According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from September 1st to 29th (as of 10:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market first increased from 2253 yuan/ton and then fell to 2260 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.30% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.26% during the period.
The domestic methanol market as a whole is showing a fluctuating and weak trend, and the performance of ports and the mainland market is showing phased differentiation. The import volume at the port remains high, and inventory pressure has not been substantially alleviated. The mainland market, on the other hand, is affected by supply and demand as well as cost factors, resulting in fluctuations. The continuous pressure on the supply side has led to the accumulation of inventory by enterprises, and the impact of pre holiday inventory and low-priced port sources has caused downstream only on-demand procurement, leading to a further decline in the market.

As of the close on September 28th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2601, opened at 2360 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2367 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2347 yuan/ton. It closed at 2364 yuan/ton in the closing session, up 12 yuan/ton or 0.51% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 170414 lots, the open position is 877555, and the daily increase position is -7577.
On the cost side, since early September, coal prices have gradually rebounded after weak consolidation at a low level. In addition to the disturbance of anti involution policies, there is good support for non electricity demand growth and downstream stocking before the Double Festival. The cost of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
On the demand side, glacial acetic acid: The starting price of the northwest factory of glacial acetic acid has been raised by 40 yuan/ton, and the company’s shipments are smooth. Formaldehyde: The formaldehyde market is fluctuating. Dimethyl ether: The dimethyl ether market is running smoothly. Most downstream products are affected by methanol prices, and the impact on methanol demand is mixed.
On the supply side, the overall recovery exceeds the loss, resulting in an increase in capacity utilization. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.
In terms of external markets, as of the close of September 25th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at a price of 325.5-326.5 US dollars per ton. The FOB US Gulf methanol market closed at 100-101 cents per gallon; The closing price of the European FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 280.5-281.5 euros per ton.
According to future predictions, after the National Day holiday, the market will enter a critical stage of upstream companies destocking and downstream companies restocking simultaneously. In addition, external variables such as freight fluctuations and intensified competition in regional supply flow will cause market fluctuations to become more frequent. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly consolidate.