According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic polyester filament market situation remained weak at the end of November. At present, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang Province have polyester POY (150D/48F) prices at 6700-7100 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) prices at 7750-8300 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) prices at 7550-8000 yuan/ton.

On November 29, international crude oil futures closed higher. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $78.20/barrel, up by US $0.96 or 1.2%. The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 84.25 dollars/barrel, up 0.36 dollars or 0.4%. The news of output reduction of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) is still fermenting. In addition, the expected pressure on the demand of the number one oil importer has eased, and the oil price has been boosted.

Driven by crude oil, the average price of domestic PTA spot market was 5553 yuan/ton on November 30, up 1.68% from November 28. However, at the PTA supply end, the unit load remains around 70%. In terms of new capacity, the 2.5 million ton unit of Jiatong Energy and the 2.5 million ton unit of Dongying William are gradually released, and the pressure on new capacity is gradually coming. In addition, terminal orders are weak, demand is weak and PTA is gradually accumulating.

With the departure of the traditional peak season of “Jin Jiuyin Shi” and the arrival of the off-season of demand, the domestic sales data of domestic textiles and clothing continued to decline, and the window for the replenishment stage of foreign textile industry has been closed. While domestic sales are weak and export sales are poor, the overall downstream terminal demand support is still weak. With the sharp decline of weaving machine rate in the market, the weaving operation rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang fell below 55%. It is extremely difficult for textile enterprises to effectively improve their orders at the end of the year.

Analysts from the business community believe that with the launch of PTA’s new capacity, the accumulated inventory is expected to rise, and the cost side support will be loosened. The demand side will face the Double Twelfth and Christmas Day next month, only sporadic small orders will be issued, and the terminal market improvement is not expected to be high. It is expected that polyester prices will continue to operate in a weak position in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price index of the domestic rare earth market has not changed much, and the domestic rare earth market is mainly stable. On November 28, the rare earth index was 630 points, unchanged from yesterday, 37.44% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 1007 points (2022-02-24), and 132.47% higher than the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

The domestic prices of neodymium oxide, metal neodymium, praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide changed slightly, while the prices of metal praseodymium and praseodymium oxide declined. As of September 29, the price of praseodymium and neodymium metal was 800000 yuan/ton, up 1.27% in November; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 660000 yuan/ton, up 2.33%; The price of neodymium oxide was 730000 yuan/ton, down 0.68%; The price of neodymium metal is 910000 yuan/ton, and the price trend is stable; The price of praseodymium metal was 905000 yuan/ton, down 4.23%; The price of praseodymium oxide was 675,000 yuan/ton, down 6.9%.

The circulation of light rare earth in China is relatively cold, the enterprise’s inventory is overstocked, and the downstream inquiry list is cold, so the procurement is poor, and the market situation of light rare earth is weak and difficult to change. The supply of light rare earth is mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia. Due to the limited transportation in Baotou and other regions, the manufacturer’s shipment is limited, and the production of enterprises is relatively normal, but the transportation is relatively difficult, and the spot supply is reduced. Recently, the inventory of downstream magnetic material merchants still exists, and some manufacturers mainly digest the inventory. The purchasing mood is not good, resulting in the scarcity of orders, dealers’ difficulty in shipping, and the rare earth market remains weak.

The price of dysprosium series of heavy rare earth in China rose slightly. As of the 29th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.305 million yuan/ton, up 1.54% in November; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 2.285 million yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.66%; The price of dysprosium metal was 2.98 million yuan/ton, up 0.85%; The price of domestic terbium is mainly stable. The price of domestic terbium oxide is 13.1 million yuan/ton, and the price of metal terbium is 16.425 million yuan/ton. The price of heavy rare earth is mainly stable. The raw material inventory of separation enterprises in the regions where rare earth mines are used in Sichuan and other regions is reduced. Production enterprises are gradually starting to work. The supply of heavy rare earth is increased. The price of heavy rare earth has not changed much. However, Myanmar’s exports are limited, and the global supply of rare earths is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas next to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great influence on the domestic heavy rare earth market products, and the market price of heavy rare earth remains high.

According to the data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the production and sales of automobiles in China will reach 2.599 million and 2.505 million respectively in October 2022, up 11.1% and 6.9% year on year. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 762000 and 714000 respectively, with year-on-year growth of 87.6% and 81.7%, and the market share reached 28.5%. The production and sales of automobiles rose, the demand in the new energy field was still supported, and the price in the domestic rare earth market was mainly stable.

The new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earths have achieved sustainable development. Recently, downstream businesses have gradually started their procurement mode. In the short term, the price of rare earths in the market has risen slightly. In the long term, the demand for rare earths is still guaranteed, and they are optimistic about the development of the rare earth industry.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the sulfur market rose and fell sharply in 2022, and the price fluctuated greatly in the year. The difference between the highest price and the lowest price is 3100 yuan/ton, with an amplitude of 76.73%. Up to now, the sulfur price is 1410.00 yuan/ton, which is 30.43% lower than the sulfur price of 2026.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year. The overall market situation is weak.

From the perspective of sulfur price trend in 2022, it can be divided into the following four stages:

Continuously climbing (from January to the end of May): In February, due to the downstream demand for pre holiday stock and post holiday replenishment, the sulfur enterprises shipped smoothly, the suppliers were optimistic, and the sulfur price continued to rise in 2021; 3. In April, due to geopolitical factors, international sulfur resources were tight, external prices were firm, import resources were limited, and port inventories were low. At the same time, downstream operations resumed, and factories and traders had strong demand for sulfur, with multiple advantages superimposed. Sulfur prices were firm and upward; In May, the overhaul of domestic refineries was concentrated, and the output was limited, while the downstream phosphate fertilizer market was rising, and the demand for sulfur was stable and good, driving the sulfur price higher. On May 27, the sulfur price rose to the highest level in the year, 4063.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 100.49% over the beginning of the year.

Rapid decline (early June to the end of July): the trend of sulfur in this stage has dropped sharply. The price of sulfur has dropped from 4050.00 yuan/ton to the lowest level of 940.00 yuan/ton in the year, a drop of 76.79%. The price of sulfur has dropped by 1000 yuan. The reason is that the market supply and demand have changed from short supply to over supply. With the increase of arrival at the port and the accumulation of inventory in the port, the operating rate of domestic refineries is relatively high, and the market supply is sufficient. The downstream side has a resistance to the high price of sulfur, and the market procurement is insufficient. In addition, the downstream has entered the off-season of traditional industries, the operating rate of phosphate fertilizer plants has declined, and the market demand has been sluggish. In order to maintain the rhythm of shipment, some traders have lowered their quotations, and the low price supply has impacted the market, which makes the market pessimistic, Sulfur prices continued to fall.

Consolidation operation (August): The sulfur market continued to fall in June and July, bringing the price down to near the cost line. The intention of downstream stockpiling increased, bringing benefits to the market. On the supply side, the inventory of domestic refineries remained low, and the port was reluctant to sell, giving the market some support. However, due to the large overall inventory pressure of downstream production enterprises, the purchase into the market was limited, and the supply and demand of the sulfur market were deadlocked, so the price trend was stable.

Interval shock (early September to the end of November): the sulfur price trend was up – down – up. Affected by typhoon weather, the arrival of imported resources at the port was reduced, the port inventory was tight, the attitude of the cargo holders was firm, and the quotation rose. At the same time, the replenishment operation before the National Day in the downstream increased, the enterprise shipped smoothly, and the sulfur price trend rose; In the autumn of October, fertilizer consumption came to an end, downstream demand became weaker, and in addition, the number of arrivals increased gradually. Downstream purchases tended to the port market. At the same time, affected by public health events, transportation was limited, domestic refinery shipments were poor, and the sulfur trend was weak and downward; In November, the winter storage market of phosphate fertilizer was opened, and the export market improved. The downstream demand for sulfur increased, the port sulfur price rose, and the market atmosphere was bullish, driving the price of domestic refineries up.

Future prospects:

Supply side: The data shows that from January to October 2022, China’s sulfur output will be about 7.1 million tons, and its sulfur imports will be 6.65 million tons. There is a large domestic sulfur demand gap, and the dependence on imported sulfur will be high. At the same time, because domestic sulfur refineries mainly supply downstream factories around, most terminals tend to purchase in the port market, and they are scheduled in advance. The port market inventory is tight, and the mentality of the cargo holders is firm.

Demand side: With the development of the downstream phosphate fertilizer winter storage market, the demand for sulfur has increased. In addition, with the goods prepared before the Spring Festival, the demand continues to be good, and the future demand is strong.

According to the sulfur data engineer of the business community, the sulfur market will rise and fall sharply in 2022. Although affected by many factors, it is generally caused by changes in supply and demand. At present, the supply side of domestic refineries has no pressure on inventory, the port market is tight in supply, and the demand side is supportive. It is expected that the short-term sulfur situation will mainly rise, and the long-term trend will be volatile in 2023.

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average offer price of PC domestic sample enterprises was 18333.33 yuan/ton on November 1, and the domestic price was 17950 yuan/ton on November 25, with a range of – 2.09%.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: it can be seen from the figure above that bisphenol A continued to decline in late November, and the price has gradually approached the cost line. However, the continuous downturn of phenol is difficult to support bisphenol A. After the price reduction, buyers were not enough to enter the market, and the market remained weak, dragging down the cost of PC.

In terms of supply: the utilization rate of PC capacity rose slightly this week, with the total load of domestic PC enterprises at about 45%, up from 55% a month earlier. As the industry neared the end of the year, the maintenance was gradually concentrated, and the supply side was significantly tightened. However, the flow of goods in the market is slow, which has hit the confidence of enterprises and merchants in price fixing.

Demand: PC terminal enterprises started at a low position this week, and they just need to maintain production when getting goods. The operators have an empty mind and keep a cautious wait-and-see attitude. The actual orders are mainly scattered.

Future market forecast

In late November, the PC market fluctuated and fell, the upstream bisphenol A was weak and difficult to change, and the support for PC cost collapsed. The low load of domestic polymerization plants rebounded in a narrow range, and the good supply side failed to smooth the weak demand. On the whole, the weak market supply and demand and cost collapse coexist. It is expected that the PC market will continue to be dominated by weak consolidation market in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffins 52 was 6033 yuan/ton on November 18, and 6000 yuan/ton on November 24. The price of chlorinated paraffins 52 fell 0.55% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic price of chlorinated paraffin 52 fell slightly this week. The prices of liquid wax and liquid chlorine of raw materials continued to decline this week, with weak market trend and insufficient cost support. The downstream demand of chlorinated paraffin is still sluggish, and the market trading is poor. The industry is mainly wait-and-see. As of November 24, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui was about 6400 yuan/ton, that in Northeast China was about 6000 yuan/ton, and that in Shandong was about 5600 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the price of liquid wax continued to fall this week, and the market followed the trend of crude oil. The liquid wax was shipped stably, and the transaction was average. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the liquid chlorine market mainly declined this week, and the liquid chlorine market in Shandong Province fell sharply. The on-site shipment was slow, and the overall flow of goods was not smooth.

3、 Future market forecast

According to the chlorinated paraffin analysts of the business community, the current cost support of chlorinated paraffin is weak, the demand side performance continues to be sluggish, and the overall market of chlorinated paraffin is weak. It is expected that the chlorinated paraffin market will be dominated by weak and stable operation in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the changes in the feedstock side.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of November 18, the price of PET water bottle was running strongly. At present, the average price is 7340.00 yuan/ton, 2.8% higher than that of the same period last week. The overall market is in an upward trend. At present, the operating rate is stable, downstream just needs to purchase, and the transaction atmosphere is general.

This week, the domestic PET price went up, with a slight increase. The mainstream price was about 7300 yuan/ton. At present, the market operation rate is stable, the negotiation atmosphere is fair, and the downstream suppliers are willing to stock up. The manufacturers are active in shipping.

Rubber and plastic commodity index: On November 17, the rubber and plastic index was 675 points, unchanged from yesterday, 36.32% lower than the highest point in the cycle 1060 points (March 14, 2012), and 27.84% higher than the lowest point 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

PET analysts from the business agency believe that the mainstream price of PET market is expected to be stable and strong in the short term.

Aluminum fluoride price rises this week

According to the data from the business community, as of November 21, the average price of aluminum fluoride in China was 11725 yuan/ton, 200 yuan/ton higher than the price of 11525 yuan/ton on November 13, or 1.74%. The cost rose, and the price of aluminum fluoride continued to rise this week.

Price rise of raw materials

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of fluorite rose slightly this week. As of November 21, the price of fluorite was 3212.50 yuan/ton, up 0.39% from 3200 yuan/ton on November 13; The price of hydrofluoric acid continued to rise this week. As of November 21, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 11342.86 yuan/ton, up 1.66% from 11157.14 yuan/ton on November 13. This week, the prices of raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid rose in shock, the cost of aluminum fluoride rose, and the upward momentum of aluminum fluoride increased.

Market overview and forecast

Analysts from the aluminum fluoride industry of the business community believe that: the prices of raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid have risen in shock, the cost of aluminum fluoride has risen, and the momentum for aluminum fluoride to rise has increased. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will rise in shock in the future.

This week, DOP prices rose in shock

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of November 21, the DOP price was 10100 yuan/ton, up 0.70% from 10030 yuan/ton on November 11. This week, the DOP price rose in shock, and the DOP market recovered.

The price of raw material isooctanol rises in shock

According to the price monitoring of the business community, as of November 21, the price of isooctanol was 9366.67 yuan/ton, up 2.18% from 9166.67 yuan/ton on November 13. The inventory of isooctanol is low, and the market has a certain positive support. The price of isooctanol rises in shock.

Price of raw material phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

According to the price monitoring of the business community, as of November 21, the quotation of phthalic anhydride by o-benzene method was 9025 yuan/ton, down 1.37% from 9150 yuan/ton on November 13. The construction of phthalic anhydride from ortho phthalic anhydride was improved, and the supply of phthalic anhydride increased. The price of phthalic anhydride from ortho phthalic anhydride fell sharply this week.

Future market expectation

According to the DOP data analysts of the business agency, the price of isooctanol rose in shock, while the price of phthalic anhydride fell slightly. The cost of DOP is rising, and the demand is low. It is expected that the future DOP price will be strong and stable.

The domestic aggregate MDI market continued to rise slightly last week, and low prices were heard near the weekend, but there was no specific deal. In the early stage, the domestic aggregate MDI price has dropped to the low point within the year. Driven by raw materials, the price has risen and the atmosphere has improved. At present, the price of raw materials is relatively low, and the traders still continue to be optimistic in the early stage. Small orders are shipped, but low prices are not available. As of November 18, the mainstream offer price of domestic Wanhua goods (PM200) was 14600-15000 yuan/ton, and that of Shanghai goods (44V20, M20S, 5005) was 13900-14100 yuan/ton.

According to the sample data monitored by the business community, from November 11 to 18, the domestic aggregate MDI market price rose from 14400 yuan/ton to 14775 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.60% in the week, a year-on-year decline of 13.90% and 26.25%.

According to the price rise and fall chart of the polymerized MDI industrial chain products of the business community, the products with the price decline of the polymerized MDI industrial chain during the cycle include aniline (- 23.94%), formaldehyde (- 3.11%), polymerized MDI (- 13.9%) and spandex (- 2.97%).

Summary of domestic aggregate MDI market as of November 18:

Region, Wanhua Goods, Shanghai Goods

East China, above 14800-15000 yuan/ton, 13800-13900 yuan/ton

In North China, around 14500 yuan/ton, 13800-14000 yuan/ton

In South China, 14600-14800 yuan/ton, 13800-14000 yuan/ton

Raw material pure benzene: the price of domestic pure benzene market fluctuates mainly. East China spot traded at 6970-7150 yuan/ton, and Shandong market traded at 6850-6950 yuan/ton.

Aniline: The business community monitored that the price of domestic aniline market fell sharply, with the price of 13575 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 10782 yuan/ton at the weekend, a drop of 20.57% in the cycle.

The downstream consumption capacity is weak, and the overall supply of goods is still abundant. Business agency MDI analysts expect that the domestic MDI market will be mainly on the sidelines.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, copper prices rose slightly this week. By the end of this week, spot copper had offered 68605 yuan/ton, up 3.27% from 66433.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, down 3.03% year on year.

Copper weekly fluctuation chart

According to the weekly ups and downs chart of the business community, in the past three months, the price of copper has risen by 6% and fallen by 5%, even by 1. Recently, the copper price has risen slightly.

Macro: the consumer price (cpi) of the United States rose less than expected last month. The official inflation rate fell to 7.7%, lower than 8.2% in August, and lower than 7.9% expected by economists. Senior officials of the Federal Reserve support slowing the pace of interest rate increase. A lower peak in US interest rates will help metals as higher interest rates restrain economic activity and boost the US dollar. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, in October, the demand of some industries increased, and the national PPI rose slightly month on month. However, affected by the high comparison base in the same period last year, it turned from rising to falling year on year.

Supply side: supply, supply of copper concentrate is loose, and TC continues to rise. The new production capacity was put into operation, but the delivery rate of supply pressure was not as fast as expected due to disturbances such as maintenance and equipment transformation. The market inventory is still at a low level, which still supports the price.

Demand side: Affected by the soaring copper price, the downstream is afraid of high prices, and the terminal procurement is weak. In addition, it is expected that the import arrival will soon increase, leading to a weaker price comparison. The consumption of scrap copper rods is also weak, reflecting the continuous weakening of terminal demand. On the whole, North China and South China are affected by the epidemic situation and the commencement of construction is reduced. In addition, the winter in the north has increased the off-season factors. The consumer end is increasingly unable to support the price rise, and the contradiction between supply and demand is increasing.

Inventory: On November 10, copper in the previous period rose 5779 tons to 25006 tons from the beginning of the week. LME copper inventory fell 4525 tons to 80025 tons, down 5.1% from the beginning of the week.

To sum up, the current macro pressure is slowing down, with strong support from the supply and demand side. After breaking through the previous shock range, the copper price is likely to continue to rise in the short term, with the pressure at 70700 yuan/ton.