From November 23 to 27, 2020, the market price of crude benzene will go down. The domestic ex factory price will be 2977 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 2886.25 yuan / ton at the weekend, with a weekly decrease of 3.05%.

Summary of Sinopec’s pure benzene price adjustment in November 2020 (unit: yuan / ton)

Date, adjusted price, adjusted amount

November 4, 3750, + 150

November 10, 3850, + 100

November 12, 4000, + 150

November 16, 4200, + 200

November 24, 4000, – 200

November 26, 4200, + 200

In November 2020, Sinopec’s pure benzene price increased five times and decreased once, with a cumulative increase of 600 yuan / ton. As of the 30th, all refineries under Sinopec had implemented the unified implementation of 4200 yuan / ton.

This week, the overall start-up of coking enterprises is still relatively high. After the seventh round of rising and landing of coke, the price of coke is temporarily high and stable. With the support of high profits of coking enterprises, enterprises are actively starting and selling well. Under the dual influence of environmental protection and de capacity in Shanxi, Shandong, Hebei, Henan and other regions, the operating rate in some areas has declined. This week, the price of pure benzene followed the trend of crude oil, and the price of pure benzene decreased by 200 yuan / ton on the 24th, and then decreased by 200 yuan / ton on the 26th. At present, the price is still 4200 yuan / ton. The bidding price of crude benzol in the main production areas will be lowered this week, while that in Shandong will be reduced by about 280 yuan / ton.

On the downstream side, the recent operating rate of hydrogenated benzene enterprises is stable at about 65%, which is on the rise as a whole. Some enterprises that shut down in the early stage started operation this month and have good demand for crude benzene.

In terms of aftermarket, the business agency believes that at present, the price of pure benzene fluctuates frequently and the port inventory is still high. However, the crude oil market is still performing well, and the external price of pure benzene is still high, which has certain support for the market. Market participants are generally optimistic about the future market, and the future market focuses on the price trend of downstream products and the external market trend.

Regional variety manufacturers rose and fell on November 25 compared with the previous day

South China LLDPE 7042 Guangzhou Petrochemical 8450 yuan / T + 200 yuan

South China LLDPE 7042 Fujian Lianhe 8400 yuan / T + 200 yuan

South China LLDPE 7042 Maoming Petrochemical 8600 yuan / T + 200 yuan

East China LDPE 2426h Daqing Petrochemical 12100 yuan / T + 300 yuan

East China LDPE 2426h Lanzhou Petrochemical 12100 yuan / T + 300 yuan

East China HDPE 5000S Yangzi Petrochemical 8700 yuan / T + 100 yuan

North China HDPE 5000S Yanshan Petrochemical 8500 yuan / T + 100 yuan

On November 25, the three major polyethylene varieties in the spot market rose to varying degrees. Petrochemical enterprises continued to raise the ex factory quotation, with the adjustment range of 100-300 yuan / ton, and the increase rate was slightly narrowed. High pressure market continued to lead the rise, linear and low pressure followed. Recently, international crude oil continued to rise, and the news brought certain benefits to the market. However, the decline of futures market had a certain impact on the market, and some spot areas fell. At present, the business mentality is good, positive shipment. However, there is no significant improvement in downstream demand. It is expected that the polyethylene market may fall in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium was 1933 yuan / ton on November 1, and 2033.33 yuan / ton on November 25, up 5.17%.

According to the business club’s large list data, on November 1, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium was 2356 yuan / ton, and on November 25, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium was 2406.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.12%.

2、 Market analysis

In the middle and late November, the price of monoammonium phosphate continued to rise. In Anhui Province, 55% powdered ammonium was quoted at 2050-2100 yuan / T, and the start-up was stable. In Hubei Province, the ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium is about 2050-2100 yuan / ton, and that of 60% powdered ammonium is 2310-2350 yuan / ton. The market in Henan maintained stable operation, 55% powdered ammonium was quoted at 2050 yuan / ton, and the start-up was stable. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong is 2150-2180 yuan / ton, and the price is stable. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Sichuan is about 2000-2100 yuan / ton.

The market of diammonium phosphate rose in the first ten days of November. The mainstream ex factory quotation of 64% diammonium in Hubei Province is 2370-2450 yuan / ton, that in Shandong Province is 1820-1830 yuan / ton, and that in Yunnan Guizhou area is 2550-2600 yuan / ton. In Gansu Province, 64% DAP mainstream factory quotation is 2300-2450 yuan / T. The price of 64% diammonium at the first arrival station in Heilongjiang Province is about 2750-2800 yuan / ton.

Phosphate rock, China’s domestic phosphate ore market is still stable in recent years. I heard that the turnover of phosphate rock in Guizhou and Hubei is slightly loose, and the market is slightly weak. The main reason is that the demand of the downstream terminal is weak, the market is falling slightly, the new orders of phosphate rock are reduced, and the orders in the early stage are mainly processed. Therefore, in order to stimulate the shipment, some enterprises slightly reduced the actual transaction price. In the short term, the market price of phosphate ore may be adjusted in a narrow range.

3、 Future forecast

Ammonium phosphate analysts of the business society believe that the supply of monoammonium phosphate continues to decline, inventory is not under pressure, enterprises are limited to order, the support of downstream compound fertilizer demand is still, and the raw materials are rising. It is expected that the price of monoammonium phosphate will continue to rise in the short term. Under the favorable support of tight supply of DAP in the field and the start-up of winter storage, the demand for diammonium phosphate is expected to be strong, or will continue to rise steadily.

Zinc price trend

According to the business agency data monitoring shows: this week, the zinc price fluctuated sharply, and the zinc market rose. As of November 23, the average price of zinc was 21480.00 yuan / ton, up 5.97% compared with 20270.00 yuan / ton on November 15 last week.

Weekly list of commodity up and down

Weekly list of commodity up and down (11.16 – 11.20)

The proportion of the big list’s rise, the proportion of decline and the average increase of the index

Top five steel products: 100.00% 0.00% 1.85% 1.86%

Plastic list: 100.00% 0.00% 5.25% 5.60%

General plastic list: 100.00% 0.00% 4.99% 4.98%

Rubber & plastic 20: 93.33% 6.67% 3.71%-

Steel index list: 90.00% 0.00% 1.45% 1.54%

Rubber and plastic index: 90.00% 10.00% 2.17% 2.79%

Building materials index: 85.71% 0.00% 2.18% 2.11%

Liquid chemical industry: 83.33% 5.56% 5.89%-

Black color: 80.00% 0.00% 1.93% 1.91%

Current agricultural products: 75.00% 12.50% 1.07% 0.44%

Rare earth 08: 75.00% 0.00% 4.13% 3.77%

Current industrial products list: 73.33% 26.67% 0.80% – 0.70%

Current commodity 2 70.83% 25.00% 0.79% – 0.46%

Chemical index: 66.67% 10.00% 3.53% 3.49%

Large 58 64.91% 22.81% 0.87%-

Current commodity list: 64.10% 25.64% 0.75% 0.93%

Energy index: 60.00% 30.00% 0.51% 0.58%

Commodity up and down 59.15% 16.90% 1.79%-

Shanghai and Shenzhen raw materials: 54.72% 19.81% 1.27%-

Energy 19: 53.85% 38.46% – 0.13%-

Resource commodity list: 52.00% 32.00% 0.32%-

Non ferrous index: 50.00% 50.00% 0.68% 0.43%

Base metal list: 50.00% 50.00% 0.36% 0.60%

Textile index: 50.00% 25.00% 0.35% 0.55%

Non ferrous period: 50.00% 50.00% 0.35% 1.35%

According to the statistics of the business agency, more than half of the commodities in the major commodity lists have risen, and the average prices of all other commodities on the list have increased to varying degrees except the energy 19 list. In the list of industries and commodities closely related to non-ferrous products, such as iron and steel black series, more than 80% of the products rose. Nonferrous plate and nonferrous futures spot market, nonferrous products are more than half of the product rise. The overall macro environment rose, driving the domestic zinc market favorable.

Analysis, review and Prospect

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst at the business agency, said: with the signing of RCEP, the world’s largest free trade zone, the macro-economic environment, which has been suppressed for nearly a year by the epidemic, ushers in dawn. Future macroeconomic expectations rose, stimulating the rise in commodity prices. Zinc ingot, as a major non-ferrous product, is greatly affected by macro-economy. The recovery of macro-economy stimulates the good market of zinc market, and the zinc market rises with the market.

This week, international crude oil prices rose by 5%, and domestic refined oil price adjustment ushered in an upward adjustment. However, due to the poor demand in the refined oil market, the domestic refined oil prices were weak. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the gasoline price on November 20 was 5185 yuan / ton, up 0.25% from the beginning of the week; on November 20, the price of diesel oil was 4633 yuan / ton, up 0.40% compared with the beginning of the week.

The overseas epidemic situation is still serious, and the international crude oil market demand is not good; however, there are also good news that OPEC will prolong the production reduction, the US shale oil production will decrease, and the development of new crown vaccine will be accelerated. The international crude oil price fluctuates upward, with WTI crude oil price increasing by 5.71% and Brent crude oil price increasing by 5.10% weekly.

In terms of gasoline demand, the weather turned cold and the number of car trips increased slightly, which supported the gasoline market demand to a certain extent. However, the middle and lower reaches of the industry were not optimistic about the future market prices, and the market transaction atmosphere turned weak, and the market lacked of upstream action; in terms of diesel demand, the domestic weather was getting colder, and the outdoor diesel demand for road engineering and infrastructure projects was gradually declining, and the middle and lower customers were more interested in the future market Empty attitude, diesel market is facing greater downward pressure.

As of November 20, the average start-up load of the daily decompression unit was about 75%, and the start-up load of the refinery remained at a high level, and the domestic product oil supply was sufficient.

Lu Xingjun, an oil product analyst at the business club, believes: the international crude oil price has temporarily stabilized at US $40 / barrel, but the foreign epidemic situation is still relatively serious. In the short term, the international crude oil market demand will be poor, the crude oil price will continue to be under pressure, and the domestic oil product market is also lack of demand support. It is expected that the domestic oil product price will be stable and small in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus was stable this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus is 16350 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

The price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus was stable this week. The yellow phosphorus market new order transaction situation is general, the manufacturer mainly sends the early order, the yellow phosphorus market transaction is relatively light. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 16500 yuan / ton; that in Sichuan is about 16500 yuan / ton; that in Guizhou is about 16200 yuan / ton. With the dry season approaching, the electricity price cost is facing an increase, and the production cost of yellow phosphorus enterprises is increasing.

As for raw materials, as of November 19, Guizhou Province: 30% grade phosphate ore truck plate quotation reference 300-360 yuan / ton, 28% grade phosphate ore vehicle plate quotation reference 280-320 yuan / ton, Guizhou Xifeng mining 30% grade phosphate rock factory quotation reference 350 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the month flat. Guizhou Kaiyang Guanglong mining 30% grade phosphate rock freight plant quoted 320 yuan / ton, flat compared with the beginning of the month. The price of 28% ammonium phosphate ore ship plate in Hubei Province is 330-360 yuan / ton. The growth rate of new domestic phosphate ore mines is not large, most of them are supplied to old customers, and the downstream demand is general. According to the phosphorus ore Data Engineer of business society, the phosphate ore market is mainly stable in the short term, and the overall fluctuation is limited.

In terms of coke, as of the 20th, the coke market is stable and strong. Coking enterprises are still operating at a high level, with low inventory, and the resources available for sale in ports are still relatively small. The market price of Panzhihua coke (secondary metallurgical coke) is 2380 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the price on the previous trading day and 200 yuan / ton higher than that of the same period last month.

In terms of demand, this week’s phosphoric acid market demand follow-up is insufficient, individual enterprises are under pressure to ship, new orders are generally traded, the price of phosphoric acid is facing a stalemate in the short term, and the market has a strong wait-and-see mood. The start-up of phosphate, phosphorus trichloride and phosphorus pentoxide declined, the market demand decreased, and the demand for yellow phosphorus weakened.

3、 Future forecast

Chemical branch of the business club yellow phosphorus analysts believe that this week the price of yellow phosphorus stable operation. As the dry season approaches, the production cost of yellow phosphorus enterprises will increase, and it is expected that the price rising operation of yellow phosphorus enterprises will be dominated in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of November 19, the ex factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol was 12466 yuan / ton. Compared with November 17, the average price was increased by 1800 yuan / ton, or 16.87%; compared with November 1, the average price was increased by 3130 yuan / ton, or 33.57%.

Raw materials up, spot tension, propylene glycol ushered in “skyrocketing”

At the beginning of the month, the domestic industrial grade propylene glycol market was greatly affected by the raw material propylene oxide, the price fell slightly, and the market atmosphere was not good. Starting from the second week of November, the market trend of propylene oxide rebounded, and the rising range of propylene glycol affected by cost continued to increase. Until the middle of this week (18th), the factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol increased sharply again by 1000-2500 yuan / ton. On the one hand, the reason for the sharp rise is the strong cost support given by the strong rise of raw material propylene oxide. On the other hand, due to the recent increase in foreign trade orders and the shortage of spot goods in the market, it is difficult to get a single order. The Data Engineer of the business agency learned from relevant people in the industry yesterday that at present, the market supply of propylene glycol basically relies on “grabbing”, and there is basically no stock in the market. At present, as of November 19, the ex factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol is 12466 yuan / ton. Compared with November 17, the average price has increased by 1800 yuan / ton, or 16.87%; compared with November 1, the average price has increased by 3130 yuan / ton, or 33.57%.

Upstream, the beginning of this week, raw material propylene oxide market strong upward. As of November 19, the average price quoted by propylene oxide enterprises was 18033 yuan / ton, up 16.84% compared with last weekend (November 15). At present, the inventory of propylene oxide plant is not under pressure, part of the quantity is controlled, the inventory of raw materials downstream of the terminal is low, and the willingness to replenish is strong, which supports the price rise of propylene oxide. At present, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong is around 17500-19000 yuan / ton.

Low inventory pressure, propylene glycol short-term high operation

At present, the domestic industrial grade propylene glycol inventory pressure is basically not, the raw material support is strong, and the fundamentals are good. However, the hidden dangers brought by the large-scale surge can not be ignored, and the downstream or growing fear of heights, forming a cautious wait-and-see situation. Therefore, the business club propylene glycol data division believes that in the short term, propylene glycol market continues to run high and weak, and the overall high stable operation is given priority to.

On the 16th, the acetone market rose sharply, with the negotiation range higher than 8200 yuan / T. under the tight supply of goods, the sellers offered very little, but they were reluctant to sell. It is reported that there were only about 10000 tons of acetone left in the port at the weekend, while the domestic goods had little pressure to ship, and the market circulation supply was once in a tense situation. On Monday, major domestic factories followed the trend to increase 400 yuan / ton, and Yangzhou Shiyou shipping price and blue star Harbin offer to 8500 yuan / ton. Downstream products have been rising, purchasing sentiment is not reduced, supporting the market continues to push higher. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the domestic mainstream factories offer 8000-8500 yuan / ton. In terms of the market situation, the market offer in East China is about 8400 yuan / ton, and that in Yanshan and Shandong is 8200 yuan / ton in the morning. In the afternoon, the market offers are less, while in South China, the offer is nearly 9000 yuan / ton, showing a marked market rise.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, on November 1, factories in East China made an offer of 6775 yuan / ton, and on November 16, the average offer of factories in East China was 8125 yuan / ton, with the ex factory price rising by 19.93%; while in the East China market, from 7100 yuan / ton on November 1 to 8450 yuan / ton on November 16, the East China market rose by 19%.

The product itself, the supply pressure is not big, and the downstream demand continues to be good and stable. East China, as the wind vane of the national market, especially after mid November, there is little pressure on domestic factories to supply products. However, affected by the epidemic situation, overseas import sources are not stable, especially at port 15, when the inventory drops to about 10000 tons, the supply pressure is not great.

From the perspective of the industrial chain, the upstream raw material pure benzene market went up obviously. Driven by the surge of styrene, the price of pure benzene rose sharply, and the price of styrene continued to rise. At the end of last week, the price of pure benzene in most Shandong local refineries was increased to 4000 yuan / ton, and the spot negotiation was active. On the 16th, Sinopec’s pure benzene price increased by 200 yuan / ton to 4200 yuan / ton, and the domestic pure benzene price was in the range of 4100-4450 yuan / ton. In terms of propylene, the price of Shandong market is running at 6850 yuan / T, and there are many downstream products of propylene. Although the market of polypropylene and other products is improving, the start-up of butane octanol unit has been reduced, and the purchasing area has been reduced. It is expected that the propylene price will continue to stabilize in the near future.

In terms of downstream market, bisphenol a market “soaring” contributed greatly to the growth of acetone. The bisphenol a market was first affected by the sharp upward trend of the downstream epoxy resin industry. Most of the opening factories closed their offers this week, among which Lihua yiweiyuan’s guiding price was 18200 yuan / T, while in the market, there were few offers from the shippers, the domestic supply was very tight, and only a small number of large traders still had goods in their hands, and we heard that the small order on the 16th was 18500 yuan / ton, so the current goods were tight There is still room for expansion. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the market offer of bisphenol a rose from 12600 yuan / ton to 18400-18500 yuan / ton in early November, with a cumulative increase of 45% in November.

Market forecast: the domestic spot resource supply is insufficient, the cargo holder’s mentality is positive, the push up pace is not reduced, the market has not expected to turn around, the downstream purchasing sentiment is high, it is expected that the East China market will operate at a high level, and the negotiation will be at 8500 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

This week, the factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose. The quoted price rose from 1796.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1806.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 10 yuan / ton or 0.56%, and 6.27% higher than that of the same period last year. Overall, this week’s urea market rose, urea commodity index on November 6 was 84.03.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation point of view, the mainstream urea factory price in Shandong area rose this week. At the end of the week, the price of urea in Yangmei plain was 1820 yuan / ton, which was 20 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; the price of Shandong Ruixing urea was 1800 yuan / ton at the end of this week, 10 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; the price of open water urea was 1800 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of supply and demand, the domestic demand is fair, the agricultural demand in the northern region has followed up, and the industrial demand follows the market and purchases on demand. On the supply side, some enterprises limited production and equipment maintenance, resulting in local spot shortage.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chain, the overall decline of urea upstream products this week: the price of liquefied natural gas fell, with the quotation of liquefied natural gas falling from 3680.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3600.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 2.17%, and a year-on-year decrease of 11.04% compared with the same period of last year; the price of liquid ammonia dropped from 3100.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2966.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 4.30% compared with the same period of last year , a year-on-year decrease of 4.81%. The price of melamine downstream of urea rose this week, rising by 7.45% from 6266.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6733.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week. Overall, this week’s urea cost support is weak.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle and late November, the market of urea in Shandong Province may rise slightly. Urea analysts of the business club believe that the current agricultural demand has followed up, and the downstream industry is still enthusiastic about urea procurement, and the industrial demand is to be purchased on demand. It is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate and rise slightly.

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of o-benzene was stable in November, and the market of o-benzene was temporarily stable. As of November 13, Sinopec has offered 4400.00 yuan / ton of o-xylene in East China and 4400 yuan / ton in North China, which is stable compared with that at the beginning of the month. Since July 21, the price of o-benzene has remained stable. Although the market of o-benzene fluctuated, it did not support the sharp rise and fall of o-benzene price. However, with the accumulation of pressure, the upward momentum of o-benzene increased.

Upstream market of o-benzene

It can be seen from the price trend chart of mixed xylene that the price of mixed xylene first fell and then rose in November. In general, the price of mixed xylene rose by 2.65% in November. The cost of o-xylene rose, and the driving force for the price of o-xylene increased, and the downward pressure weakened.

Trend of downstream products

It can be seen from the phthalic anhydride price trend chart that the phthalic anhydride price rose sharply in November, with an increase of 11.35%. The phthalic anhydride market rose, which was good for the o-benzene market, and the demand for o-benzene in the downstream was warmer, and the driving force for the price rise of o-phthalic anhydride was increased.

Future forecast

According to Bai Jiaxin, an o-xylene data analyst at the business agency, in November, the price of mixed xylene of o-benzene raw materials fell first and then rose, the cost of o-benzene rose, and the external price of o-benzene rose in a volatile way, which supported the domestic o-xylene market. The phthalic anhydride price rose sharply in November, the downstream market of o-benzene recovered, and the demand for o-xylene recovered, and the driving force for the rise of o-benzene was increased. Generally speaking, the market of o-benzene was temporarily stable in November, but the driving force for the rise of o-benzene increased, and the price of o-benzene was expected to rise slightly in the future.