This week (10.20-24), the domestic price of liquid ammonia showed weak growth and did not continue the upward trend of last week. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the weekly rise and fall of liquid ammonia in Shandong region was 0. The main reason is the stable downstream demand, which has led to increased production in some areas and eased supply pressure. At present, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong region is between 2150-2250 yuan/ton.
From the supply side, the supply remained reasonably balanced this week. Previously, some units underwent maintenance, and production in Shandong, Henan, Northwest and other places slightly decreased. Some enterprises resumed work this week, and the market slowly increased, easing the pressure on market supply. From the beginning of the week to the weekend, most companies do not adjust their prices, and the market shows a basic balance between supply and demand.
From the demand side, downstream demand has shown lukewarm performance, with the operating rate of compound fertilizers still at a low level, especially in the northern region. Due to the impact of important conferences and transportation restrictions, demand has been frustrated. However, due to the recent increase in shipments of urea and the excessive maintenance of equipment, the price slightly rebounded in the middle of the week. However, due to weak demand, the sustained demand in the later period was insufficient. According to the commodity analysis system, the weekly increase in urea was 1.27%. In addition, the domestic industrial demand is weak, and agricultural demand is mainly purchased on demand with sporadic restocking. The improvement in demand is not significant, and the market’s wait-and-see mentality still dominates.
Market forecast:
Business analysts believe that liquid ammonia may remain stagnant in the short term, with little change in equipment and a relatively abundant supply pattern. In addition, there are not many favorable factors on the demand side, limited replenishment of agricultural demand, on-demand procurement in the market, and industrial rigid demand as the main focus. There are currently no bright spots in the market, and the ammonia market may maintain an adjustment pattern.