According to the monitoring of business news agency, the domestic polysilicon market stabilized this week. As of June 25, the price of polysilicon rose or fell by 0 every week. At present, the price range is 108000-130000 yuan / ton.

This week, most polysilicon manufacturers have been operating stably. Two polysilicon plants in Xinjiang have been overhauled, and one in Inner Mongolia has been overhauled temporarily. At present, the output affected is not big, and the market supply is still tight. It is expected that some plants will resume supply at the end of this month, and the pressure of tight market supply will be relieved to some extent.

From the perspective of downstream silicon chips, due to the sharp rise of silicon chips in the early stage and the further decline of downstream battery operation rate, the silicon chip shipment is not smooth, and the inventory pressure of single crystal silicon chips is increasing. Recently, due to the inventory pressure, the announcement price of central has slightly callback, and the transaction price of M6 silicon chips on the market has fallen to the range of 5.05-508 yuan / chip. The pressure of polysilicon chip’s callback is great. Due to the sharp rise before, the current price is falsely high. This week, the market price has dropped to 2.3-2.4 yuan per chip. On the other hand, with the end of old orders, new orders decline, leading to the price of silicon chip to maintain a weak pattern. On the whole, the price of this week remained at the level of last week, and some models were mainly reduced slightly.

In terms of terminal batteries and components, affected by the upstream price rise, the purchasing volume of batteries and components declined, the operating rate of battery manufacturers also declined significantly, and the price has begun to show a downward trend. However, due to the continuous high and firm price of upstream products, the possibility of further price decline of batteries and components in the later stage is very small.

According to the business association, at present, there are too many maintenance devices in silicon material manufacturers, and the market supply is still tight, which is also the fundamental reason for the continuous high level of silicon material. However, with the terminal suffering from high cost, in order to ensure the profit margin, the operating rate has been declining again and again, and the upstream and downstream game is still continuing. It is expected that with the resumption of production by domestic maintenance manufacturers from the end of June to the beginning of July, the shortage of silicon material supply may be alleviated, It also does not rule out the possibility of polysilicon prices falling.

Aluminum fluoride market stable

The price of aluminum fluoride is stable this week, and the market of aluminum fluoride is stable. According to the data of business news agency, the domestic price of aluminum fluoride on June 28 was 8433.33 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with the price of 8433.33 yuan / ton on June 21 at the beginning of last week.

Electrolytic aluminum price fluctuates and stabilizes

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of electrolytic aluminum fluctuates at a high level and tends to stabilize, the demand of aluminum market is warming up, the export is increasing year on year, the overseas demand is warming up, the social inventory is declining, the market supply is tight, the state is about to throw and store aluminum ingots, and the shortage of aluminum ingot supply is alleviated. Electrolytic aluminum market tends to be stable, aluminum fluoride downstream market tends to be stable, aluminum fluoride market shocks to maintain stability.

Market summary and forecast

The analysts of aluminum fluoride industry in business news agency think: the price of aluminum fluoride raw materials is temporarily stable, the cost of aluminum fluoride tends to be stable, and the rising power of aluminum fluoride is insufficient; The price fluctuation of downstream electrolytic aluminum tends to be stable, and the demand for electrolytic aluminum rises, but some of the demand is supplemented by national reserves, and the demand for aluminum fluoride is generally stable. Overall, aluminum fluoride Market in the future downward pressure weakened, rising momentum still exists.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data monitoring of business news agency, as of June 25, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 16800 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week, with a month on month increase of 1.2% and a year-on-year increase of 6.11%.

According to the bulk data monitoring of business news agency, as of June 25, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 22933.33 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week, with a month on month increase of 1.47% and a year-on-year increase of 29.81%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the refrigerant R22 market is temporarily stable, and the price fluctuation is limited. The raw material methane chloride fluctuates at a high level, the cost side supports strongly, but the demand performance is poor, the traders take the goods in a negative mood, and the market transaction atmosphere is general. As of June 25, R22 market quotation is mostly in the range of 15500-17500 yuan / ton, Shandong quotation is about 16800-17500 yuan / ton, Zhejiang quotation is about 15500-16800 yuan / ton, Hunan quotation is about 15500-16000 yuan / ton, Jiangsu quotation is about 16500 yuan / ton, and there is little price change in different regions.

This week, the market of refrigerant R134a was weak and stable, and the price of some enterprises was reduced by 500-1000 yuan / ton, which made the negotiation profitable. But the atmosphere of the deal is weak. At present, the raw material hydrofluoric acid is in weak and stable operation, the cost support is general, and the demand side is difficult to improve. At the same time, Meilan, Yonghe and other new production capacity enter the market, and the demand of automobile market in off-season weakens, the supply increases and the demand decreases, and the market price of R134a gradually decreases. At present, R134a market quotation is mostly in the range of 22000-25000 yuan / ton, Zhejiang quotation is about 22000-23800 yuan / ton, Hunan quotation is about 22000-22500 yuan / ton, Jiangsu quotation is about 23500-25000 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw materials, on June 25, the mainstream price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was 9300-9600 yuan / ton, and the factory price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was temporarily stable. The operation rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was normal, and the supply of goods in the yard was stable. Affected by the high price of fluorite, the market of downstream refrigerants was temporarily stable in the near future, and the yard was mainly purchased on demand. It is expected that the price trend of the yard will be stable in the future.

Trichloromethane. On June 24, the market of methane chloride in Shandong was consolidated. The manufacturer offered the mainstream ex factory price of dichloromethane at about 3930 ~ 3070 yuan / ton, and the mainstream ex factory price of trichloromethane at about 4350 ~ 4440 yuan / ton. The downstream made a small number of inquiries and received orders according to the demand.

3、 Future forecast

According to the refrigerant analysts of business news agency, the current demand is sluggish, the refrigerant market is weak, the cost support is acceptable, the actual transaction price is low, and the R22 price is expected to stabilize temporarily in the short term. R134a new production capacity into the market, supply increases, off-season car market demand is poor, R134a or price is expected to decline in the short term.

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the average price of formic acid enterprises as of June 22 was 2766.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of the previous trading day, the same as the price at the beginning of the month, down 0.60% compared with May 22.

Since June, the formic acid market has been operating at a high level. On the 22nd, the market trend remained stable. At present, the trend of raw materials is relatively strong, which forms a good cost support for the market. Downstream procurement is mainly on demand, the enterprise is stable in delivery and the market investment is orderly.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the recent price of formic acid in some enterprises is summarized (for reference only, the spot price of the merchants will be on the market with different brands, specifications and actual transaction price of products mainly through negotiation.)

The upstream caustic soda, as of June 21, the price of caustic soda in Shandong Province was centralized and operated. At present, the main factory price of 32% of alkali was 490-590 yuan / ton, and the downstream demand was still available, but the overall supply of caustic soda was sufficient, and it is predicted that the following narrow consolidation operation is mainly expected; The upstream liquid ammonia market atmosphere was still good on June 22, and the liquid ammonia Market in Shandong continued to maintain stability; The upstream sulfuric acid, on June 21, the sulfuric acid Market in Shandong Province rose, the upstream sulfur market recently increased slightly, some sulfuric acid manufacturers were not enough to start, the load decreased, the downstream bromine market gradually increased, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was good; Upstream methanol, June 22, Shandong Province methanol enterprises factory quotation up.

The formic acid analysts of business society believe that the current cost side is strong, downstream on demand procurement, and the market atmosphere is still acceptable. It is expected that the formic acid market will be in a strong operation in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the change of raw material price.

Acetic anhydride price goes up again

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the acetic anhydride commodity index on June 21 was 241.13, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 1.35% compared with the highest point 244.43 (2021-05-10) in the cycle, and increased by 192.00% compared with the lowest point 82.58 on September 20, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from February 1, 2013 to now). In June, the price of acetic anhydride continued to rise, hitting the historical high on May 10 again. As of June 21, the price of acetic anhydride was 12166.67 yuan / ton, up 1.96% from 11933.33 yuan / ton in early June; Compared with the price of acetic anhydride on May 10, 12333.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.35%.

Price trend of acetic acid rises again

As can be seen from the price trend chart of acetic acid, the price of acetic acid continued to rise this week, the cost of acetic anhydride rose, the pressure of acetic anhydride rising was greater, and the pressure of acetic anhydride price hitting the historical high was greater. However, the price of acetic acid fluctuated and adjusted on the 21st, and the power of acetic anhydride rising in the future was weakened.

Market summary and future forecast

Bai Jiaxin, acetic anhydride data analyst of business news agency, believes that the cost of acetic anhydride rose slightly this week, and the price of acetic anhydride hit a high level again. However, with the absence of the strong price of acetic acid, the cost of acetic anhydride is temporarily stable, and the market of acetic anhydride is difficult to reach a historical peak. The price of acetic anhydride is expected to be stable.

Domestic cobalt price finally rises

According to the monitoring data of the business association, the cobalt price on June 18 was 349666.66 yuan / ton, and the cobalt price rose 7000 yuan / ton on a single day. Since June, the domestic cobalt price has been falling continuously, and the domestic cobalt market has been weak. On the 18th, the cobalt price rebounded sharply, stimulating the related trading tide in the domestic stock market.

Domestic lithium battery concept board trading tide

According to the closing news of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, most of the industry sectors in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets closed higher on the 18th, and lithium battery concept stocks set off a tide of trading. Cobalt related stocks, such as Huayou cobalt industry and Hanrui cobalt industry, have changed the weak trend since June, and the stocks have risen sharply.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of business news agency, believes that since June, the cobalt market has been weak, the cobalt price has been falling continuously, and the weak performance of cobalt price has dragged down the stock market, and the cobalt related stocks have fallen sharply in June. On the 18th, cobalt prices rose sharply, stimulating the stock market to rebound. Lithium battery plate showed a rising tide, and cobalt related stocks also rose correspondingly. In the future, the rapid growth of new energy vehicles is conducive to the rebound of cobalt price, but the poor performance of 3C products such as mobile phones is a drag on the performance of cobalt market. The overall demand of cobalt market is lower than expected. On the supply side, affected by the epidemic, the cost of cobalt mining and transportation increases, the cost of cobalt increases, and the supply of cobalt declines slightly. It is expected that the cobalt market will recover slightly in the future. The stock market may follow the rise, but it is not suitable to catch up.

According to the monitoring of the business society, the price index of the domestic rare earth market remained weak. The price of PR nd series rare earths in the domestic market declined slightly, while the price of heavy rare earths declined. The domestic rare earth market was no longer prosperous. According to the rare earth plate index of the business society, the rare earth index was 474 points on June 15, which was the same as yesterday, and decreased by 52.60% compared with the highest 1000 points in the cycle (2011-12-06), Compared with the lowest point 271 on September 13, 2015, it has increased by 74.91%（ Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now).

It can be clearly seen from the rare earth index chart that the domestic rare earth prices have declined slightly, and the prices of the mainstream commodities in the rare earth market have been correspondingly lower recently, and the rare earth market is weak and difficult to change. In terms of products:

It can be clearly seen from the product price trend chart that the prices of domestic mainstream products such as neodymium oxide, metal neodymium, praseodymium neodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy and metal praseodymium are low. As of June 16, the price of neodymium oxide in domestic rare earths was 480500 yuan / ton, down 4.38% compared with the price at the beginning of the month; The price of metal neodymium was 607500 yuan / ton, 1.62% lower than that at the beginning of the month; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 470000 yuan / ton, 3.39% lower than that at the beginning of the month; The price of PR nd alloy was 580000 yuan / ton, 2.93% lower than that at the beginning of the month; The price of praseodymium was 635000 yuan / ton, 3.05% lower than that at the beginning of the month, and the domestic market trend of light rare earth fell slightly.

The domestic rare earth market is weak and difficult to change. According to the feedback of some enterprises, the overall transaction situation is not good, and the downstream permanent magnet manufacturers are not active in purchasing. However, in the early stage, the manufacturers are active in preparing goods, and the inventory in the yard increases, which leads to the general low enthusiasm of the downstream replenishment. In this case, the prices of mainstream rare earth products have declined. Sales of new energy vehicles have slowed down and the rare earth industry has been affected. The main rare earth raw materials of high performance NdFeB are light rare earth praseodymium neodymium oxide, heavy rare earth dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide, which are used in new energy vehicles, wind power, energy-saving frequency conversion air conditioning, traditional vehicles and other fields. According to statistics, the sales of new energy vehicles are still good. According to the data released by China Automobile Industry Association, in May 2021, the sales volume of the automobile industry is expected to reach 2.224 million units, a month on month decrease of 2.1% and a year-on-year increase of 0.5%; From January to may, the cumulative sales volume of the automobile industry is estimated to be 10.951 million, a year-on-year increase of 37.6%. The downstream purchasing is not active, the psychology of resisting high price is serious, the market price of light rare earth is falling, and the market price of heavy rare earth is falling correspondingly.

From the trend chart, it can be seen that the price trend of dysprosium Series in China declined slightly. As of the 16th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.315 million yuan / ton, which was 7.4% lower than that at the beginning of the month; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 2.285 million yuan / ton, 6.92% lower than that at the beginning of the month. The price of dysprosium metal was 3.125 million yuan / ton, 4.58% lower than that at the beginning of June; The domestic price of terbium series continued to fall, with the domestic price of terbium oxide at 6.3 million yuan / ton and that of metal terbium at 8.05 million yuan / ton. There are few transactions in the domestic rare earth market. The upper, middle and lower reaches of the market are mainly on the lookout. Traders tend to buy at a low price, and the market price of heavy rare earth keeps falling. However, Myanmar’s political situation is unstable, and the global supply of rare earth is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas second only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great influence on the domestic heavy rare earth market products. The import source has decreased significantly. The supply of heavy rare earth market is general, but the downstream resistance is more serious, and the market price trend has declined slightly.

Recently, the “notice on industrial energy conservation supervision in 2021″ stressed that enterprises in key industries such as iron and steel, non-ferrous metal smelting, petrochemical and chemical industry, building materials and so on should be comprehensively investigated, and special supervision on the implementation of mandatory energy consumption quota standards per unit product should be carried out, so as to finally achieve full coverage of energy conservation supervision of enterprises in key industries during the “14th five year plan”. Industry insiders believe that this reflects the strengthening of government control over the rare earth industry, which is conducive to the healthy development of the industry. Since 2021, the market of rare earth products has been objective, but the lower reaches of the business purchase significantly, resulting in the market price continued to decline.

In 2021, the first batch of rare earth mining, smelting and separation total amount control indicators increased significantly, which was related to the strong downstream demand. The Ministry of natural resources issued the total amount control indicators of rare earth mining in 2021. In 2021, the total amount control indicators of the first batch of rare earth mines (rare earth oxide REO, the same below) in China were 84000 tons, including 11490 tons of ionic (mainly medium and heavy rare earth) rare earth mines, The index of rock ore type (light) rare earth ore is 72510 tons. The first batch of tungsten concentrate (tungsten trioxide content 65%, the same below) has a total mining control index of 63000 tons, of which the main mining index is 46890 tons and the comprehensive utilization index is 16110 tons. In 2021, the total amount of rare earth and tungsten mines will continue to be controlled, and the national policy is favorable. However, the demand for rare earth and tungsten mines is poor, the accumulation of reserves is serious, and the trend of some products in the rare earth market will decline sharply.

With the sustainable development of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earth, the demand is general, but the domestic rare earth supply starts normally. In addition, the recent on-site transaction is not good, and the purchase is not active. Business analyst Chen Ling predicts that the market price of rare earth in the later period may continue to decline slightly in the short term.

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the domestic cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber market has continued to be weak since June (6.1-6.15), with the price at 11970 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 11920 yuan / ton as of June 15, with a slight decline of 0.42%.

Since June (6.1-6.15), the domestic cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber market continued to be weak, and the ex factory price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber decreased. According to the monitoring of business society, as of June 15, the ex warehouse price of Daqing cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber of PetroChina Northeast sales company was 11500 yuan / ton; According to the business news agency, the mainstream price of Shunding market in Daqing, Qilu and Yanshan is around 11750 ~ 12200 yuan / ton.

The start-up of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber has increased slightly since June. According to the business news agency, Yantai Haopu 60000 T / a Shunding unit has been in normal operation since it was restarted; The 150000t / a Shunding unit of Yanshan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. has been in normal operation with load increase; The 100000 t / a Shunding unit of Zhejiang ChuanHua started normal operation after a short shutdown; Maoming Petrochemical’s 100000 t / a Shunding unit was restarted; Xinjiang Lande 30000 T / a plant will continue to be shut down for maintenance.

enterprise Plant capacity Commencement

Yantai Haopu 60000 tons / year normal operation

Shandong Wanda 50000 tons / year parking

Qi xiangtengda 50000 tons / year normal operation

Qilu Petrochemical 70000 tons / year normal operation

Sichuan Petrochemical 150000 tons / year normal operation

Maoming Petrochemical 100000 tons / year restart

yanshan petrochemical 150000 tons / year normal operation

Yangzi Petrochemical 100000 / year parking

Huayu rubber 80000 tons / year parking

Taixiang Yubu 72000 / year normal operation

Dushanzi Petrochemical 30000 / year normal operation

Lande, Xinjiang 50000 / year Parking maintenance

Daqing Petrochemical 160000 / year normal operation

Liaoning Shengyou 30000 / year parking

Jinzhou Petrochemical 30000 / year normal operation

Shandong Huamao 100000 / year parking

Zhejiang ChuanHua 100000 / year Parking maintenance

Since June, the raw material butadiene has risen sharply, and the cost is supported. According to the monitoring of the business association, as of June 15, the butadiene price was 8218 yuan / ton, up 10.19% from 7458 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

The price of natural rubber fluctuates at a low level, which is mainly bad for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. According to the business news agency, as of June 15, the domestic natural rubber price was 12462 yuan / ton, down 3.41% from 12887 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

Future forecast: business community analysts believe that the low price of natural rubber has a strong negative effect on cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. In addition, the pre maintenance cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber such as Yanshan Petrochemical, Yantai Haopu and Maoming Petrochemical have been restarted, and the supply pressure has increased. It is expected that cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will still fall in the future.

Recently, the price of cyclohexanone rose first and then fell. Boosted by the cost, the ex factory price of cyclohexanone increased to 10500-10600 yuan / ton, but the high price was lack of buying follow-up. In addition, after the maintenance of some caprolactam units, the demand for cyclohexanone decreased, the spot supply increased, and the chemical fiber was lack of buying, so the price of cyclohexanone fell instead.. According to the monitoring data of business news agency, as of June 11, the average price of domestic cyclohexanone market was 10380 yuan / ton, with a month on month decrease of 6.15% and a year-on-year increase of 60.93%.

As of June 11, domestic cyclohexanone market summary:

region ., Price

East China 10500-10700 yuan / ton in cash

South China 10900 yuan / ton in cash

Shandong Province 10300-10500 yuan / ton in cash

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene fell. Due to insufficient transaction of downstream styrene, the spot and futures fell rapidly, driving the price of pure benzene to soften. Sinopec’s pure benzene price was increased by 300 to 7900 yuan / ton. The cost of caprolactam increased again, and the company’s losses intensified. Under the cost pressure, the spot price of caprolactam rose slightly this week. Downstream polymerization plants just need to follow up.

In the near future, some caprolactam enterprises are in line with the decline and low spot price, and the enthusiasm of raw material procurement is not high, which restricts the market confidence of cyclohexanone. It is expected that the supply of cyclohexanone will be abundant next week, and the sales will be under pressure. Business community cyclohexanone analysts expect that the domestic market of cyclohexanone will have a narrow correction in the short term.

1、 Price trend

Mixed xylene prices have risen slightly this week, according to data from the business agency’s bulk list. On May 30, the price of mixed xylene was 5920 yuan / ton; The price of this Sunday (June 6) was 5940 yuan / ton, up 20 yuan / ton, or 0.34% from last week; It was 58.4 per cent higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

On the domestic side, although the external news has brought good support, domestic mixed xylene has just to be the main demand, the demand is not enough, and the price increase in the week is limited. On the external market, as of June 4, the price of imported mixed xylene in South Korea was US $770 / T, up 0.65% on May 28, compared with May 28; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was 790 USD / T, which rose by 6 US dollars / ton, or 0.77% on May 28, on the same month.

On the crude oil side, the United States entered the peak driving travel season, and the demand for gasoline has obviously increased. And opec+ conference decided to maintain the gradual increase plan unchanged. The outlook for the crude oil market is good, with oil prices rocketing this week. Brent rose $1.175/barrel this week, or 1.69 percent, on May 28; WTI rose $3.29/barrel, or 4.98 percent.

Downstream, PX market, this week, domestic PX prices rose, at 6500 yuan / ton, up 1.56% from last week, up 58.54% year-on-year. Asia closed at $830-832 / T FOB Korea and $848-850 / T CFR China as of June 4.

PTA market, this week, East China PTA rose first and then fell, Sunday (June 6) price at 4735.45 yuan / ton, up 1.4% from last week, up 29.82% from the same period last year.

In the ox market, the ox price this week was flat compared with last week, while on Sunday, the price of ox in East China was 6200 yuan / ton, up 47.62% from the same period last year.

3、 Post market forecast

Xylene analysts of the chemical branch of business society think: on the supply cost side, opec+ production reduction implementation, the total number of us oil drilling platforms and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, the demand side, the impact of global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of industrial chain, and the economic and trade situation in Europe and America. Third, we will look at the geopolitical situation between the Middle East and the United States, the progress of the new crown vaccine, the dollar index and the stock market linkage.

The prospect of crude oil market is good, and it is possible to continue to rise; But downstream follow-up is general, and demand support is weak. In general, the short-term mixed xylene consolidation is the main. We will continue to pay attention to the influence of the price trend of Blending Crude Oil and gasoline, the maintenance dynamics of mixed xylene plant, port inventory and downstream demand changes on the price of mixed xylene.