According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 8038 yuan/ton on March 25th and 8021 yuan/ton on March 28th, a decrease of 0.21% during this period. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 9716 yuan/ton on March 25th and 9666 yuan/ton on March 28th, a decrease of 0.51% during this period. HDPE (2426H) had an average price of 8407 yuan/ton on March 25th and 8402 yuan/ton on March 28th, a decrease of 0.06% during this period.

Recently, the polyethylene market has been continuously declining and the market is weak. During the period from March 21st to 27th, the polyethylene plant suffered a maintenance loss of approximately 108300 tons, a decrease of 10600 tons compared to the same period last week. The gradual release of new production capacity and the restart of early-stage maintenance equipment have led to a large supply and slow destocking in the market. Downstream demand is weak, and terminal procurement is mainly focused on essential needs, making it difficult to deliver at high prices. The mentality in the market is bearish, with traders mainly offering small discounts for shipments. There is no positive market support, and it is expected that polyethylene will continue to be weak.

This week, the price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and rose

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 25th, the DOP price was 8126.25 yuan/ton, which first increased and then decreased by 0.15% compared to the DOP price of 8113.75 yuan/ton on March 14th. The increase in production of plasticizer DOP enterprises has led to an increase in plasticizer output and supply; The price of phthalic anhydride has risen significantly, while the price of isooctanol first rose and then fell. The cost support of plasticizer DOP has increased, and the upward support of plasticizers has increased the downward pressure.

This week, the price of raw material isooctanol first rose and then fell

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 25th, the price of isooctanol was 7516.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.67% compared to the price of 7466.67 yuan/ton on March 14th. There is a significant increase in production capacity of isooctanol, with high equipment start-up rates in isooctanol enterprises and sufficient supply from isooctanol manufacturers; Plasticizer manufacturers are operating at high levels, with increasing demand for isooctanol. The downward pressure on isooctanol has weakened, and the upward support still exists. The cost support for plasticizer DOP still exists.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 25th, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 7600 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and increased by 6.85% compared to the price of 7112.50 yuan/ton on March 14th. Multiple phthalic anhydride manufacturers have stopped for maintenance, resulting in a decrease in equipment operating load and low inventory of phthalic anhydride; The price of industrial naphthalene has risen, the maintenance of adjacent benzene units has been advanced, the supply of adjacent benzene has decreased, and the support for the rise of adjacent benzene has increased. The price of adjacent benzene is strong and temporarily stable, and the cost of raw materials is strongly adjusted. The decrease in supply provides cost support, while the increase in phthalic anhydride prices increases support.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of cost, the price of isooctanol first rose and then fell, the price of phthalic anhydride rose sharply, and the cost of plasticizer DOP increased; In terms of demand, downstream production is slowly recovering, and the demand for plasticizers is decreasing; On the supply side, the operating load of DOP enterprises has increased, leading to an increase in DOP supply. In the future, with rising costs and increased supply, coupled with weak demand for plasticizers, it is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will remain strong and stabilize.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from March 14th to 21st (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market increased from 2656 yuan/ton to 2694 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.41% during the period, a month on month increase of 3.69%, and a year-on-year increase of 0.31%. The domestic methanol market has been fluctuating and consolidating. Macro sentiment has rebounded, coupled with low inventory and limited loading by some companies, planned maintenance of some facilities in China, and high enthusiasm for trade procurement, which has driven the strength of the domestic methanol market.

As of the close on March 21st, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract 2505 for methanol futures opened at 2560 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2574 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2548 yuan/ton. It closed at 2554 yuan/ton in the closing session, up 3 yuan/ton or 0.12% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 545484 lots, the position is 797999 lots, and the daily increase is -12739 lots.

On the cost side, the thermal coal market is operating weakly and oscillating. Most coal mines in the main production area maintain normal production, mainly implementing long-term cooperative shipping, and the overall coal supply level is stable. The impact of methanol cost is mixed.

Demand side, downstream dimethyl ether: increasing demand for dimethyl ether; Downstream acetic acid: Increased demand for acetic acid; Downstream MTBE: MTBE demand increases; Downstream chloride: The load of some enterprises in Shandong has decreased, and the demand for methanol by chloride has decreased; Downstream formaldehyde: There is currently no plan to stop driving formaldehyde, and the demand fluctuation is not significant;. The majority of downstream demand for methanol has increased, and the demand for methanol is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, the overall loss exceeds the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.

In terms of external markets, as of the close of March 20th, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 367.50-368.50 US dollars/ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 99.00-100.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 336.50-337.50 euros/ton, down 5 euros/ton.

The future forecast is that the supply will remain abundant, and inventory will continue to be widely depleted. Downstream traditional demand maintains essential consumption. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly focus on strong consolidation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, formic acid has been rising again and again recently. As of March 17th, the average price of 85% formic acid in China was 3325 yuan/ton, an increase of 9% from 3050 yuan/ton at the beginning of March; An increase of 12.7% compared to the beginning of the year at 2950 yuan/ton; Compared to the same period last year, the price of 3300 yuan/ton has increased by 0.76%.

Shortage of supply

Rising raw material prices

Domestic methanol production remains at a relatively high level, with downstream MTO units restarting. At the same time, traditional demand is relatively stable, and the actual performance is good, which helps to boost the rise of formic acid.

According to the formic acid data analyst from Shengyi Society, the supply of formic acid in the market has decreased, coupled with the rise of raw materials, resulting in a strong operation. It is expected to continue to maintain a high level in the near future, but specific market news and changes in supply and demand still need to be monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from March 7th to 14th, the average price of BDO in China fell from 8014 yuan/ton to 7964 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.62% during the period, a month on month drop of 4.86%, and a year-on-year drop of 15.27%. Exploring the weakness of the domestic BDO market. Recently, the load on the equipment has not been high, and there is support from the supply side. The supplier’s intention to maintain price stability continues. But as new production capacity emerges, downstream bearish sentiment increases. Some of the manufacturers holding the goods lack confidence in their offers, and they are negotiating narrow discounts for actual orders, causing the market center of gravity to fluctuate downward.

There are significant fluctuations in the supply and installation aspects, and the industry’s capacity utilization rate has dropped below 50%. And there are still other devices for maintenance in the later stage, and the factory’s shipments are still acceptable, maintaining a stable market mentality. The supply of BDO is affected by favorable factors.

On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: there has been a significant decrease in supply, due to sporadic equipment maintenance and peak shaving production, in addition to unstable power restrictions, resulting in low market supply. The price of domestic calcium carbide market is rising. The domestic methanol market is operating strongly. As of 10:00 am on March 14th, the domestic methanol Taicang price was 2656 yuan/ton. The prices of raw materials such as calcium carbide and methanol are relatively strong, and the cost of BDO is influenced by favorable factors.

On the demand side, after a brief negative trend in the downstream PTMEG industry, some units are expected to undergo maintenance in mid to late March, while other industries have little change in production, resulting in limited increase in raw material digestion. Moreover, most downstream industries have been suffering long-term losses, and there is a strong bargaining sentiment towards raw materials. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.

In the future market forecast, some facilities will be shut down for maintenance, while the overall increase in new production capacity will be limited and supported by supply side inventory. And the industry has been suffering long-term losses, and the supply side’s stable market mentality continues. Business analyst BDO predicts that the domestic BDO market has limited volatility.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic palm oil market fluctuated and rose mainly in February, with an overall increase of nearly 5%. On February 1st, the average market price of palm oil was 9430 yuan/ton, and on February 27th, the average market price of palm oil was 9900 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.98%.

Long Short Game: Palm oil market oscillates and rises in February

During the Spring Festival, the overseas oil and fat market rose, and after the holiday, the palm oil market saw a rebound. The domestic futures market continued to rise, and the palm oil futures market pulled up, while the spot market followed suit. In addition, the main producing country Malaysia is currently experiencing a production reduction cycle, resulting in a 14.01% decrease in palm oil production from January 1st to 31st compared to the previous period.

In the middle of the month, Malaysia’s palm oil production forecast was raised due to negative factors, and the palm oil market experienced a decline after rising. Due to the low inventory of palm oil in the domestic market and tight supply, the palm oil market has experienced another upward trend after a decline, with high volatility being the main trend and the market remaining strong. Continuously hovering around the 10000 yuan mark. As of February 19th, the average price of palm oil in the domestic market has once again exceeded 10000 yuan/ton, and the market has risen.

At the end of the month, Malaysia’s palm oil exports declined, leading to a decline in the foreign palm oil market. Domestic palm oil futures followed suit and the spot market continued to weaken. The average price of palm oil in the domestic market has fallen below 10000 yuan, dropping to 9900 yuan/ton, a decrease of over 3%.

According to palm oil analysts from Shengyi Society, there are still favorable factors for Malaysian palm oil in March, and there is still room for domestic palm oil prices to rise in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market fluctuated within a certain range in February 2025, with an overall downward trend. From February 1st to 28th, the domestic toluene market price fell from 6620 yuan/ton to 6500 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.81% during the period.

In the first half of the month, the toluene market mainly fluctuated within a certain range, with a slight overall upward trend. After the holiday, the market trading is generally average, and downstream demand for replenishment is maintained, resulting in limited actual transactions. The demand for oil blending industry in Shandong region is still good, driving the market atmosphere to recover. In South China region, due to low inventory, the market atmosphere is good, and the listing prices of main refineries are relatively firm. The overall market is stable, with a slightly strong performance. Later, with the fluctuation of crude oil prices, the sentiment of the toluene market was affected, and the market operated weakly, resulting in a slight decrease in prices.

Late of the month: The toluene market as a whole is running weakly, and market prices have been slightly lowered multiple times. The performance of the oil blending industry in Shandong region is average, with xylene prices operating at a low level. Some purchasing refineries tend to purchase xylene, and there is a lack of demand support for the weak operation of the toluene market.

Cost aspect: The crude oil market has fluctuated and fallen this month, with price ranges fluctuating in the first half of the month. After entering the second half, prices first fell and then rose. On February 27th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $70.35 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $73.57 per barrel.

Supply side: Sinopec’s toluene enterprise is operating normally, with stable production of equipment and many products for personal use, resulting in stable production and sales. As of February 28th, East China Company quoted 6500 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6400 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6600-6700 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6550 yuan/ton.

Demand side:

On February 28th, the execution price of xylene by the petrochemical sales company was 7500 yuan/ton, and this price was implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other units operated stably and sold normally, with a price increase of 200 yuan/ton compared to January 31st. As of February 27th, the closing prices of the xylene market in Asia were 841-843 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 866-868 US dollars/ton CFR China.

Market forecast: The overall trend of crude oil is weak in the near future, and there is insufficient guidance for the toluene market. Recently, there has been a shortage of production in northern enterprises on the supply side, coupled with maintenance of some facilities in central China, which has led to an overall tight supply of toluene in the domestic market. However, port inventory has been relatively sufficient in recent times, and there are mixed negative and positive factors on the supply side, resulting in slight differences in market performance across different regions. From the demand side, recent purchases in Shandong region have mainly relied on the chemical and oil blending industries, with low inventory levels in factories. Overall, demand in other regions is still weak, and market trading is relatively quiet. Overall, there are significant regional differences in the toluene market, with Shandong continuing to maintain a stable to strong trend in the future, while other regions lack demand support and overall price trends are weak.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic 1 # lead ingot market will rise in February 2025, with an average price of 16750 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 17005 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly increase of 1.52%.

On February 28th, the Business Society Lead Index was 103.49, up 0.03 points from yesterday, down 22.77% from the highest point of 134.01 points during the cycle (2016-11-29), and up 38.67% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, in the form of a bar chart, reflects the weekly or monthly price changes. Investors can make buying and selling investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-pillar represents the range of rise and fall.

The lead market in February mainly showed a gradual recovery of supply and demand after the Spring Festival. In early February, both the supply and demand sides of the market showed a flat performance, and the lead price fluctuated mainly due to macroeconomic news and financial push. With the end of the Spring Festival holiday, both the supply and demand sides of the lead market are gradually recovering. After a brief rise, lead prices rebounded in the middle of the month and stabilized slightly at the end of the month.

On the raw material side, the progress of overseas mines resuming production has been delayed, and it is expected that their output will not show significant growth in the short term. In China, although mines have reduced production due to seasonal factors.

On the supply and demand side, as the festive atmosphere gradually dissipates, lead-acid battery companies are gradually resuming production. Since these enterprises have relatively limited stock of raw materials before the festival, it is expected that they will face some demand for stock replenishment after the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival). This demand will help to digest the current backlog of primary lead inventory in the market, thereby providing some support for lead prices.

Although lead-acid battery companies are resuming work and production, the current terminal consumption performance in the lead-acid battery market is not strong. The order situation of production enterprises has not shown obvious signs of improvement, and the consumption of lead is still mainly based on essential needs. This means that although the demand for replenishment may have a positive impact on lead prices, the weakness of end consumption may still limit the upward space for lead prices.

In February, the demand for recycled waste batteries was relatively tight, and production resumed slowly. The expected increase was relatively small, with a slight increase compared to January. It is expected that the pace of supply recovery will increase in March.

Overall, market sentiment has improved at the macro level, with slow resumption of production of recycled lead and a rebound in downstream lead-acid battery companies’ production. There are expectations of material replenishment in the future, and it is expected that lead prices will experience strong fluctuations in the short term.