1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business community, the price of PVC spot market rose in December. The average price of domestic PVC was 6008.57 yuan/ton on December 1, 6125 yuan/ton on December 28, and the price rose 1.94% in the month.

2、 Market analysis

In December, the price of PVC spot market rose in shock. In the first ten days of the year, the market price rose first and then fell. The downstream demand was general, and the number of new orders was limited. The market price rose mainly in the middle of the year. Under the influence of macro policies, market confidence increased and prices rose. The price fluctuated slightly in the last ten days, and the manufacturer’s price was mainly stable. At present, near the Spring Festival holiday, PVC downstream products will be replenished on demand, and traders will get the goods properly, so the market atmosphere will improve. The quotation range of PVC 5 carbide in China is around 5600-6350 yuan/ton.

In terms of international crude oil, international crude oil futures closed lower on February 28. The settlement price of the main contract of US WTI crude oil futures was 78.96 US dollars/barrel, down 0.57 US dollars or 0.7%. The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 83.99 dollars/barrel, down 0.69 dollars or 0.8%.

In terms of calcium carbide, the mainstream factory price of calcium carbide in northwest China fell slightly in December. The price of calcium carbide fell from 3750 yuan/ton on December 1 to 3700 yuan/ton on December 28, a decline of 1.33%. The upstream carbon price was consolidated at a high level, with good cost support. The downstream PVC market rose slightly, and the demand for calcium carbide increased.

3、 Future market forecast

PVC analysts from the business community believe that the price of PVC spot market rose in a volatile manner this month. The downstream of PVC will be replenished as needed near the Spring Festival holiday, and traders will take the goods appropriately. It is expected that in the short term, the PVC spot market will continue to operate mainly with small fluctuations.

The price of ethylene oxide has been trading sideways for a long time

According to the data of the business society, the average price of ethylene oxide in the domestic spot market on December 26 was 6800 yuan/ton, which has been sideways for a long time. Since October 31, it has been weak and stable for 56 days.

At present, the listing price of ethylene oxide in various regions in China is basically stable, and the factory listing price of mainstream markets in various regions is as follows:

The ethylene oxide market in East China is 6800 yuan/ton; Ethylene oxide market in South China is 6800 yuan/ton; The listing price of ethylene oxide market in central China is 6800 yuan/ton; The listed price of ethylene oxide in North China is 6800 yuan/ton, and that of some manufacturers in Northeast China is 6600 yuan/ton.

Overview of ethylene oxide industry chain

On the whole, weak downstream demand is the main reason for the weak and stable price of ethylene oxide. From the perspective of price transmission, the demand for downstream products has weakened, the price has declined, and the price support for ethylene oxide has weakened.

Fundamentals Overview

On the cost side, the price support of raw ethylene is relatively weak; At the current supply end, except for long-term shutdown devices in the early stage, the devices in production are basically operating normally, and the load is adjusted as required. In October, a new 730000 tons of new devices were put into operation in Satellite Petrochemical, and the domestic ethylene oxide production capacity rose to 7.51 million tons. At present, the capacity operation rate is about 60%. The overall supply is still loose. In terms of demand, the downstream demand is weak. The demand for polycarboxylic acid water reducer monomer in the main downstream is expected to weaken greatly due to insufficient terminal building construction conditions. At present, the inventory of polycarboxylic acid water reducer monomer enterprises has accumulated to a medium high level, the enthusiasm of enterprises for production has declined, and the purchasing atmosphere for ethylene oxide is weak.

Future market forecast

The terminal demand is weak and the demand is restrained. At present, the price of ethylene oxide has been sideways for a long time, the supply and demand fundamentals have not improved, and the operation is weak in the short term.

DOTP prices rose first and then fell this week

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of December 16, the average price of DOTP was 9900 yuan/ton, up 2.59% from the average price of 9650 yuan/ton on December 9. The cost rises and the demand is weak, and the DOTP price rises first and then falls.

The price of raw materials rose in shock this week

According to the data of the business association; As of December 16, the price of isooctanol was 9666.67 yuan/ton, up 5.84% from 9133.33 yuan/ton on December 9. The epidemic prevention and control was relaxed, the operating rate of isooctanol rose, the demand for plasticizers was not as warm as expected, and the price of isooctanol rose first and then fell.

According to the data of the business community, as of December 16, the PTA price was 5340 yuan/ton, up 2.95% from the price of 5187.08 yuan/ton on December 9. International crude oil prices fell first and then rose, PTA costs rose, PTA demand rebounded, and PTA prices rose in shock.

Future market expectation

According to DOTP data analysts of the business association, the plasticizer DOTP raw material isooctanol rose first and then fell this week, PTA prices rose in shock, and the cost of plasticizer DOTP raw material rose. In general, the demand for DOTP cost rise has not recovered as expected, and it is expected that DOTP will become stable in the future.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the figure above, the domestic market of imported potassium chloride rose slightly this week, with the price rising from 3883.33 yuan/ton at the weekend to 3900.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 0.43%. The arrival price of potassium chloride in domestic salt lakes this week is 3500-3600 yuan/ton. On December 18, the potassium chloride (import) commodity index was 102.63, unchanged from yesterday, 29.09% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 144.74 (2022-06-21), and 6.12% higher than the lowest point of 96.71 on September 16, 2021. (Note: Period refers to 2021-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of domestic mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers rose slightly this week.

From the downstream market of potassium chloride, the factory price of potassium carbonate fell slightly this week, from 9225.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 9175.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a drop of 0.54%, 12.81% higher than the same period last year. The factory price of potassium nitrate fell slightly this week, from 5875.00 yuan/ton at the weekend to 5850.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a drop of 0.43%, 0.85% lower than the same period last year. On the whole, the downstream market of potassium chloride fell slightly, and downstream customers’ demand for potassium chloride weakened.

3、 Future market forecast

The overall trend of potassium chloride market in late December was dominated by narrow shocks. The price of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and Zangger was adjusted at a low level. The downstream market of potassium chloride fell slightly, and the downstream demand was weakened, mainly for the purchase of steel. International potash fertilizer prices continued to fall. Potassium chloride analysts from the business community believe that the domestic potassium chloride import price may fall slightly in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the hydrogen peroxide market fell steadily in December, and the price fell continuously. At the beginning of the month, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the market was 766 yuan/ton. On the 16th, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the market was 743 yuan/ton, down 3.04%.

Downward terminal demand Hydrogen peroxide market fell for half a month

Since December, the operating rate of hydrogen peroxide terminal printing, paper industry and other industries has declined, the enthusiasm for purchasing hydrogen peroxide has declined, and the turnover has been flat. The hydrogen peroxide market continues to decline in a weak way, mainly by more than 3%, and the mainstream quotation has dropped to 740 yuan/ton.

Li Bing, an hydrogen peroxide analyst from the business community, believes that the demand of the terminal industry is sluggish, and the hydrogen peroxide market is dominated by a weak decline in the future market.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of December 15, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was 8400 yuan/ton. Compared with December 15 (7566 yuan/ton), the price was increased by 834 yuan/ton, or 11.01%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that this week (12.09-12.15), the n-butanol market in Shandong Province in China as a whole showed a broad rise, with an increase of 11.01% within the week. The main factors supporting the rise of n-butanol market are from the following two aspects.

In terms of supply, at present, the production of n-butanol units in some regions of China is reduced, the on-site inventory is controllable, and the pressure on the supply side is small, which supports the rising market of n-butanol.

On the demand side, the downstream replenishment of n-butanol was positive this week, the market transaction was relatively smooth, the trading atmosphere was good, and the demand side was also supported by n-butanol.

In terms of cost, the recent raw material propylene market is stable and rising, while the cost of n-butanol is stable. As of December 15, the market price of n-butanol in Shandong Province in China was around 8400-8500 yuan/ton, and the weekly price increase was 200-400 yuan/ton.

Post market analysis of n-butanol

The year 2023 is coming, and many regions in China have welcomed good news one after another. The downstream demand circulation of n-butanol has improved, and the supply is expected to decline. The n-butanol data engineer of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market is mainly stable and strong, and more attention should be paid to the specific information changes on the supply and demand side.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of December 9, 2022, the market price reference of domestic industrial propylene glycol was 7666 yuan/ton, and on December 5 (the reference price of propylene glycol was 7766 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 100 yuan/ton, or 1.29%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that this week (12.05-12.09), the overall weakness of the domestic propylene glycol market fell. In this week, the trading atmosphere of propylene glycol in the market was relatively light as a whole, and the market price decline in the week was about 100-200 yuan/ton. On December 9, the domestic propylene glycol market price was around 7400-7800 yuan/ton. The main factors of market trend are as follows:

Supply: In December, a new propylene glycol unit was put into production, the overall supply of the site was increased, the wait-and-see mentality was increased, and the buying atmosphere was light.

On the demand side, the UPR plant downstream of propylene glycol started generally, and the demand side follow-up was limited. Therefore, the demand side gave propylene glycol a weak support.

Future trend analysis

At present, the transaction of propylene glycol new orders is average. Most downstream companies need to purchase propylene glycol. Although the demand is insufficient, the propylene glycol market price has been relatively low, and the risk of a sharp decline in the market is small. In addition, the macro benefits are gradually released, and there may be a stock plan for downstream companies before the year. Therefore, the propylene glycol data engineer of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market will be mainly stable, organized and operated, More attention should be paid to the information changes on the supply and demand side.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid rose slightly. As of the 12th day, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 12757.14 yuan/ton, up 0.11% from the 5th day’s price of 12742.86 yuan/ton, up 0.29% year on year.

The price trend of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in China has risen slightly. Recently, the temperature in the north has dropped sharply, and some devices have not been started. The spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is tight. The operating rate of hydrofluoric acid declined in the overhaul of some manufacturers in the south, which affected the price trend to rise. Up to now, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the southern region is 12400-12700 yuan/ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 12500-12800 yuan/ton. In terms of export, the export price is higher than the domestic market price due to problems such as content and packaging. The export price is about 14000 yuan/ton.

The price of raw material fluorite rose this week. As of the 12th day, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3387.5 yuan/ton, 2.07% higher than the price of 3318.75 yuan/ton on the 5th day. Since April, the price of fluorite has risen unilaterally. Since the middle of October, the price has reached a high level. At present, the price is at the peak of the year. The operating rate of fluorite mines remains low. Mining enterprises are facing increasingly stringent safety and environmental protection requirements, resulting in insufficient operation of fluorite mines. There is a shortage of fluorite raw materials in China. The commencement of fluorite flotation is limited, and the spot supply is insufficient. In addition, the import of fluorite is limited. The epidemic situation in Inner Mongolia is serious, the transportation of fluorite is difficult, and the supply of fluorite is very tight. The cost of hydrofluoric acid drives the market up.

The market of the downstream refrigerant products of the terminal is average, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry is maintained. At present, the price trend of refrigerant R22 is temporarily stable, the market supply is normal, and the demand for R22 market applications is guaranteed. The market quotation of R22 is in the range of 18000-19000 yuan/ton. The domestic R134a price fell slightly, the trichloroethylene price was temporarily stable, the cost support was still in place, and the R134a trading focus remained stable. At present, the R134a market quotation is in the range of 24,000-26,000 yuan/ton. Previously, downstream refrigerant enterprises were all trading at a loss in order to compete for HFC production quota. With the implementation of three generation refrigerant quota, the history of quota competition in the refrigerant industry is coming to an end, and the price of hydrofluoric acid is rising due to the cost.

In the future, the market of fluorine chemical industry has improved, the price of raw material fluorite has remained high, the price of sulfuric acid raw material has risen, and the price trend of downstream refrigerant products has temporarily stabilized. In addition, the domestic supply of hydrofluoric acid has been slightly strained recently, and the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain have been well supported. Chen Ling, a hydrofluoric acid analyst from the business community, believes that the price trend of the hydrofluoric acid market may rise in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of baking soda was temporarily stable this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the weekend was 2527.5 yuan/ton, down 24.17% year on year. On December 11, the sodium bicarbonate commodity index was 167.75, unchanged from yesterday, down 28.87% from the peak of 235.84 (2021-11-10) in the cycle, and up 90.04% from the low of 88.27 on December 22, 2020. (Note: Period refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the business community, the price of baking soda is temporarily stable, and the downstream market is in general demand recently. The current price of baking soda in Henan is about 2500-2700 yuan/ton. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the overall price of soda ash this week is mainly stable, and the price is large, stable and small. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is about 2550-2750 yuan/ton. The price of soda ash in North China is temporarily stable, and the current market price of light soda ash is about 2650-2750 yuan/ton. At present, soda ash enterprises maintain low inventory.

Demand: downstream medicine, textile and food demand for baking soda is average. In terms of raw materials, according to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of soda ash this week was stable and dynamic. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of soda ash this week was largely stable and slightly dynamic. The average market price of light soda ash was 2638 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 2640 yuan/ton at the weekend. The price rose by 0.08%, down 12.73% compared with the same period last year. In the downstream, medicine, textile and food are mostly purchased on demand. In general, the price of sodium bicarbonate in the short term or consolidation operation is determined by the downstream market demand.

Spot price: spot price of domestic polyester staple fiber continued to fall this week (12.5-12.9). According to the price monitoring of the business community, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber was about 7202 yuan/ton on December 9, down 1.64% from Monday and up 2.79% from the same period last year.

Futures market: the main force of short fiber futures this week was first restrained and then increased. On Friday, the main contract of short fiber PF futures closed at 6684, up 0.27% from the closing price last week. The settlement price is 6604 yuan. This week, the main domestic staple fiber upstream raw material PTA futures fell 3.31% to close at 5028, and the main ethylene glycol futures rose 2.35% to close at 4049.

The market’s concern about the weak crude oil demand caused by the global economic recession and the continued tightening measures taken by the Federal Reserve to curb inflation put pressure on oil prices. The main force of US oil futures fell by 10.8% for the whole week and closed near US $71.6 per barrel (as of 16:30 on the 9th Beijing time). However, influenced by the news that the Keystone oil pipeline was forced to close due to the leakage accident and that the United States may buy crude oil to supplement its strategic crude oil reserves, the crude oil price rebounded over the weekend. The sharp drop in crude oil price weakened the support for PTA cost, and PTA’s new production capacity was put into operation later than the market expectation, but some units were restarted. The downstream polyester industry has high inventory, new orders continue to decline under the background of the off-season of the terminal market, demand continues to be weak, and PTA prices continue to decline. This week, domestic ethylene glycol plants have been restarted and new plants are planned to be put into production. Supply has picked up slightly. A 750000 ton plant in the United States is planned to be shut down. Downstream polyester continued to reduce production and the starting load reached a new low, and textile terminal demand continued to be depressed. The price of ethylene glycol rebounded slightly, boosted by the large decline in the early period and the news of overseas device parking. This week, some large staple fiber plants continued to reduce production, and Luoyang Petrochemical Plant was restarted. The terminal demand is sluggish. The orders of the downstream yarn mills and weaving mills of staple fiber are poor, and the work starts to decline. The demand for polyester staple fiber is weak, and the production and sales of staple fiber continue to decline. The price continues to decline. But in the next half week, with the implementation of the new policy of national epidemic control, local terminal demand has slightly warmed up, and the production and sales of staple fiber have improved. This week, the price of pure polyester yarn and polyester cotton yarn continued to move down due to the weakening of cost end support and the continuous downturn of terminal demand. The focus of prices continued to move down, and the negotiation of goods delivery was maintained. Some preferential policies were expanded. The opening rate of northern regions was boosted by the policy of opening up epidemic prevention and control.

In the future, the support for the cost side of staple fiber raw materials is weak, and downstream demand continues to be sluggish. At the end of the year, the phenomenon of textile enterprises giving annual leave in advance gradually increases, and staple fiber may continue to accumulate. However, with the gradual relaxation of national epidemic control, some provinces and cities such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang have rushed to the sea for orders, and terminal demand may recover. At present, the absolute price of staple fiber is also at a low level within the year, and the short-term price of staple fiber may show a strong trend of shock. Pay attention to the price trend of raw materials, plant dynamics and the recovery of downstream orders.