream power is insufficient, and there is a strong resistance towards high priced cryolite. Downstream customers follow up on demand, and cryolite prices have fallen from high levels, with insufficient support for the rise of aluminum fluoride.

Electrolytic aluminum prices fluctuated and fell in October

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 30th, the price of electrolytic aluminum was 19163.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.49% compared to the price of electrolytic aluminum on October 1st, which was 19856.67 yuan/ton. The peak season in October was not prosperous, and the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 2.7 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The demand for electrolytic aluminum was poor, and the downstream demand for aluminum fluoride was weak. The support for the rise of aluminum fluoride was weakened.

Market Overview and Forecast

Analysts from the fluoride aluminum industry at Business Society believe that in October, hydrofluoric acid fluctuated and rose, leading to a significant increase in fluorite prices and an increase in the cost of fluoride aluminum; In the latter half of the year, the price of fluorite fell from its high point, while the price of hydrofluoric acid fell from its high point. Cryolite has fallen from high levels, electrolytic aluminum has fluctuated and fallen, and demand for aluminum fluoride has decreased. Overall, the cost support for aluminum fluoride raw materials has weakened, and downstream demand is weak. There is insufficient support for the rise of aluminum fluoride, and it is expected that aluminum fluoride prices will fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of October 27, 2023, the domestic market price of organic silicon DMC was referenced at 14760 yuan/ton. Compared with October 1 (organic silicon DMC reference 14860 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.67%.

From the data monitoring chart of Business Society, it can be seen that in October, the overall domestic organic silicon DMC market showed a “first decline followed by” upward movement. In early October, after the end of the National Day holiday, the overall performance of the domestic organic silicon DMC market was weak and declining. The trading atmosphere on the organic silicon DMC market was cold, downstream demand was exhausted, and new orders were few. The supply of organic silicon DMC was under pressure, and the supply-demand contradiction continued to intensify. As a result, the market price of organic silicon DMC was continuously downward adjusted. On October 15th, the reference price of organic silicon DMC was 14540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.15% in the first ten days.

In late October, organic silicon DMC downstream restocked on dips, and some large factories’ shipment performance improved. The sentiment of low price reluctance on the market gradually rose. After the downstream demand received a phased boost, the organic silicon DMC market finally experienced a rebound, and the market price center continued to shift upward. On October 27th, the organic silicon DMC market price reference was around 14600-14900 yuan/ton, with a 1.51% increase in the later stage.

Prediction of the Future Trend of Organic Silicon DMC Market

At present, the trading atmosphere in the organic silicon DMC market is mild, and although the price continues to decline, the wait-and-see sentiment on the market is gradually rising. However, due to the long order schedule of leading factories, the market is still relatively high in price and spot circulation is still tight. Currently, the overall order acceptance performance of factories is still relatively smooth. Therefore, according to the organic silicon DMC data analyst of the Business Society, the domestic organic silicon DMC market is mainly stable, medium to strong in the short term.

This week’s lead market (10.13-10.20) fluctuated upwards, with the average price in the domestic market at 16300 yuan/ton last weekend and 16435 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, up 0.83%.

 The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-pillar indicates the range of fluctuations. The recent market trend has been relatively strong, with the lead ingot market rising for 10 consecutive weeks. After September, the overall market has slightly decreased.

In terms of supply and demand, some enterprises in the main production areas have maintenance plans after the holiday, while most of the enterprises that underwent preliminary maintenance have recently resumed normal production. The overall operating rate of primary lead has slightly increased compared to last month, and it is expected that the production will slightly increase within the month, indicating sufficient market supply. In terms of demand, as the weather turns colder, the traditional seasonal peak season has basically ended. However, this year’s overall peak season performance is average, and the overall peak season is not strong. Due to poor sales performance during the peak season and high inventory in the factory, active inventory removal is still the main focus. In terms of inventory, LME has accumulated to a new high in the past two years during this cycle, which has a certain impact on market sentiment. Overall, it is expected that lead prices will continue to face significant upward resistance and there may be room for a pullback.

On October 22, the base metal index stood at 1194 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 26.11% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and up 85.98% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, there were a total of 6 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose month on month in the 42nd week of 2023 (10.16-10.20) commodity price rise and fall list, with cobalt (4.25%), gold (2.21%), and lead (1.11%) among the top 3 commodities that rose. There are a total of 11 products that have decreased compared to the previous month, with nickel (-1.80%), praseodymium neodymium alloy (-1.53%), and zinc (-1.49%) ranking among the top three products. This week’s average increase or decrease was -0.07%.

Cobalt prices fluctuated and rose this week

According to the cobalt market analysis system of the Business Society, as of October 20th, the cobalt price was 272000 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.55% compared to the cobalt price of 257700 yuan/ton on October 13th; The cobalt price has increased by 6.67% compared to 255000 yuan/ton on October 1st. Cobalt market demand is expected to rebound, with domestic cobalt prices fluctuating and rising this week.

Expected increase in cobalt market demand

According to the latest report from Canalys, in the third quarter of 2023, the global smartphone market only fell by 1%, and the downward trend has slowed down. Driven by regional recovery and demand for new product upgrades, the global smartphone market achieved double-digit month on month growth in the third quarter before the peak season. Smartphone sales have surged month on month, with the upcoming Double Eleven promotion. smartphone sales are expected to rise in the fourth quarter, and demand in the cobalt market is expected to rebound.

Overview and outlook

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at Business Society, the expected rebound in mobile phone sales and the expected rebound in demand in the cobalt market. In terms of supply, the supply of cobalt ore in the Democratic Republic of Congo is sufficient, but the export of cobalt ore is limited due to insufficient transportation capacity. Overall, the supply and demand in the cobalt market have increased, but the expected recovery of cobalt market supply is faster than the expected growth of supply. In the future, cobalt prices are expected to consolidate strongly.

Recent price trends of hydrochloric acid

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price has slightly increased this week, with the average market price rising from 170.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 175.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 2.94%. The weekend price has increased by 9.38% year-on-year. On October 15th, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 46.05, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 66.60% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.89 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 156.12% from the lowest point of 17.98 points on September 5th, 2012. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Upstream support is average, while downstream demand is good

From the supply side perspective, the domestic hydrochloric acid market prices have slightly increased this week, and manufacturers’ inventory is average.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market has recently seen a high consolidation, with average cost support. The downstream market price of polyaluminum chloride slightly increased, with the market price rising from 1726.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1732.50 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.36%. The weekend price decreased by 14.13% year-on-year.

Future Market Forecast

In late October, the market price of hydrochloric acid may fluctuate and fall mainly. The upstream liquid chlorine market has recently stabilized at a high level, with average cost support. The downstream ammonium chloride and polyaluminum chloride markets have shown a downward trend, and downstream purchasing willingness has weakened. Analysts from Business Society believe that the recent slight fluctuations in the hydrochloric acid market have been the main trend.

Recent price trends of tetrahydrofuran

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of tetrahydrofuran in the domestic market decreased slightly this week. This week, the average price of tetrahydrofuran in the mainstream domestic market dropped from 13200.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 13075.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.95%. The weekend price fell by 28.36% year-on-year.

Insufficient upstream support, average downstream demand

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic tetrahydrofuran distributors have slightly decreased this week, with average inventory levels.

From the upstream raw material market of tetrahydrofuran, the market for 1,4-butanediol has slightly declined this week, with prices dropping from 11000.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 10685.71 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 2.86%, and a year-on-year decrease of 27.31% at the weekend. The market situation of maleic anhydride has slightly declined this week, with the price dropping from 8390.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 8000.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 4.65%. The weekend price has increased by 0.63% year-on-year. Overall, the upstream raw material market prices have slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. Affected by the supply and demand side, it has a bearish impact on the price of tetrahydrofuran.

From the downstream market situation of tetrahydrofuran, the spandex market price has stabilized at a high level this week. The price of spandex is 34250.00 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.19% over the weekend. Downstream spandex market prices have stabilized at high levels, and downstream customers are generally proactive in purchasing tetrahydrofuran.

Future prospects

In late October, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may experience slight fluctuations and declines. The upstream 1,4-butanediol and maleic anhydride markets have slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. The downstream spandex market has stabilized at a high level, and downstream demand is average. Business Society tetrahydrofuran analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may experience minor fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the auction price of crude benzene for the week from October 6 to October 13, 2023 was lowered, with 6972.5 yuan/ton last weekend and 6753.75 yuan/ton this weekend, a decrease of 3.14%.

In terms of crude oil: This week, the crude oil market rose first and then fell, with a high volatility trend being the main trend. On October 12th, international crude oil futures showed mixed ups and downs. US WTI crude oil futures closed higher, with the main contract settlement price at $82.91 per barrel, up 0.58 US dollars or 0.7%. Brent crude oil futures fell, with the main contract settlement price at $86.00 per barrel, a decrease of $0.18 or 0.2%.

The factory price of Sinopec pure benzene has been reduced by 350 yuan/ton during this cycle, and currently it is priced at 7850 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7700 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7850 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 7703 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7700 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 7850 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen a positive trend in recent times. After ten consecutive weeks of decline, it has risen for six consecutive weeks, slightly declined for three consecutive weeks, and fell for four consecutive weeks after two consecutive weeks of upward trend.

From the perspective of the industry chain, crude oil rose first and then fell after the holiday, affecting the market mentality of the pure benzene industry chain. However, some downstream units may have maintenance plans after the holiday, and the market expects weak demand in the future. Sinopec has lowered the listing price of pure benzene to 7850 yuan/ton twice in a row within the week, with a cumulative decrease of 350 yuan/ton. The spot market for pure benzene has continuously declined, while hydrogenation benzene has followed suit, with a weekly decline of 200-350 yuan/ton.

This week, the overall performance of the pure benzene market was weak, while the hydrogenation benzene market followed a decline. The overall decline in the industrial chain led to a decline in the auction price of crude benzene this week. The Shandong region executed a price of 6700 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 260 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, the price of raw material coke coal has increased, and the cost of coke enterprises entering the furnace is relatively high. Coupled with some regional production restriction plans, recent coke enterprises have slightly decreased their production, and the supply of crude benzene is slightly tight. In terms of demand, the operating rate of hydrogenation benzene enterprises has slightly decreased recently, but the overall change is limited. There is still a demand for crude benzene, and some enterprises will replenish their inventory as needed after the holiday. In the future, crude oil is expected to fluctuate and decline, with a strong atmosphere in the market. Downstream demand is expected to weaken, highlighting bearish factors in the market. It is expected that the hydrogenation benzene market will be mainly weak next week.

In September 2023, the overall market for viscose staple fibers was relatively strong, and the price center shifted slightly upwards. The prices of viscose staple fiber raw materials such as dissolved pulp and auxiliary materials such as caustic soda have generally increased, with strong cost support, which has a strong support and driving effect on the price of viscose staple fiber. The start-up rate of the viscose staple fiber industry has basically maintained, and the overall industry load has increased to around 79%. Manufacturers’ inventory pressure is not high, and shipments are slightly tight. Downstream people’s cotton yarn is relatively flat, with few new orders and just a need for restocking. Overall, the shipment is stable, and the price is stable with some increase. The demand from downstream weaving manufacturers is still relatively flat, and the improvement is not significant.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, in September 2023, the price center of viscose staple fiber shifted upwards. As of September 28, the domestic factory quotation for 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber was 13480 yuan/ton, an increase of 180 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, with a monthly increase of 1.35%.

In terms of cost: In September, the prices of raw materials such as dissolved pulp and acid alkali generally increased. Hunan and Shandong manufacturers produced broad-leaved dissolved pulp, and the quotation for domestic dissolved pulp was raised to around 7500-7600 yuan/ton, an increase of about 400 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month. A new round of imported dissolved pulp quotations has been introduced, with a transaction volume of 860 US dollars per ton for imported broadleaf dissolved pulp and around 870-880 US dollars per ton for needle leaf dissolved pulp, an increase of 30 US dollars per ton compared to before. In September, the auxiliary material caustic soda for viscose staple fibers continued to rise, which has a strong support and driving effect on the price of viscose staple fibers. The average market price of caustic soda in Shandong province was 795 yuan/ton on September 1st, and 1021 yuan/ton on September 28th, with a monthly increase of 28.4%.

Supply demand: The operating rate of the viscose staple fiber industry is basically maintained, and the overall industry load has risen to around 79%. The inventory pressure of manufacturers is not high, and shipments are slightly tight. The human cotton yarn factory mainly consumes inventory, and the enthusiasm for replenishment is currently not high. The sales of downstream ring spun human cotton yarn have not shown much improvement, while vortex spinning is relatively good. The demand of downstream weaving manufacturers is still relatively flat, and the improvement is not significant.

Downstream cotton yarn market

In September 2023, with cost support, the overall market for human cotton yarn remained stable, with prices steadily rising and overall sales average. As of September 28th, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spun, first class) was 17650 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, with a monthly increase of 0.57%. There are not many new orders that just need to be restocked, and the overall shipment is average. The demand from downstream weaving manufacturers is still relatively flat, and the improvement is not significant.

Future Market Forecast

The textile market is currently in a traditional peak season, with strong cost support. The inventory of the viscose staple fiber industry is at a medium to low level, which is expected to bring a strong boost to the price of viscose staple fibers. Analysts from Business Society predict that in the short term, the overall market for viscose staple fibers and rayon yarn will be relatively strong, and prices will slightly increase.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the reference average price of 55% powdered monoammonium on September 1st was 3050 yuan/ton. On September 28th, the reference average price of 55% powdered monoammonium was 3083 yuan/ton, and the market price of monoammonium phosphate increased by 1.09% this month.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the reference average price of 64% diammonium chloride on September 1st was 3828 yuan/ton. On September 28th, the reference average price of 64% diammonium chloride was 3875 yuan/ton. The market price of diammonium phosphate increased by 1.31% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of ammonium phosphate increased first and then decreased this month. In early September, the market price of ammonium phosphate increased. The prices of raw materials such as phosphate ore and sulfur have increased, resulting in increased cost-effectiveness. Under the support of pending orders in the monoammonium phosphate market, the market continues to be strong and upward. The spot price of diammonium phosphate in the market is tight, and as the autumn wheat fertilizer needs to follow up, the price of diammonium phosphate continues to strengthen. In mid to late September, the market for ammonium phosphate weakened. The price of raw material phosphate rock has increased, the price of raw material sulfur has decreased, and the cost side is mixed. There are relatively few new orders in the monoammonium phosphate market, but there is still support from pending orders. The diammonium phosphate market is operating steadily, and enterprises are executing domestic and foreign pending orders. Downstream demand has weakened, and the market trading atmosphere is not good. As of September 28th, the market price of 55 powdered ammonium in Hubei region is around 3050 yuan/ton, while the factory price of 55 powdered ammonium in Henan region is around 3100 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations being the main focus. The 64% market quotation for diammonium in Yunnan is around 3650-3750 yuan/ton, while the 64% market quotation for diammonium in Shandong is around 3850-4000 yuan/ton. The actual transaction is negotiated.

In terms of raw phosphorus ore, the overall domestic phosphorus ore market rose and operated this month. Entering September, the trading atmosphere in domestic phosphate ore mines has improved, downstream demand and stock up have increased, and the supply of mid to high-end grade phosphate ore is constantly tightening. The on-site spot circulation is tight, and with the support of both supply and demand, the market price of mid to high-end grade phosphate ore is constantly approaching the high-end. As of September 28th, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China is around 970 yuan/ton. Compared with September 1st, 2023 (reference price of phosphate ore is 866 yuan/ton), the price has increased by 104 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.01%.

The market for raw material sulfur has seen domestic sulfur prices rise first and then fall this month, with an overall downward trend being the main trend. The sulfur refinery unit is operating normally and the supply of goods is stable. The weakening of demand in the terminal phosphate fertilizer market has led to demand based purchasing, which has a negative impact on sulfur. The on-site trading was average, and the industry’s mentality was not good, leading to a reduction in the refinery’s quotation for inventory control. As of September 28th, the reference average price of sulfur in China is 1016.67 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from the Business Society believe that the ammonium phosphate market has been steadily consolidating and operating in recent days. Cost support is still being added to the support of pending orders, resulting in a strong market for ammonium phosphate. At present, downstream demand is weak, waiting for the release of terminal demand in autumn. It is expected that the short-term consolidation of ammonium phosphate prices will be the main trend.