1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda remained firm on May 29th, with a market average price of around 885 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.45% compared to yesterday. On May 28th, the Business Social Chemical Index was 802 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 42.71% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (October 23, 2021), and an increase of 34.11% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda is rising and running in the market. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is around 810-920 yuan/ton in the mainstream market of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is stable, and the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali is around 920-980 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is temporarily stable, and the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali is around 2750-2850 yuan/ton (converted to 100%). The inventory of caustic soda enterprises remains relatively low, and the downstream demand for caustic soda has increased compared to before. Shandong liquid alkali is expected to maintain a consolidation market, and the overall inventory pressure of caustic soda is not significant. The non aluminum industry mainly relies on on-demand procurement.
Business analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has been operating steadily, and the domestic downstream demand is still acceptable, supporting the strong operation of caustic soda prices. The comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda will maintain a strong operating market in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, in the second half of May, favorable factors supported the recovery of the domestic adipic acid market, with an increase of over 2%. On May 15th, the average market price of adipic acid was 7233 yuan/ton, and on May 26th, the average market price of adipic acid in China was 7400 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.3%.

Cost increases, domestic adipic acid market overall rebounds
Starting from mid May, the market for pure benzene and cyclohexanone raw materials for adipic acid has remained strong, and the demand for end plastics industry has increased, resulting in higher prices for adipic acid manufacturers. The domestic adipic acid market has seen an improvement in transactions and a rise in the market. As the end of the month approaches, the price of adipic acid continues to operate at a high level. As of May 26th, the average market price of adipic acid has risen to around 7400 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 100-200 yuan/ton.
An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in June, the rigid demand in the terminal industry improved, and the raw material market rose. The market for adipic acid will continue to remain strong in the future.

The domestic fluorite price trend has declined this week, with an average price of 3525 yuan/ton as of the weekend, a decrease of 2.25% from the initial price of 3606.25 yuan/ton and a year-on-year decrease of 7.39%.
Supply side: Normal operation, normal supply of fluorite

The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has increased. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. However, with the rise in temperature, northern enterprises are gradually starting production, and the supply of fluorite enterprises in the field has increased. The lack of active procurement has led to sufficient spot goods in the field. This week, the fluorite market continued to decline.
Demand side: The price of hydrofluoric acid is temporarily stable, and the refrigerant market is still acceptable
This week, the domestic price of hydrofluoric acid has remained stable, with mainstream prices ranging from 11200-11700 yuan/ton in various regions of China. Some downstream hydrofluoric acid units are still shut down, and there is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. Manufacturers mainly purchase hydrofluoric acid on demand, and the overall production of hydrofluoric acid remains at more than 50%. Fluorine enterprises maintain essential orders, and hydrofluoric acid enterprises are in a loss making state. They are not actively purchasing raw fluorite, and downstream merchants have a strong wait-and-see attitude. Both buyers and sellers have weak expectations for the future due to poor demand digestion. Recently, some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers have shown a downward trend, which has affected the price of fluorite and led to a decline in the market.
The downstream refrigerant market in the terminal industry is still promising, and the terminal policy of the refrigerant industry is being strengthened. Demand is expected to achieve substantial improvement. Fluorine chemical enterprises within quota control have strong confidence in raising prices in the refrigerant market. Currently, the pace of high price procurement is relatively slow, but the industry inventory is transmitting in a positive and orderly manner. Due to high prices, the enthusiasm for stocking up in the terminal industry is low, and upstream products are mainly purchased on demand. The trend of refrigerant market is average, while the fluorite market continues to decline.
In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in national defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF、 Graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc., have received certain support in the application of fluorite due to the demand for new energy and semiconductors.
Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production and undergone safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a positive support for the fluorite market. However, in some areas, the lack of active fluorite procurement has led to an increase in inventory. In addition, downstream resistance to high prices is severe, and hydrofluoric acid enterprises mainly purchase on demand, with no actual increase in demand. Overall, the fluorite market price has slightly decreased in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from May 12th to 16th, the domestic ethanol price rose from 5293 yuan/ton to 5374 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.52%, a month on month increase of 2.60%, and a year-on-year decrease of 11.28%. The ethanol market continues to rise, with some regions facing significant cost pressures for enterprises. Orders are shipped, production is not high, inventory pressure is not significant, and there is a clear intention to increase prices. However, new orders have limited transactions.

In terms of cost, the price of corn fluctuates. The arrival volume of deep processed corn in Shandong and Hebei is still acceptable, and some enterprises have seen a narrow reduction in corn prices. Henan’s deep processing enterprises have generally received goods and prices have increased. Before the wheat harvest, grassroots grain points were able to monetize their shipments, but overall supply pressure was not significant. The cost of ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.
There are unlikely to be significant favorable factors in the supply of ethanol.
On the demand side, from the demand side, the demand for Baijiu fluctuates little, and the downstream stock of chemical industry needs to be replenished. The short-term demand for ethanol has a moderate impact.
In the future, with stable supply and ongoing cost pressures, companies have a clear willingness to raise prices, and ethanol prices may remain stable. Business Society’s ethanol analyst predicts that the domestic ethanol market will consolidate and operate in the short term.

Product Name: Pure Benzene
Latest price: On May 13th, the average market price was 5785.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.66% compared to the previous trading day.
Analysis: The price of pure benzene in the domestic market has increased. The high-level economic and trade talks between China and the United States have reached a consensus, and market concerns about the risk of trade disputes have weakened, leading to an increase in international oil prices. Affected by macro positive factors and yesterday’s rise in the price of pure benzene in foreign markets, market sentiment quickly improved, and pure benzene industry players had good confidence, leading to a strong upward trend in pure benzene prices. However, the market still needs to pay more attention to whether downstream demand can return. It is expected that the pure benzene market will be more cautious in the short term, and actual transactions will be discussed on a case by case basis.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from May 6th to 9th, MTBE prices rose from 4862 yuan/ton to 4875 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.26% during the period, a month on month decrease of 13.14%, and a year-on-year decrease of 32.41%. During the May Day holiday, the market experienced a significant decline, suppressed by multiple factors such as a drop in crude oil prices, weak gasoline prices, and poor logistics transportation. Prices showed a clear downward trend, and downstream businesses moderately bought up inventory after the holiday, slowing down the decline. However, the market still faced resistance due to weak resource supply, and the overall trend remained weak.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: The international oil price has fallen, and the main negative factors are: OPEC+will accelerate production increase, and the positive signals released by the US Iran negotiations have eased the situation in Iran. As of May 8th, the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $62.84 per barrel.
On the demand side, in terms of gasoline terminal demand, during the May Day holiday, the middle and lower reaches digested inventory, weak transactions, and refinery prices fell; Although there has been an increase in post holiday replenishment trading volume, crude oil has dropped significantly, and the rebound of gasoline and diesel is weak; Under low inventory of diesel, the market support is strong, and the price drop is smaller than that of gasoline. The MTBE demand side is affected by bearish factors.
On the supply side, there is a shutdown plan and an expectation of reduced resource supply. The short-term domestic MTBE supply is affected by favorable factors.
As of the close on May 8th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by $13.51 per ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $649.53-651.53 per ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market has increased by $13/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB ARA closing at $741.49-741.99/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States increased by $15.09 per ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $708.29-708.64 per ton (199.99-200.09 cents per gallon).
Future forecast: Currently, MTBE is suffering from severe losses, and manufacturers are not willing to offer discounts. However, demand is substantively weak. MTBE analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the domestic MTBE market is mainly characterized by weak fluctuations.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of the 30th, the price of ethyl acetate was 5516.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.30% compared to the price of 5533.33 yuan/ton on April 26th, and a decrease of 1.08% from the beginning of the month. Supply side enterprises are experiencing poor shipments, raw material prices are falling, and downstream demand is average before the holiday. As a result, the market for ethyl acetate has once again declined.
There has been little change in the operation of domestic ethyl acetate plants this week, and the market supply of goods is sufficient. The price of ethyl acetate continues to fall, and the upstream market is weak, with weakened cost support. The demand side consumes inventory slowly, and the enthusiasm for entering the market for purchasing is poor. The mentality of the industry is bearish, and the price of ethyl acetate continues to decline.
In the future, the ethyl acetate market is expected to remain weak and stable, with downstream companies adopting a wait-and-see attitude and insufficient demand support. Supply side enterprises are facing increased inventory and sales pressure, and there is a lack of favorable market conditions. It is expected that the price of ethyl acetate will continue to operate weakly in the short term, and specific attention will be paid to changes in supplier equipment and downstream follow-up.