The sulfur commodity index on October 29 was 51.58, unchanged with yesterday, down 50.33% from the peak of 103.84 point (2011-11-02), and 100.00% higher than the lowest point of 25.79 on February 24, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average price of sulfur production in East China is 940 yuan / ton. On the 30th, the domestic refineries quoted prices according to their own shipment. The sulfur quotations in North China and Shandong remained stable for the time being, and the sulfur market remained stable and upward. Domestic refineries in various regions maintain low inventory operation, downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general, and the market is mainly cautious and wait-and-see. The mainstream price of solid sulfur in Sinopec North China is 810-830 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of solid sulfur in Sinopec East China is 890-1200 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of solid sulfur in Sinopec Shandong is 960-970 yuan / ton.

In terms of sulfuric acid, the domestic market is running differently. The market of sulfuric acid in Shandong is weak and stable. The inventory of enterprises is low. The downstream demand is good. The market purchase is active and the market transaction atmosphere is good. In the aspect of phosphate fertilizer, the market export and domestic demand were stable, the price trend of Monoammonium and diammonium rose slightly, the winter storage market was carried out, the on-site inquiry was positive, the order was sufficient, and the market continued to be good.

Aftermarket forecast: at present, the price of domestic sulfur market is firm, the quotation of sulfur enterprises is mainly stable, the shipment is smooth, and the short-term sulfur market is expected to be stable temporarily.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus rose this month. At the beginning of the month, the average price of yellow phosphorus was 15650 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 16200 yuan / ton. The price rose within the month by 3.51%.

2、 Market analysis

The price of domestic yellow phosphorus rose this month. At present, the spot sales of yellow phosphorus market are basically normal, the spot is a little nervous, and the manufacturers are reluctant to sell. The price in Yunnan increased rapidly, followed by Guizhou, and gradually increased in Sichuan. Up to now, the mainstream price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 16400 yuan / ton; that in Guizhou is about 16200 yuan / ton; in Sichuan, it is about 16000 yuan / ton. The price of phosphorus in Yunnan Province is close to the level, and the enterprises in Sichuan Province are required to cut the price of phosphorus and water. At present, the yellow phosphorus enterprises still intend to raise the price, but the downstream acceptance is general, and the procurement is cautious. Generally, they take as much as they use.

In terms of raw materials, according to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, as of October 26, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in domestic mainstream areas was around 386.67 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as a week ago. Compared with October 1, the average price was increased by 10 yuan / ton, or 2.65%. At present, the quotation of 30% grade phosphate ore in Guizhou is 300-360 yuan / ton, that of 28% grade phosphate ore is 280-320 yuan / ton, that of Guizhou Xifeng phosphate mine company is 350 yuan / ton, that of Guizhou Kaiyang Guanglong mining is 300 yuan / ton, and that of Guizhou Fuquan Huifa is 280 yuan / ton. At present, the phosphate ore market in Yunnan and Hubei is in stable operation. The quotation of 28% grade phosphate ore in Yunnan is around 270-290 yuan / ton, and that of 30% grade phosphate rock in Hubei Province is 380-400 yuan / ton.

The price of coke market is stable. As of the 28th, the mainstream price of Panzhihua coke (secondary metallurgical coke) was 2230 yuan / ton, temporarily stable compared with the previous trading day, and 100 yuan / ton higher than the same period last month. On the 28th, the price of coke market was stable and the policy in Shanxi was tight, which had a certain impact on the start-up of local coking enterprises. The coke demand of downstream steel mills is still good, and some steel mills have larger demand for replenishment. In terms of ports, the spot prices of the two ports in Shandong Province tend to be strong, the prices are high and stable, and the market is relatively cold. In the near future, the market will focus on the impact of the implementation of the elimination capacity of coking enterprises on supply.

In terms of demand, the current market price consolidation of phosphoric acid is the main. As of October 27, the average market price of 85% industrial purified water phosphoric acid is about 4950 yuan / ton, the price in Sichuan is 4700-5400 yuan / ton, and the price is rising steadily; the quotation in Yunnan is about 4800 yuan / ton, and the transaction is stable; the quotation in Beijing is about 4700 yuan / ton, the price is temporarily stable; in Hubei, the price is about 4800-5050 yuan / ton The price in Tianjin is about 5600 yuan / ton, which is stable for the time being; the price in Jiangsu is about 4700 yuan / ton, rising steadily. Prices have risen steadily in various places.

3、 Future forecast

The yellow phosphorus analyst of chemical branch of business agency believes that the price of yellow phosphorus will rise this month. The normal water period is approaching, the electricity price in Yunnan and Sichuan will be increased in the next month, and the production cost of yellow phosphorus enterprises will increase. However, there is a tight demand for phosphorus production in Sichuan. Yellow phosphorus is expected to remain bullish in the short term.

Near the end of the month, PE spot market as a whole is dominated by weakness, and the three major varieties are stable and falling. Due to the tight supply of goods in the linear market in East China, the high-voltage and low-voltage markets fell slightly, with the range of 50-200 yuan / ton. The lower reaches of the market bearish sentiment is obvious, the enthusiasm of entering the market is general, and the market transaction atmosphere is relatively light.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426h) in East China was 10600.00 yuan / ton on October 19 and 10487.50 yuan / ton on October 26, a decrease of 1.06% in the week and an increase of 24.85% over the same period of last year.

According to the data of the business agency, the average ex factory price of LLDPE (7042) in East China was 7550.00 yuan / ton on October 19 and 7550.00 yuan / ton on October 26, which was the same as last Monday and increased by 0.44% compared with the same period last year.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) in East China was 8500.00 yuan / ton on October 19 and 8400.00 yuan / ton on October 26, a decrease of 1.18% in the week and an increase of 1.00% over the same period of last year.

Regional variety manufacturers rose and fell from October 19 to October 26

East China LLDPE 7042 Jilin Petrochemical Company 7550 yuan / ton 7550 yuan / ton

East China LLDPE 7042 Daqing Petrochemical Company 7550 yuan / ton 7550 yuan / ton

East China LLDPE 7042 Dushanzi Petrochemical Company: 7550 yuan / ton: 7550 yuan / ton

East China LDPE 2426h Daqing Petrochemical Company 10600 yuan / ton 10500 yuan / ton – 100 yuan

East China LDPE 2426h Lanzhou Petrochemical Company 10600 yuan / ton 10500 yuan / ton – 100 yuan

East China HDPE 5000S Daqing Petrochemical Company 8500 yuan / ton 8400 yuan / ton – 100 yuan

East China HDPE 5000S Lanzhou Petrochemical Company 8500 yuan / ton 8400 yuan / ton – 100 yuan

It can be seen from the above trend chart that near the end of the month, the polyethylene market is mainly weak, among which LLDPE prices are relatively firm due to the tight supply of goods in the market, and the horizontal market is mainly stable. However, LDPE and HDPE decreased to varying degrees, with a decrease of about 50-200 yuan / ton. Plastic futures shock down, pressure on the spot market mentality, and the international market, crude oil fell to the market bad. Petrochemical enterprises have steadily lowered the ex factory prices, and the lower reaches have insufficient confidence in the future market, and the enthusiasm for entering the market turns weak. The atmosphere of market transaction is light, and traders mainly sell goods with profits, and the market center of gravity moves down.

In terms of demand, the current operating rate of downstream agricultural film and packaging film has increased compared with the previous period, and the increase of market demand has supported the market. On the supply side, the market supply decreased during the week, the two oil inventories decreased month on month, and port inventory increased month on month.

During the week, the futures market mainly fell to support the spot market

On October 26, the opening price of polyethylene futures 2101 was 7195, the highest price was 7245, the lowest price was 7130, the closing price was 7240, the previous settlement price was 7215, the settlement price was 7195, up 25, up 0.35%, the trading volume was 262829, the position was 269502, and the daily increase was 4255. (unit: yuan / ton)

Upstream, the recent external ethylene market overall showed a downward trend. Asian ethylene market prices fell, with CFR Northeast Asia closing at $805-815 / T and CFR Southeast Asia closing at $770-780 / T as of the 26th. The European ethylene market price fell slightly. As of the 26th, the European ethylene market price was FD, which closed at 706-719 US dollars / ton in northwest Europe and 697-706 dollars / ton in CIF northwest Europe. The price of ethylene in the United States dropped to 490-502 US dollars / ton as of the 26th. In the end of October, the market of ethylene in Europe and America decreased slightly. Generally speaking, the demand of the whole ethylene market was poor, and the market continued to decline. The decline of upstream ethylene market brings certain negative effects to polyethylene market.

At present, the operating rate of downstream agricultural film and packaging film enterprises continues to rise, and the demand side is still expected to improve, bringing certain support to the market. Futures shock down the spot market mentality. With the end of October, it is necessary to pay attention to the commissioning progress of new devices in the market in November. Overall, the polyethylene market is still likely to weaken in a narrow range in the short term.

According to the data of bulk commodity list of business agency, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province is 1066.67 yuan / ton in recent years. The current price is up 4.92% month on month, and the current price is down 19.19% compared with last year.

Recently, the domestic formaldehyde market price fluctuated and consolidated. As of October 27, the mainstream factory quotation in Central China was about 1037 yuan / ton, that of mainstream manufacturers in North China was 965 yuan / ton, and that in East China was 1081 yuan / ton. Linyi Yinhe formaldehyde production capacity is 120000 tons / year, and the formaldehyde plant is normal, with a daily output of 200 tons. Recently, the formaldehyde plant in Shandong Province has been in normal operation. The atmosphere of trading on the floor is relatively flat, the actual transaction is general, and the formaldehyde market is basically stable.

Situation of upstream methanol: in recent years, the ex factory quotation of methanol enterprises in Shandong has remained stable. The transaction price of Shandong methanol in Lubei market is 1720-1740 yuan / ton, and most of them wait and see. The methanol market in central Shandong was stable at 1900 yuan / T, while the turnover of peripheral goods was weak to 1720-1740 yuan / T, which was not so good. Let’s wait and see. The methanol market in southern Shandong Province fell by 50-60 yuan / ton to 1860-1890 yuan / ton in cash exchange. Linyi received the local goods quotation of 1860-1880 yuan / ton and delivered them to the place without tax. The quotation of logistics goods was 1800 yuan / ton. Disk down, downstream receiving cautious, general market trading.

In recent years, the demand of traditional downstream methylal and pentaerythritol is general compared with that of wood panel mills, and the demand side support is flat. Formaldehyde manufacturers to order delivery, the market remains unchanged.

In recent days, the upstream raw material methanol has a downward trend, and the downstream terminal demand is relatively weak compared with last week. Therefore, the formaldehyde analysts of the chemical branch of the business cooperative predict that the formaldehyde price in Shandong Province will mainly fall slightly in the near future.

The upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid markets remained stable, and the overall market prices remained stable. Aluminum fluoride Market, some enterprises pushed up aluminum fluoride prices. According to the data of business agency, the domestic aluminum fluoride price was 8900 yuan / ton on October 23, up 1.52% from the price of aluminum fluoride at the beginning of the week.

The price trend of fluorite market in China is volatile. Some manufacturers recently reflect poor goods delivery, the demand of downstream is not improved, and the fluorite price does not change much. Domestic fluorite manufacturers are stable in operation, the operation of mines and flotation devices in the field is normal, the goods in the fluorite yard are not good, and the market price of fluorite is maintained temporarily. In the near future, the market price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream has maintained a low level, and the downstream end purchases on demand mainly, and the purchasing mood is not strong

The prices of raw materials such as fluorite and hydrofluoric acid in the upstream maintain a volatile trend, and the market support of aluminum fluoride is weak; and the overall commencement rate of aluminum fluoride is at a high level, while the spot inventory of some factories has fallen back; recently, the market price of aluminum fluoride is relatively stable. Overall, the price of aluminum fluoride plants is relatively stable. In general, the prices of aluminum fluoride of some manufacturers have slightly increased this week. The overall inventory of aluminum fluoride industry is high, and the downstream electrolytic aluminum plant is low price. Under the supply and demand game, the transaction price of aluminum fluoride is easy to rise. It is expected that the market price of aluminum fluoride will fall after a small increase.

Analysts of aluminum fluoride industry of the chemical branch of business society believe that: the upstream fluorite price remains low, and the current aluminum fluoride inventory is high, and the aluminum fluoride price is running smoothly as a whole. It is expected that after some aluminum fluoride manufacturers have slightly increased, the aluminum fluoride price will fall back again after a small increase

This week, Panzhihua titanium ore price rise, titanium price quotation firm upward. At present, the quotation of 38 titanium ore without tax is 1200-1250 yuan / ton, that of 46 and 10 titanium ore is 1800-1850 yuan / ton, and that of 20 ore is 1550 yuan / ton. This week, Panzhihua miners are more reluctant to sell. The titanium concentrate analysts of the business agency believe that: the supply of titanium dioxide in the downstream is tight, the price is running at a high level, the spot titanium ore in the trading market is tight, the cost of titanium concentrate is boosting, and the market atmosphere is more favorable. In the short term, titanium concentrate prices continue to run high. It is a single opinion.

1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of the business agency, the market of potassium sulfate in Hebei Province is stable this week, and the price of Mannheim potassium sulfate is about 2550 yuan / ton, and that of 50% granules and 52% water soluble powder is about 2650 yuan / ton, which is the same as last week’s price. The supply and sales of Xinjiang SDIC’s potash are normal. The contracted quantity has completed the sales task of this year. At present, the products of 2021 have been pre sold, but the quantity of orders received is controlled. At present, the market price of potash is about 2480-2500 yuan / ton. It is understood that at this stage, the mainstream ex factory price of Mannheim potassium sulfate 50% powder is about 2400-2600 yuan / ton, and 52% powder is about 2500-2700 yuan / ton, and the preferential range is 50-100 yuan / ton.

The Yunnan tobacco bidding has an impact on the potassium sulfate Market. It is expected that the price will be stable in the short term, and there will be an upward trend.

Recently, the price of potassium chloride has risen, the cost pressure of potassium sulfate has increased, the price of byproduct hydrochloric acid has decreased, and the price of potassium sulfate has a slight upward trend, but the overall price is still low. Downstream manufacturer you is worried that potassium sulfate will also rise like potassium chloride, so it increases procurement in the current period of relatively low price, so the sales of potassium sulfate have improved to some extent.

3、 Future forecast

Potassium sulfate analysts believe that: the rise of potassium chloride has become a trend, under such circumstances, the rise of potassium sulfate has a track to follow, and the trend is optimistic in the future.

Recently, the domestic butadiene market has risen sharply, and Sinopec’s external quotation has been “rising for three consecutive days”. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, after the National Day (10.9), the average price of domestic butadiene producers was 6338 yuan / ton. As of today (10.22), the average price of domestic butadiene producers was 8176 yuan / ton, with an increase of 28.99% during the period. The price rose by 30.66% month on month and decreased by 21.65% year on year. The current price is still 1.64% lower than the highest price at the beginning of the year (8312 yuan / ton).

The main reasons for the rise of butadiene price are as follows: first, the external price continued to rise; second, the main production enterprise Sinopec Sales Company raised the ex factory supply price for many times to drive the market; third, the shutdown and maintenance of Wuhan ethylene plant of some production enterprises affected social inventory; Fourth, the strong rise of natural rubber futures drove the price of downstream synthetic rubber products of butadiene High linkage.

First of all, looking at the external market, since July 2020, the closing prices of butadiene in Asia, Europe and the United States have been rising intermittently. By September 2020, the internal and external prices have risen for 12 days. In October, the closing price of the external market has risen for 12 days. On October 7 after the festival, the external price of butadiene in Asia was stable: FOB Korea closed at US $795-805 / T, CFR China closed at US $795-805 / T. The external price of butadiene in Europe rose: FOB Rotterdam closed at 605-615 USD / T, up $10 / T; FD northwest Europe closed at 475-485 euro / T, stable. As of yesterday’s (10.21) closing, the external price of butadiene in Asia rose: FOB Korea closed at 935-945 US dollars / ton, up 50 US dollars / ton; CFR China closed at 945-955 US dollars / ton, up 55 US dollars / ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe rose: FOB Rotterdam closed at US $635-645 / T, up US $10 / T; FD northwest Europe closed at 495-505 EUR / T, stable.

Regional closing price on October 7, closing price on October 21

FOB South Korea: 795-805 USD / T 935-945 USD / T: 140 USD / T

CFR China $795-805 / T $945-955 / T $150 / T

FOB Rotterdam US $605-615 / T US $635-645 / T US $30 / T

FD northwest Europe 475-485 euro / ton 495-505 euro / ton 20 euro / ton

Secondly, since October 15, Sinopec’s sales companies have been increasing their external quotations by 7100 yuan / ton; on October 19, Sinopec’s sales companies have increased by 400 yuan / ton and 7500 yuan / ton; on October 20, they have increased by 500 yuan / ton, and the price has been implemented by 8000 yuan / ton; on October 21, Sinopec’s external supply price has risen by 600 yuan / ton again, reaching 8600 yuan / ton. On October 20, the 130000 T / a ethylene plant of Sinopec central China sales company was shut down for maintenance. Northeast production enterprises have no foreign supply, heard that the current transaction is at a high price. The rising prices of manufacturers have prompted traders to follow suit. At present, traders are out of stock and waiting for price increase.

Adjustment of external supply price of butadiene in Sinopec production enterprises:

Price of enterprise on October 15 (yuan / ton) price on October 21 (yuan / ton) up and down (yuan / ton)

Zhenhai Refining & Chemical 7100 8600 1500

Sinopec Shanghai 7100 8600 1500

Yangzi Petrochemical 7100 8600 1500

Sinopec 7100 8600 1500

Maoming Petrochemical 7100 8600 1500

Guangzhou Petrochemical 7100 8600 1500

Wuhan ethylene 7100 8600 1500

Thirdly, affected by the higher profits of natural rubber futures, the price of synthetic rubber in the downstream of butadiene has increased significantly, and the good linkage of the whole industrial chain has promoted the butadiene market to rise again and again.

The latest price and fluctuation of synthetic rubber downstream of butadiene:

Price of products on October 1 (yuan / ton) price on October 21 (yuan / ton) up and down (yuan / ton)

SBR: 9125.00-10241.67-12.2%

NBR: 15366.67-17100.00-11.28%

Polybutadiene rubber: 8900.00-10010.00-12.47%

Butadiene styrene and butadiene rubber market follow up, the actual price of butadiene styrene is higher than that of the domestic market.

For cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber, the mainstream sales companies raised the price of styrene butadiene and cis-1,4-butadiene by 500-600 yuan / ton. The downstream end of the terminal has no high intention to take over the offer with wide price increase, and the actual single transaction is mainly concentrated in the trade link.

NBR and NBR operators are optimistic about NBR, and the inventory of NBR production enterprises in China is on the low side. The maintenance of Nandi plant is imminent, and the production of sporadic factories is limited by environmental protection. The market atmosphere around NBR continues to have a preference pattern.

At present, the butadiene market price continues to go up, the external price continues to rise at a high level, the domestic market goes up sharply, the natural rubber futures are strengthened, and the upstream and downstream products continue to rise strongly. The butadiene analysts of the business community predict that the domestic butadiene market will mainly be sorted out at a high level in the short term.

Trade name: br 9000

Latest price (October 21): 10010.00 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of BR 9000 in China was 10010.00 yuan / ton on the 21st, up 2.04% compared with the previous day. On the one hand, the price of raw material butadiene remained high, with strong support from the cost side. According to the business association, as of October 20, the price of butadiene was 7351 yuan / ton. On the other hand, the production of downstream tires and automobiles increased compared with the previous period, and the demand side was supported. According to the business agency, in September 2020, the domestic output of rubber tire outer tire was 81.561 million, with a year-on-year increase of 15.4%. In addition, recently, petrochemical manufacturers have substantially increased their factory prices, and traders’ offers have risen. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber of PetroChina and Sinopec increased by 400 yuan / ton on Monday and 500 yuan / ton today to stimulate the bullish atmosphere in the market. According to monitoring, as of the 21st, the ex factory price of Daqing Shunding in Northeast China was 10300 yuan / ton.

Aftermarket forecast: the price of raw materials will go up sharply, and the downstream demand will be supported rigidly. It is expected that the price of CIS polybutadiene rubber will continue to rise in the future.

Trend analysis

According to the data of business agency, the market performance of cobalt Market in October was cold, and the price of cobalt fluctuated and fell. As of October 20, the cobalt price was 269333.34 yuan / ton, down 1.94% from 274666.66 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (October 1).

Domestic production and marketing of new energy vehicles

According to the data of CAAC, in September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 136000 and 138000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 48.0% and 67.7%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles in September all broke the historical records in September. The market of new energy vehicles rose significantly, and it is expected that the demand for cobalt will recover in the future, which is good for the cobalt market.

Sales of new energy vehicles in Europe exceed expectations

According to the statistical data, in September, the registered number of new energy vehicles in the 10 mainstream countries in Europe totaled 141000, with a year-on-year growth of 165% and a month on month growth of 58%. In September, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in Europe continued to increase on a month on month basis. The policy of new energy vehicles in Europe continued to increase. The trend of electrification is irreversible. It is expected to continue the boom in the fourth quarter.

Policies and regulations

On October 9, the national Standing Committee passed the new energy vehicle industry development plan, requiring that the proportion of new energy vehicles in the new public sector in the national ecological civilization experimental area and key areas of air pollution prevention and control should not be less than 80% from 2021. It is expected to promote domestic electric vehicle sales from the public sector. The state has increased the promotion of new energy vehicles, which is beneficial to the cobalt market.

On October 9, the European Union voted to raise the 2030 carbon emission reduction target from 40% to 60% compared with that in 1990 (the proposal in early September was 55%), which exceeded the expectation. The EU policy adjustment will accelerate the development of new energy vehicles, which will be beneficial to the future development of cobalt city.

Tesla reduces prices again during National Day

During the national day, the domestic Tesla Model 3 will reduce its price again. This price reduction strategy of Tesla may further open up the Chinese market, and its “catfish effect” may drive the sales volume of China’s new energy vehicle market to rise sharply in the fourth quarter. The price reduction of new energy vehicles will increase the sales volume and increase the demand for cobalt market, which is good for the future cobalt market.

Market Overview

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at the business agency, the cobalt market showed a weak performance in October, while the price of cobalt fluctuated and fell. On the contrary, it was the performance of the new energy vehicle market. In terms of production and sales, in September, the domestic production and sales of new energy vehicles increased significantly, and the performance of new energy vehicles in Europe was far better than expected. During the national day, Tesla reduced its sales, which was beneficial to the new energy vehicle market, or stimulated a large increase in New energy vehicle sales in the fourth quarter. In terms of policies and regulations, in October, China launched the new energy vehicle industry development plan to promote new energy With the development of the automobile industry, the EU has also passed a proposal conducive to stimulating the development of new energy vehicles. The policy is favorable, which is obviously beneficial to the development of the new energy vehicle industry in the future. In the next three years, new energy vehicles will still be the development trend. In the face of such a hot new energy vehicle market, the price of cobalt fluctuated and fell in October, which deviated from the market of new energy vehicles. The main reason for this performance in cobalt market is that the sales volume of 3C products such as mobile phones declined significantly, the overall demand of cobalt market declined, and the negative pressure on cobalt price was greater.

Generally speaking, the demand of new energy vehicles for cobalt market is strong in the future, but 3C market is still weak under the influence of the epidemic situation. The overall demand of cobalt market is low, and the upward momentum of cobalt market is insufficient. However, with the promotion and online of vaccine, the impact of epidemic situation will gradually weaken, the sales volume of 3C market will recover, and the demand of cobalt market will have sufficient driving force. In the future, the short-term cobalt market is declining, and the rising power of cobalt price is insufficient; the long-term cobalt market has sufficient upward momentum, and with the promotion and online of vaccine, the cobalt market may usher in a short-term upsurge at the end of the year.