New York, September 25 news, copper prices fluctuated on Tuesday, the final decline slightly, traders are concerned about the latest developments in the Sino-US trade situation.

COMEX September copper futures contract closed down $0.0125, or 0.4%, to $2.8035 per pound.

Copper prices have rebounded recently after entering the bear market this summer, but they are still well below the four-year highs in June, as the market is worried that Sino-US tariff disputes will weaken the global economy and limit consumption.

China is the world’s largest consumer of industrial metals, accounting for about half of global copper demand.

China and the United States impose new tariffs on each other’s goods on Monday, which is part of the trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies.

People familiar with the matter said that China has withdrawn from the Sino-US trade negotiations scheduled to be held recently, and the prospects for the world’s top two economies to resolve trade disputes have become even more bleak.

On Monday, the State Council Information Office published a white paper entitled “Facts on China-US Economic and Trade Frictions and China’s Position”, which comprehensively and systematically combed China-US economic and trade relations with a large number of facts and detailed data. The white paper emphasizes that the essence of Sino-US economic and trade relations is mutual benefit and win-win, pointing out that what the United States is doing is trade protectionism and trade hegemonism. The white paper clarifies China’s policy stance and fully demonstrates China’s determination and will to promote the rational resolution of the issue, maintain the healthy and stable development of Sino-US economic and trade relations, and firmly uphold the multilateral trading system.

Analysts are also closely watching the dollar’s movements, and the dollar has recently fallen after hitting a 15-month high last month. The weak dollar has made dollar-denominated commodities cheaper for overseas buyers and has helped stabilize the commodity after a summer slump. The US dollar index fell less than 0.1% on Tuesday.

1. Price trend
According to the price monitoring of the business community, this week’s TDI price closed at 25,700 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2,640 yuan / ton, a drop of 9.32% compared with the beginning of the week, the price fell sharply.

2. Analysis of influencing factors

Product: The domestic TDI market fell sharply this month. Shandong Dongda No.1 Co., Ltd. reported 25,500 yuan / ton; Nanjing Carbon Green Chemicals Co., Ltd. reported that Zhangzhou Dahua 28,000 yuan / ton; Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone Pan Asia International Trade Co., Ltd. reported BASF 25,500 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: The market continued to fall sharply this week. The traditional peak season of TDI is coming, and the industry has different views. Some holders said that this year is not necessarily the same, the downstream environmental inspection is strict, each year is different. According to the previous trend, many people will stock up before the peak season, which directly leads to the peak season, and the supply and demand shutdown is such a dynamic change. It can only be said that the first two years are the peak period of TDI. At the same time, many goods dealers also said that there is no stockpile plan, TDI does not dare to pick up the goods, the current profit margin of the manufacturers is still very large, so the space for the fall will be great. At the same time, Yantai Juli and Wanhua Chemical will each have their own production capacity of 150,000 tons/year and 300,000 tons/year. The production capacity will increase and the supply gap will be improved. The early expectations were too high, but the price did not rise as expected, causing prices to fall, and demand was bleak.

Industry: Two consecutive TDI prices such a roller coaster-like market shows that there is indeed a problem in the TDI market. At present, TDI is a high-margin product in the polyurethane industry, and it has been a high price in the recent collapse to 24,500. Long-term high product prices are not conducive to sustainable development. Domestic and foreign manufacturers are researching ways to reduce or replace the use of TDI. If the price does not return to a healthy level at an early date, the follow-up situation is worrying.

III. Conclusions and prospects

According to the analysis of business data experts: TDI continued to decline in the short term, mainly depending on economic and environmental factors.

First, the price trend

Recently, the market for butadiene has temporarily stabilized. Business community monitoring showed that as of September 12, the price of butadiene was 12,871 yuan / ton, and the price rose 10.38%.

Second, the analysis of influencing factors

Product: The domestic butadiene market price is stable. The manufacturer’s supply price is stable, the merchants’ sales intentions are limited, the external quotation remains stable, and the enthusiasm for downstream receiving intentions has weakened. The bidding situation of the big factories in the north was better than expected. Some private enterprises in Shandong increased their supply prices to 13,100 yuan/ton. The downstream enquiries were more enthusiasm and the traders shipped smoothly. There are not many news reports on the butadiene market in East China. Traders are concerned about the transaction situation in the northern market and have not heard about the transaction. Asian butadiene closing price, FOB Korea average price offer 1614 US dollars / ton; CFR China average price offer 1618.5 US dollars / ton.

Industry chain: downstream, styrene-butadiene rubber: domestic styrene-butadiene rubber market rebounded. The supplier stabilized the price of styrene-butadiene rubber, the business mentality was supported, the offer price rebounded slightly, and the negotiated price also followed up, and the buyer continued the purchase of small orders. Butadiene rubber, the domestic butadiene rubber market rebounded. The merchant’s trading mentality was supported, the offer price was slightly explored, and there was little intention of low-cost shipping, and the transaction price was shifted upwards. SBS: The domestic SBS market oil rubber and dry rubber roads were narrowly arranged and the atmosphere was light.

Third, the market outlook

On the positive side, the domestic butadiene market supply is still tight, some private enterprises have low operating load, and some manufacturers have raised their supply prices. On the negative side, downstream buyers have limited ability to accept high prices, and the external market is weak. The butadiene analysts of the business community expect that the butadiene market price will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.

The propane commodity index on September 9 was 90.29, which was the same as yesterday. It was down by 25.87% from the highest point of 121.80 points (2012-03-23) in the cycle, which was 91.05% higher than the lowest point of 47.26 on August 07, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

Products: The domestic propane market is still dominated by steady and high prices on the weekend. The liquefied gas is strong and supported. The downstream market is enthusiasm, but as the price climbs, some high-priced resources are slightly inferior. Today’s market gains have narrowed. . But overall, the domestic propane market is still strong. In addition, the weather has turned cooler, the market demand has increased, and the factory inventory is currently worry-free, forming support for the market.

Industry chain: Upstream: The market for liquefied petroleum gas has stabilized today, with small adjustments and trading, and the downstream is still dominated by wait-and-see, but the main price is high and the external trend is good. Downstream: Today, the domestic propylene market price is stable and small, and the northeast market and Shandong high-end callback 50 yuan / ton.

The market outlook: Today, the propane market is stable and small, the downstream receiving atmosphere is still acceptable, the overall pressure of the manufacturers is not large, and the price is expected to stabilize mainly tomorrow.

First, the price trend

According to the monitoring of commodity data of the business community, the domestic acetone market was affected by the operating rate of the phenolic ketone plant, and the market once again rose, with a single-day increase of 6.02%. As of now, the domestic enterprise price is 5866.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 300-400 yuan / Ton.

Second, analysis and review

Products: Entering August, the domestic phenolic ketone market was rapidly affected by the start of the plant. However, due to the lack of upstream demand and port inventory in the middle of the month, the upstream power was insufficient, and there was a slight downward trend in the end of the month. In September, the operating rate of domestic installations further decreased, and port inventory fell. Bluestar Harbin 150,000 tons/year installation, Huizhou Zhongxin 300,000 tons/year phenolic ketone plant, Sinopec Mitsui 400,000 tons/year device were in parking state, Xisha Because of limited raw materials, low-load operation; Zhonghai Shell 350,000 tons / year device parking for some reason; Zhongsha Petrochemical September 3-25 overhaul, operating rate decreased, supply again, the market pushed up, today manufacturers listed up.

Market situation: Up to now, Shandong Lihua Yiweiyuan has reported 6,000 yuan/ton, traders’ offers have been synchronized, prices around Yanshan have risen sharply, and the offer in East China is 5,800 yuan/ton; the price in South China is high.

Industry chain: Sinopec’s pure benzene listing price is 7,250 yuan / ton; although the current price is slightly loose, but the overall price is at a high level, the propylene price market is strong at around 9350-9400 yuan / ton, from the cost side of the full power. At present, the overall market for acetone is stable, mostly for purchase. Downstream isopropanol market volatility, the terminal plant operating rate is stable, and downstream demand is just the mainstay.

Third, the market outlook

The favorable factors, the entry of the national phenolic ketone plant in September was less than 40%, and the supply in Shandong and South China was particularly tight, and the downstream mostly procured from the East China region. However, the port cargo in East China was affected by the depreciation of the RMB, and the current supply was tight, and the contractors were reluctant to sell. Obviously, and the cost side still has support. Negative factors, downstream demand in general, manufacturers just need to purchase mainly, the on-site operating rate is relatively stable. The acetone analyst of the business community believes that: in September, manufacturers have more overhauls, warehouses control goods, and the short-term market may have upward expectations.