According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong Province fluctuated and rose in March. The price of isooctanol increased by 4.49% from 9228.57 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 9642.86 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The price at the end of the month fell 25.63% year-on-year.

On March 29, the isooctanol commodity index stood at 71.22, unchanged from yesterday, down 48.20% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.50 (2021-08-08), and up 102.62% from the lowest point of 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

From the perspective of supply side, the mainstream market price of isooctanol in Shandong increased slightly this month, with average inventory.

Cost side: slight decline in propylene market

In March, the factory price of propylene fluctuated and fell, dropping from 7522.60 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7096.60 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 5.66%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 15.57% compared to the same period last year. Insufficient cost support has a negative impact on the price of isooctanol.

Demand side: slight increase in DOP market

DOP market prices rose slightly in March. The price increased by 1.01% from 9950.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 10050.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month. At the end of the month, prices fell 18.29% year-on-year. The downstream market rose slightly, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol increased.

Looking at the future market: In the first ten days of mid April, the domestic isooctanol market may fluctuate slightly, with consolidation being the main trend. Upstream propylene prices fell slightly, with insufficient cost support. Downstream DOP prices showed a downward trend at the end of the month, and downstream manufacturers’ enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol weakened. Multiple negative effects, product trend downward under supply and demand contradiction. The isooctanol analyst from the Business Agency believes that in the short term, under the influence of multiple factors such as supply and demand and raw materials, the domestic isooctanol market may suffer from minor fluctuations and declines.

Acetic anhydride prices fluctuated and rose in March

According to data monitoring by Business News Agency, as of March 29, the price of acetic anhydride was 5487.50 yuan/ton, up 4.28% from 5262.50 yuan/ton on March 1. The price of raw materials fluctuated and increased, and acetic anhydride enterprises started at a low level. In March, the price of acetic anhydride fluctuated and increased.

In March, the acetic anhydride equipment of Yankuang Enterprise started at a low level, and the acetic anhydride equipment was scheduled to be overhauled for 15 days. The supply of acetic anhydride decreased, and the demand for acetic anhydride temporarily stabilized. In March, the price of acetic anhydride fluctuated and increased.

Acetic acid prices fluctuated and rose in March

As can be seen from the acetic acid price trend chart of the business community, as of March 29, the acetic acid price was 3300 yuan/ton, up 4.76% from the 3150 yuan/ton price of acetic anhydride on March 1. In March, the price of acetic acid fluctuated and increased, while the support for the increase in acetic anhydride cost remained. The upward momentum for acetic anhydride increased.

Methanol prices fluctuated and fell in March

As can be seen from the methanol price trend chart of the Business Club, as of March 29, the methanol price was 2540.83 yuan/ton, down 7.13% from the March 1 price of 2735.83 yuan/ton. In March, the price of methanol fluctuated and fell, the cost of acetic acid decreased, and the price of raw materials for carbonyl acetic anhydride decreased. The downward pressure on acetic anhydride was high.

Future prospects

Analysts from the Business Agency’s acetic anhydride data believe that in March, the price of acetic acid fluctuated and rose, while the price of methanol fluctuated and fell, while support for the rise in acetic anhydride costs remained. In late March, Yankuang’s acetic anhydride equipment started at a low level, and the acetic anhydride equipment was scheduled to be shut down for maintenance for 15 days, resulting in a decrease in acetic anhydride supply. In the future, support for the rising cost of acetic anhydride remains, while supply and demand remain weak. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will stabilize strongly in the future.

According to the monitoring data of Business News Agency, the price trend of TDI in East China this week was weak and downward. On March 26, the average market price in East China was 17866.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.29% compared to the price of 18100.00 yuan/ton on March 20, and a decrease of 8.38% compared to the monthly price.

This week, the TDI market was operating in a weak state, with quiet information on the market, tight supply of goods from suppliers, and a strong willingness to undercut prices. The demand end market was subject to sluggish trading. The downstream performance of TDI was flat, with few market inquiries, and the trade market atmosphere was cold. In order to maintain the pace of shipment, some shipholders lowered their offers, with significant pessimism on the market and a downward shift in the focus of market transactions. As of the 26th, the quotation range for domestic products in the distribution market in East China was around 17600 yuan/ton, The quotation range for Shanghai goods is 17600-17800 yuan/ton, and negotiation based on actual orders.

The upstream toluene market is running smoothly, with the domestic average price of toluene at around 7050 yuan/ton as of March 26, which is flat compared to the price on March 20. The toluene market has sufficient supply, and the enthusiasm of downstream buyers is moderate. The industry has a wait-and-see attitude, and the price of toluene has not changed much.

After market analysis, TDI data analysts from the business agency believe that the TDI market continues to play a game of supply and demand, with terminal demand tracking down, supply side supply is tight but support is limited, downstream suppliers are resistant to high-priced supply, and TDI prices are weak. In the short term, TDI market consolidation and operation will be followed up with specific attention.

This week (3.20~3.27), the market of dichloromethane declined in a weak manner. As of March 27, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 2680 yuan/ton, down 3.16% from 2767 yuan/ton last Monday. The price of raw material methanol slightly decreased, while the cost support for dichloromethane slightly weakened; The downstream refrigerant R32 just needs support for purchasing dichloromethane during the peak season, but the supply of methane chloride is loose, with the factory price of dichloromethane enterprises slightly adjusted, and the price of dichloromethane slightly decreased.

This week (3.20~3.27), the methane chloride unit continued to operate at a high level, and the supply of dichloromethane was loose.

This week (3.20~3.27), the price of raw material methanol decreased slightly, and the cost support for dichloromethane was weak. According to the business news agency, as of March 27, the spot price of methanol was 2593 yuan/ton, down 0.95% from 2618 yuan/ton last Monday. The low consolidation of international crude oil prices, coupled with fluctuations in the domestic raw material coal range, will not lead to a significant upward trend in methanol prices in the near future, and the cost of dichloromethane is expected to be stable and weak.

Due to the impact of the reduction in total supply during the year and the arrival of the traditional peak season, the market price of refrigerant R32 this week (3.20~3.27) was strong, and the start of construction was stable, providing some support for dichloromethane.

Future Forecast: According to the methane chloride data analyst from Business News, the downstream of dichloromethane just needs support, but the methane chloride industry is still at a high level with loose supply and weak cost support. Due to the fundamental game of the industrial chain, it is expected that the dichloromethane market will be weak and consolidate in the short term.

From March 17 to March 24, 2023, the weekly bidding price of crude benzene was mainly down, at 5804 yuan/ton at the end of last week, and at 5686 yuan/ton at the end of this week, with a weekly decrease of 2.03%.

In terms of crude oil, international oil prices have fallen significantly since mid March. As of the 23rd, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was at $69.96/barrel, while the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was at $75.50/barrel. The price of crude oil in the market fell. In the middle of the month, the collapse of a bank in Silicon Valley in the United States, coupled with the disappointing inflation report data in the United States, triggered market concerns about financial risks. In addition, the anxiety of Credit Suisse hit the financial market, putting pressure on risky assets such as stock markets and crude oil, and adding to the negative impact of the unexpected growth of crude oil inventories in the United States, which subsequently dragged down oil demand and caused crude oil prices to plummet. The pressure of the banking crisis began to ease in late October, and the oil market rebounded from a low level. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25bp, which met market expectations and suggested that the pace of interest rate hikes would be suspended. The decline of the US dollar supported the rise of oil prices.

The ex-factory price of Sinopec pure benzene increased by 100 yuan/ton on March 8, 2023, and is currently implemented at 7200 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7100 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7200 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 7203 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7150 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 7200 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a histogram. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K column indicates the range of fluctuation. The K-column chart of pure benzene weekly shows that after entering July, the price of pure benzene has continuously declined, with a slight recovery in late August and early September. From October to December, the price mainly decreased, with a recovery in January. After February, the overall price fluctuated in a narrow range.

Industry chain: The pure benzene market slightly declined this week, while crude oil and styrene both rose at the beginning of the week, driving the pure benzene market up slightly. Downstream demand is moderate, and prices rose narrowly at the beginning of the week. In the middle and late stages, the trend of downstream styrene fluctuated, dragging down a slight decline in the price of pure benzene. However, enterprises such as Sinopec held up prices, and the overall market sentiment was on the sidelines, leading to a high market volatility trend. Hydrogenated benzene is affected by narrow fluctuations in pure benzene, with limited price volatility this week.

The crude benzene market has been operating weakly this week, with the main production area in Shandong Province executing 5760-5765 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton compared to last week’s auction price. In terms of supply, the operating rate of coking enterprises this week has not changed significantly compared to last week, and the crude benzene supply is stable. In terms of demand, some hydrogenation benzene units were started up this week, with a slight increase in the operating rate, and the demand for crude benzene was moderate. The downward trend in prices this week is mainly affected by the overall downward trend in the industrial chain, which has a strong downward pressure on prices in the downstream, and the overall downward trend in auction prices. Overall, the current performance of crude oil is weak, with insufficient support for pure benzene. The negative factors in the industrial chain are still strong, and it is expected that the overall weak operation of the industrial chain market will prevail in the short term.

According to the monitoring by the Business News Agency, the domestic ethanol market is in a weak state. From March 10th to 17th, the domestic ethanol price remained at a low level from 7171 yuan/ton to 7142 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.40% during the cycle, a year-on-year decrease of 1.19%, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.27%. Production enterprises in some regions have repeatedly lowered their prices, with an overall price adjustment range of around 150 yuan/ton. At the same time, downstream demand is flat, and traders are not moving fast. The short-term ethanol market has a weak focus.

On the cost side, the domestic corn market monitored by the Business Cooperative continued to be sluggish. On March 17th, the benchmark price of corn by the Business Cooperative was 2791.43 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.61% compared to the beginning of this month (2808.57 yuan/ton). In March, the willingness of farmers in the production area to sell grain continued to increase, and the overall supply of domestic corn market was relatively loose. After the corn inventory of ports and deep processing enterprises was replenished to a certain extent, the purchase price of corn was slightly reduced, driving the domestic corn market price to continue to be weak. The cost side of ethanol is empty.

On the supply side, this week, the overall ethanol market started operating with stable load, and the main production area operated with high load and increased supply. Guannan device is shut down, Jinchanglin device is shut down, and Changxing and Maibohui in Southern Jiangsu are started up. The negative impact of ethanol supply increases.

On the demand side, the chemical industry just needs to purchase, and the ethyl acetate may be overhauled in March and April, so the demand for Baijiu is stable. Short term ethanol demand is bearish.

According to the future market forecast, the cost support is insufficient, and the downstream demand is mainly rigid. Ethanol analysts from the Business News Agency predict that the domestic ethanol market will run in a weak trend in the short term.

This week (3.13~3.20), the market of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was weak and the price fell. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, as of March 20, the domestic price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was 11470 yuan/ton, down 2.96% from 11820 yuan/ton last Monday. The price of butadiene as a raw material decreased, and the cost support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber weakened; During the cycle, the factory price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber, a supplier of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber, was reduced by 300 yuan/ton, resulting in a slight decrease in merchant offers. According to the monitoring by the Business News Agency, as of March 20, the factory price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber of Sinopec North China Sales Company was reported at 11100 yuan/ton. As of the 20th, the mainstream reports of Qilu, Yanshan, Yangzi, Dushanzi, Sichuan and other cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber markets were 11250-11600 yuan/ton, while the mainstream reports of private cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber markets were 11100-11200 yuan/ton.

This week (3.13~3.20), the price of raw butadiene fell, and the cost support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber weakened. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, as of March 20, the price of butadiene was at 8691 yuan/ton, down 5.18% from 9166 yuan/ton last Monday.

The natural rubber market fell during the week (3.13~3.20), which had a negative impact on cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, as of March 20, the price of natural rubber was 11340 yuan/ton, down 2.49% from 11630 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

This week (3.13~3.20), downstream tire starts fluctuated slightly, and due to the continuous decline in the price of natural rubber, the purchase of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was not positive. It is understood that by the middle of March 2023, the starting load of all steel tires for rubber tire enterprises in Shandong Province was 6.8%; The starting load of semi steel tires in domestic rubber tire enterprises is 7.3%.

Future Market Forecast: Business Agency analysts believe that the current supply of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber fluctuates slightly, with the coexistence of enterprise maintenance and restart plans in the later stage; Downstream construction is basically stable compared to the early stage, and due to the low price of natural rubber, the procurement of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is not good. It is expected that cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will consolidate in a weak position in the short term.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price fluctuated and rose this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market rose from 7266.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 7333.33 yuan/ton at the end of this week, an increase of 0.92%. Compared to the same period last year, the year-on-year decrease was 40.05%. The isobutyraldehyde commodity index on March 19 was 37.73, unchanged from yesterday, down 64.26% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and up 25.27% from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 7, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotations of mainstream isobutyraldehyde manufacturers rose and fell among each other this week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market for isobutyraldehyde declined slightly this week, with the price falling from 7464.60 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 7300.60 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 2.20%. A year-on-year decrease of 11.69% compared to the same period last year. The price of upstream raw materials in the market fell slightly, resulting in insufficient cost support. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a negative impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde. From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol decreased slightly, with the market price falling from 10866.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 10600.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 2.45%. The market price of neopentyl glycol declined slightly, and downstream demand weakened, which had a negative impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future prospects

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in late March may be dominated by fluctuations and declines. The upstream propylene market fell slightly over the weekend, with insufficient cost support. Downstream neopentyl glycol market has a downward trend, and downstream procurement enthusiasm has weakened. The isobutyraldehyde analyst from the Business Agency believes that in the short-term isobutyraldehyde market, due to the impact of multiple factors such as supply and demand and raw materials, the isobutyraldehyde market may suffer from minor fluctuations and declines.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the market price of Yungui yellow phosphorus was basically stable this week. As of March 17, 2023, the average price of yellow phosphorus was 30625 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as that of March 13.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of Yungui yellow phosphorus was basically stable this week. The manufacturer has issued multiple preliminary orders, and the devices of many enterprises are currently in maintenance status, so no external quotation will be made temporarily. The market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and overall, there are fewer transactions in the market, focusing on maintaining stable operation. Up to now, the mainstream quotation is around 28500-32000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiated on a single basis.

In terms of phosphate rock, according to data monitoring by Business News Agency, as of March 17, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate rock in China was around 1092 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as that of March 13. Currently, the trading atmosphere in the phosphate rock field is moderate, and the operators have a good mentality. Some mining enterprises continue to deliver preliminary orders. The phosphorus ore data analyst of the business agency believes that in the short term, the overall domestic phosphorus ore market remains high and strong, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in information on the supply and demand side.

In terms of coke, the coke market in Shandong Port is temporarily stable in operation, with the quasi primary ex-warehouse price of around 2630-2650 yuan/ton and the primary ex-warehouse price of 2730-2750 yuan/ton. The port market is weak in operation, with a general intention to gather ports, and slightly cold trading. The decline in the futures market has affected the market mentality. Currently, the market atmosphere is on the wait-and-see side. In terms of freight, on the 17th, Xiaoyi arrived at Rizhao Port at 190 yuan/ton, and Jiexiu arrived at Rizhao Port at 185 yuan/ton. As the market atmosphere turned wait-and-see, the freight price was slightly lower.

In terms of phosphoric acid, the market price of phosphoric acid fell this week. The average price of phosphoric acid at the beginning of the week was 8216.67 yuan/ton, while the average price at the weekend was 8175 yuan/ton. During the week, the price fell by 0.51%. At present, the market is light in trading and transactions are relatively small. In the case of both weak costs and demand, it is expected that the price of thermal phosphoric acid will be mainly weak and stable in the short term.

3、 Aftermarket Forecast

Yellow phosphorus analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that the current upstream phosphorus ore and coke market prices are temporarily stable, and cost support is acceptable. Yellow phosphorus enterprises are mainly overpriced. The downstream phosphoric acid market price fell, with downstream procurement based on demand and strong wait-and-see sentiment. It is expected that the yellow phosphorus market will mainly operate in a weak and stable manner in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, the price of baking soda this week was weak. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 2435 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the weekend was 2387.5 yuan/ton. The price fell 1.95%, down 5.51% year on year. The baking soda commodity index on March 9 was 161.61, which was the same as yesterday, down 31.47% from the cycle’s highest point of 235.84 points (2021-11-10), and up 83.09% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the business news agency, the price of baking soda is weak, and the downstream market is in general demand recently. At present, the price of baking soda in Henan is about 2200-2400 yuan/ton. The current price of light soda ash in the upstream of baking soda in East China is about 2700-2900 yuan/ton in the mainstream market. The price of soda ash in North China is temporarily stable, and the current market price of light soda ash is about 2800-2900 yuan/ton. According to the data, the inventory of soda ash manufacturers is about 250000 tons.

According to the analyst of Business Agency, the price of baking soda is weak in the near future, the price of raw soda is temporarily stable in the near future, and the downstream medicine, textile, food and other aspects of baking soda are mainly purchased on demand. It is comprehensively estimated that the price of baking soda will be weak in the future, depending on the downstream market demand.