According to price monitoring data from Business Society, as of May 30, 2023, the reference price for domestic n-propanol was 7933 yuan/ton. Compared to May 1, 2023 (reference price for n-propanol was 7966 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.42%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that since May (5.1-5.30), the overall domestic n-propanol market has shown a weak fluctuation and a slight decline. In early May, the domestic n-propanol market as a whole fluctuated within a certain range with a narrow range. The narrow downward adjustment of the n-propanol market in Shandong region led to a decline in the overall market focus. In late May, the domestic n-propanol market as a whole showed a decline followed by a correction. Some n-propanol suppliers in Shandong region adjusted the price of n-propanol based on their own inventory and shipping rhythm, with a range adjustment of around 300-600 yuan/ton. As of May 30, the market price of n-propanol in Shandong Province was around 7300-7800 yuan/ton. Distributors in different regions still have reservations about prices, and the difficulty in monitoring prices may lead to differences in specific negotiation situations. Each region also has differences, and actual negotiations are the main focus.

Prediction of the Future Market Trend of n-propanol

At present, the trading atmosphere in the domestic n-propanol market is quiet, and the downstream demand for n-propanol is mainly in demand for procurement. Business Society’s n-propanol data analyst believes that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market will mainly adjust and operate in a narrow range, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

This week (5.22-5.29), the market for dichloromethane slightly increased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 29th, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2410 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.12% from last Monday’s 2360 yuan/ton. Low price consolidation of raw material methanol, weak cost support for dichloromethane; The supply side of methane chloride remains loose; In the second half of this week, some downstream and export areas will be centrally replenished, providing slight support for dichloromethane. The price of dichloromethane has slightly increased.

This week (5.22-5.29), the start of the methane chloride plant slightly decreased, and the overall supply pressure is still on.

This week (5.22-5.29), the price of raw material methanol has stabilized at a low level, and the cost support for dichloromethane is still weak. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 29th, the spot price of methanol was 2191 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.04% from last Monday’s 2190 yuan/ton, and the low point during the cycle was 2135 yuan/ton.

Although the downstream centralized replenishment is expected in the short term, on the one hand, the magnitude is not significant, and on the other hand, the downstream refrigerant R32 is still operating at a low level, providing limited support for the demand for dichloromethane. The pharmaceutical intermediate and diluent solvent industries have experienced slight fluctuations in production, and dichloromethane just needs support. There was no significant increase in the overall demand for dichloromethane.

Future Market Forecast: According to the methane chloride data analyst from Business Society, the downstream demand for dichloromethane has improved in the short term compared to the previous period. However, the supply side of dichloromethane is loose, and due to the weak fundamentals of the industrial chain, it is expected that the dichloromethane market will consolidate in a narrow range in the short term.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the domestic PC market has been weak and declining this week, with spot prices of various brands continuing to decline. As of May 26th, the reference quotation for the PC sample enterprises of Business Society was around 15333.33 yuan/ton, with a decrease of -1.60% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: From the above figure, it can be seen that the recent market for bisphenol A has continued to decline. The raw material phenol finishing, acetone decline amplification, due to insufficient support from the cost side. Downstream product demand is weak, and terminal digestion of contracts and inventory is the main factor, which to some extent exacerbates the market wait-and-see atmosphere. The overall performance of the industrial chain is lackluster, with intermediate traders following the market and offering, and it is expected that the market may continue to decline in the near future.

In terms of supply: The overall operating rate of domestic PC has been adjusted and operated in the range of around 71% this week, and the industry has not yet shaken off its high load position in the past three years. There is ample supply on the market, with factory prices falling below normal levels, and multiple brands experiencing upside down situations, resulting in weak support for spot goods.

In terms of demand: Currently, downstream PC companies just need to maintain production and have a heavy wait-and-see mentality. The auction situation has weakened, and transaction prices have generally decreased. At present, the starting position of terminal enterprises is not high, there are not many actual stocking operations, and there is no volume of on-site trading. Traders have a poor mentality, their prices have declined, and the difficulty of arbitrage has increased.

Future Market Forecast

The PC market is weak this week. The upstream bisphenol A market continues to decline, providing poor support for PC costs. The high load of domestic polymerization plants is stagnant, and the follow-up and improvement on the demand side are limited, while the pressure on the supply side is maintained. There is currently no sign of the PC market breaking out of the supply-demand contradiction, and it is expected that the market may continue to operate weakly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the formaldehyde market in Shandong fluctuated and fell in May. At the beginning of the month, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1186.67 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1146.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.37%. The current price has decreased by 11.79% compared to last year.

formaldehyde

In May, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province declined. From the figure above, it can be seen that formaldehyde has mainly declined in shock for more than two months, and the market continued to decline this month. As of May 25, the mainstream market value price in Shandong was 1100-1250 yuan/ton. In May, the raw material methanol experienced a broad decline, and formaldehyde manufacturers started operating normally. However, downstream panel factories had weak demand, resulting in significant pressure on formaldehyde shipments. Inventory levels continued to rise, and the formaldehyde market continued to decline.

Upstream methanol situation: In May, the domestic methanol market declined, with the factory delivery price of methanol in the southern region of Shandong being around 2150 yuan/ton for cash exchange, and the delivery price in Linyi being around 2190 yuan/ton for cash exchange. The local methanol factory in central Shandong quoted a price of 2300 yuan/ton for self delivery from the factory. The negotiated price for methanol in the Dongying area of Shandong is between 2160 and 2170 yuan/ton, which will be delivered to spot exchange. The market atmosphere continues to be weak. After the futures price fell below the integer threshold of 2200 yuan/ton, the market sentiment became less confident. At the same time, the raw coal is still weak, the downstream demand is weak for a long time, the social inventory of the methanol market continues to accumulate, the source of imported goods also continues to pour in, and the spot market price of methanol drops again and again.

The recent decline in the methanol market is mainly due to cautious downstream panel factories receiving goods and a decline in market transactions. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society predict that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong will be mainly weak in the near future.

This week (5.15-19), the trend of domestic adipic acid was weak. After experiencing a slight increase in the market after the May Day holiday, due to the lack of positive maintenance in the market, the price remained stable for two consecutive weeks with some decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 19, the decline in adipic acid this week was 0.59%. The focus of market trading has not changed much. At present, the market quotation range for adipic acid is between 9800 to 10000 yuan/ton. Fundamentally, maintain a favorable withdrawal from the raw material end and maintain a weak balance between supply and demand.

Industrial chain

The above figure shows that this week, the entire adipic acid industry chain has declined, with upstream pure benzene and cyclohexanone continuing to retreat, especially with a significant decline in pure benzene. The main downstream product PA66 continues to be weak and stable.

Cost side: Continued empty pattern of raw material costs

This week’s decline in crude oil has created a negative impact on the entire domestic chemical market, and the price of pure benzene has declined. Although domestic supply has decreased and ports continue to destock, the panic selling caused by the sharp drop in oil prices has led to an increase in the circulation of pure benzene in the market, and the price of pure benzene in East China has continued to decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, East China Pure Benzene fell by 2.15% this week. Adipic acid still faces significant cost pressure.

Supply side: Increased supply of enterprise equipment for resumption of work

From the perspective of market supply: In terms of equipment, the supply of adipic acid has slightly increased this week, and the operating rate has remained at 60-70%. The resumption of construction of some equipment in Haili, Taihua, and Tianli has brought about an increase in supply to the market. Although the main manufacturers have raised prices this week, prices remain at last week’s level, but due to weak demand, there may be room for manufacturers to lower prices in the future. The manufacturer’s shipping speed has slowed down. At present, there is a lack of positive guidance on the supply side.

Demand side: Relatively weak demand constrains the trading volume of adipic acid

Adipic acid is relatively weak downstream. The terminal procurement just needs support, and there are relatively few orders. Taking PA66 as an example, the market has been fluctuating at a low point due to a long-term negative trend. This week’s prices continued to be weak last week and remained mainly flat. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the increase and decrease of PA66 this week was 0%. At the weekend, the market price of PA66 in Zhejiang was around 20000 yuan/ton. In addition, the market performance of caprolactam and TPU in other downstream areas is low, and weak demand is an important reason that restricts the radical improvement of adipic acid.

Future prospects

The business community believes that in terms of cost, crude oil has recently been disturbed by macro factors, the risk of US debt default has been suppressed, and the expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates and the strengthening of the US dollar have been suppressed. The trend of pure benzene is fluctuating and downward, and it is expected to have a good performance in the later stage. The future cost side is mostly bearish. The supply and demand sides have maintained a relative balance in the near future, and a large number of repaired devices will quell the weak demand. Overall, it is expected that adipic acid will continue to undergo a narrow adjustment in late May.

Price trend

Last week, the domestic PA6 market weakened in a narrow range, and spot prices were generally reduced. According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of May 22, the average factory price of PA6 in China was 13800 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.25% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

From the above chart, it can be seen that there was a slight decline last week. The price of raw material pure benzene has decreased, weakening cost support. At present, the supply and demand of caprolactam market is balanced, and the downstream demand is weak. Most of the products are purchased at low prices, and they are mainly cautious. It is expected that caprolactam market price will be weak in the short term, which will be dominated by consolidation operation.

On the supply side:

Recently, the overall load of domestic PA6 production enterprises has remained relatively stable, operating in a narrow range of around 70%. The market supply is stable, the inventory position continues to rise, and the supplier’s support for spot goods is average. The factory price pricing is narrow and loose.

In terms of demand: downstream, the weaving and spinning industries have a moderate load. The actual trading is generally concentrated in low-end spot goods. The overall atmosphere of stock preparation on the site is cautious, with buyers resisting high priced sources, and the overall demand for PA6 chips is average.

Future Market Forecast

Last week, there was a decline in the PA6 market. The load of domestic polymerization plants is stable, and the supply remains sufficient. In terms of demand, it is average, and stocking tends towards low-priced sources. The price of caprolactam fell back, and the narrow range of PA6 cost end support weakened. It is expected that the PA6 market may be dominated by weak consolidation and operation in the short term.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic EVA market has continued to decline, and spot prices have adjusted weakly this week. According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of May 19th, the average ex factory price of EVA in China was 13633.33 yuan/ton, an increase of -9.51% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

The domestic EVA market continued to weaken this week. On the supply side, the EVA industry’s operating rate this week has taken on the pattern of high load last month, with an overall weekly operating rate of over 90%. The market supply is abundant, and there is pressure on factory inventory, leading to a reduction in factory prices. Social inventory is also under pressure, and traders tend to give up profits and take orders. The profitability of EVA polymerization plants has significantly declined due to its impact. The buyer is affected by the news of the new production device and is cautious in stocking operations. The auction transaction situation improved slightly during the week, but overall demand continued to be weak, and terminal enterprises lagged behind in following up. Among them, low prices for shoe materials and other aspects of consumption were frequent, and there was little trading on the market. Enterprises have resistance to high priced sources of goods. The current demand side continues to have a bearish impact on the EVA price market.

Overall, the supply side pressure on the EVA market has not decreased this week, and downstream demand is generally weak. Overall, the factory price of enterprises has been lowered, and businesses have followed suit. Petrochemical plants have given up profits and taken orders. The foam demand is poor, and the overall market is relatively empty. It is expected that the domestic EVA market will continue to be weak in the short term.

Plasticizer DOTP prices stop falling and rebound

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 16, the price of DOTP was 10181 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.38% compared to the price of 10760 yuan/ton on May 7; The price of DOTP increased by 1.09% compared to 10071 yuan/ton on May 14th; The price has increased by 3.77% compared to 9811 yuan/ton on May 1st. This week, the price of isooctanol rebounded and rose, while the price of plasticizers stopped falling and rebounded.

Isooctanol prices stop falling and rebound

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of isooctanol has stopped falling and rebounded this week, while the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and risen. As of May 16th, the price of isooctanol was 9791.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.35% compared to May 12th, when the price of isooctanol was 9566.67 yuan/ton; The price of isooctanol decreased by 3.85% compared to 10183.33 yuan/ton on May 8th, and increased by 7.60% compared to 9100 yuan/ton on May 1st. This week, the price of isooctanol stopped falling and rebounded. The cost of plasticizer products increased, and the upward momentum of plasticizer DOTP increased.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that isooctanol rebounded and rose this week, leading to an increase in the cost of plasticizer product DOTP. Overall, the supply of isooctanol has basically returned to normal, the cost of plasticizer raw materials has increased, and there is still a weak demand for plasticizers. It is expected that plasticizer prices will be weak and stable in the future.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China rose first and then fell this week (5.5-5.12). On May 5th, the average market price was 205310 yuan/ton, and on May 12th, the average market price was 201210 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 2%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices have risen continuously for three months due to macroeconomic factors, and have fallen by 11.35% in a single month since February 2023. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin ingot market has been fluctuating frequently recently, and the overall trend is weak. This week, tin prices have risen due to the news of the planned production halt in Wa State.

On the supply side: Currently, there is little overall change in domestic supply and demand, and the attitude of smelters towards high prices remains. The operating rate is relatively stable, and the supply at the mining end is still tight. In terms of demand, the overall operation is weak and there are few signs of recovery in the short term. Currently, the main application field of tin in China is the electronics industry. In the downstream consumption structure of refined tin metal, soldering tin accounts for about 44% of the market share, while tin plates account for about 16% of the market share. Therefore, the development of the electronics industry, including the new energy industry, has a significant impact on tin. The operating rate of solder enterprises has been basically stable in the near future, and it is expected that there will be no significant changes in the future. In terms of inventory, the tin inventory of the previous period of this week increased to 9673 tons, which is at a historical high, dragging down market sentiment. Overall, downstream demand is still weak, and the impact of domestic supply and demand on tin prices is still limited in the short term. In the future, it is still necessary to focus on the impact of domestic and foreign macro factors on the market.

On May 12, 2023, the London Metal Exchange (LME) reduced its tin inventory by 25 tons from 1610 tons

On May 14th, the base metal index stood at 1172 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 27.48% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 82.55% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, there were 8 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose month on month in the list of commodity prices in the 19th week of 2023 (5.8-5.12), with dysprosium oxide (3.93%), dysprosium iron alloy (3.47%), and metal praseodymium (2.63%) among the top 3 commodities. There are a total of 12 products with a month on month decrease, and 2 products with a decrease of over 5%, accounting for 8.7% of the monitored products in this sector; The top three products with a decline were nickel (-8.00%), silver (-5.31%), and copper (-3.84%). This week’s average increase or decrease was -0.54%.

Recently (5.1-5.12), the acrylonitrile market has slightly increased. According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of May 12th, the price of bulk water in the acrylonitrile market was 9862 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.52% from the 9662 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. At present, the self pickup price of acrylonitrile in the market is between 9700 to 10000 yuan/ton. The weak decline in raw material prices has led to a slight decline in the cost of acrylonitrile, while the demand side is just in need of support. In addition, the shutdown and load reduction of some enterprises have slightly boosted the market atmosphere, leading to a slight increase in the acrylonitrile market.

Since May, the domestic operating rate of acrylonitrile has remained around 6.5%, and the operating load of Fushun Petrochemical has decreased from 90% to around 70%; The acrylonitrile unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical was reduced from full load to 50% load operation at the end of April; Lihuayi Acrylonitrile Plant will be shut down for maintenance in early May; The pressure on the supply side of acrylonitrile has slightly eased.

Recently (from May 1st to May 12th), the raw material propylene market has slightly declined, and the cost support for acrylonitrile continues to weaken. According to monitoring by Business Society, as of May 12th, the domestic propylene price was 6880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.44% from 7052 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Downstream ABS prices continue to decline, with industry device starts slightly dropping to around 85%, weakening support for acrylonitrile demand; The domestic nitrile rubber has experienced slight fluctuations, while the price of polyacrylamide has slightly decreased, with weak support for acrylonitrile.

Future Forecast: Business Society Acrylonitrile Analysts believe that the current supply pressure of acrylonitrile has slightly eased, and although there is still a strong demand for support, the demand side is weaker compared to the previous period. In addition, the cost side is declining, and it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will fluctuate slightly in the short term.