In May, the domestic MTBE market was all the way up, with obvious rise. According to the data of the business agency, the MTBE price at the beginning of the month was 7200 yuan / ton, and the MTBE market price at the end of the month was 7912 yuan / ton. The price increased by 9.90% in the month and 34.49% year-on-year.

Trend chart of average price of domestic MTBE producers in Shandong in May 2022:

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in April 2022, there were 10 kinds of commodities in the energy sector that rose month on month in the list of bulk commodity prices, including 4 kinds of commodities that rose by more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The commodities with the top three increases were coke (11.98%), coking coal (10.15%) and WTI crude oil (5.07%). There are 5 commodities with a month on month decrease, and 1 commodity with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were methanol (-10.59%), naphtha (-3.67%) and MTBE (-2.37%). This month, the average increase or decrease was 1.38%.

Comparison chart of MTBE price trend of business club from 2018 to 2022:

Monthly K column chart of MTBE domestic production price of business agency:

Weekly K column chart of MTBE domestic production price of business agency:

At the beginning of the month, in the first half of the week, because the price rose to a high level, encountered downstream resistance, the demand weakened, and the prices of other gasoline raw materials were low, MTBE merchants’ sales were blocked, so they had no choice but to adjust one after another, with a drop of about 200-400 yuan / ton. As the price fell to a low level, downstream businesses were willing to replenish at bargain prices. In addition, it coincided with the sharp rise in international oil prices and the upward trend in gasoline prices. MTBE businesses were very bullish, and the prices followed.

In the first ten days of the month, the international oil price first rose and then fell, and the market mentality fluctuated with it. However, as the price fell to a low level last week, the downstream demand increased. In addition, due to the recent export of some goods and the maintenance of some devices, the overall spot supply is limited, which gives support to the market supply. With the dual coordination of supply and demand, plus the positive support from the periphery, businesses have a strong willingness to push up.

In late June, from a macro perspective, crude oil was still at a high level, supporting the market mentality. On the other hand, at present, there are still export orders in China, which leads to limited domestic spot resources, the effect of tight prices, and the positive rise of businesses. At the same time, the price of gasoline has risen, and the operating rate has further improved. There is an appropriate increase in the demand for raw materials, which gives a certain support to the market demand.

Comparison chart of crude oil (upstream raw materials) and MTBE price trend of Business Club:

Comparison chart of MTBE and gasoline (downstream products) price trend of business agency:

In terms of external trading, as of the closing on May 27, the closing price of Asian MTBE market increased by 31 dollars / ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at 1217.99-1221.99 dollars / ton. The closing price of MTBE market in Europe increased by USD 26.50/t compared with the previous trading day, and FOB ara closed at USD 1711.99-1712.49/t. The closing price of MTBE market in the United States increased by 42.42 dollars / ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Gulf FOB price closed at 1749.78-1750.14 dollars / ton (492.90-493.00 cents / gallon).

Region, Country, Closing price, Up and down

Asia, FOB Singapore, 1217.99-1221.99 USD / T, USD 31 / ton

Europe, FOB ara, 1711.99-1712.49 USD / T, USD 26.50/t

United States, FOB Bay, 1749.78-1750.14 USD / T, 42.42 USD / ton

 
Crude oil is still at a high level and export orders still exist, giving strong support to the market. At the same time, as the price rose to a high level, the enthusiasm of downstream receiving goods weakened. MTBE analysts of the business agency believe that the domestic MTBE market will be dominated by shock consolidation in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the market price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus rose sharply this month. The average price of yellow phosphorus at the beginning of the month was 36500 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 39500 yuan / ton. The price increased within the month by 8.22%.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of yellow phosphorus rose sharply this month, and the price of yellow phosphorus moved closer to the high end. The operating load of yellow phosphorus enterprises in Yunnan Guizhou region has declined, and the overall market supply has decreased to a certain extent. Near the wet season, there is still no significant improvement in on-site construction. At present, the spot is tight, and most manufacturers have no inventory. Near the end of the month, downstream enterprises are more wait-and-see, mainly digesting the early inventory. The new yellow phosphorus orders were less traded, the manufacturers mainly supported the prices, and the prices of some enterprises were slightly corrected. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of Yunnan yellow phosphorus is about 39000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of Sichuan yellow phosphorus is about 40000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of Guizhou yellow phosphorus is about 39500 yuan / ton.

In terms of phosphate rock, the domestic phosphate rock market experienced several price adjustments in May, and the market focus continued to concentrate upward. The main reason to support the upward trend of phosphate ore market is that at present, the domestic phosphate ore supply continues to be tight. Many large factories mainly use medium and high-end phosphate ore for their own use. Some mining enterprises mainly send orders from core and old customers, and there is basically no surplus goods for export. Most enterprises have suspended their quotation. There are few goods circulating in the field, and the tight supply situation has not been eased. Therefore, the market price has repeatedly risen. As of May 24, the market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in Guizhou is around 880-930 yuan / ton, which needs to be discussed separately. At present, the average grade of domestic phosphate rock in China is relatively low. With years of mining, the average grade of domestic phosphate rock will decline in 2022, and mining is limited. In addition, the price difference between domestic and foreign phosphate rock is large, so some enterprises are reluctant to sell. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, as of March 2022, the domestic phosphate rock output has accumulated 2391.2 tons.

In terms of coke, the fourth round of raising and lowering of the coke market has been implemented. Up to now, it has been reduced by 800 yuan / ton. After the four rounds of lifting and lowering, the current profits of coking enterprises have been damaged, and some loss making enterprises have taken the initiative to reduce production. In the early stage, the sales situation of enterprises is generally good, and the coke inventory is low. In the downstream, the overall performance of the steel market is poor. Therefore, although there is a certain demand for replenishment in the downstream, it is still based on demand. It is expected that the coke market will continue to operate weakly in the near future, and the follow-up will focus on the operating rate of the steel plant and the coke inventory in all links.

On the demand side, the overall focus of the phosphoric acid market moved up in May, with strong cost support, and the increase of enterprise offers varied. The market price of thermal phosphoric acid is about 11000-12800 yuan / ton. The prices of other phosphate products are also gradually rising, and the acceptance of high priced yellow phosphorus has been improved, forming a strong support for the yellow phosphorus market.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

The yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of the business agency believes that the price of yellow phosphorus has risen sharply this month. The upstream phosphate ore is in continuous tension, and the price rises. The downstream phosphoric acid market price is rising, and the prices of other phosphate products are also gradually rising, with strong upstream and downstream support. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will be frozen in the short term.

The price of DBP fluctuated and rose this week

According to the data monitoring of the business club, the DBP price rose in shock this week, and the overall DBP market recovered in shock. As of May 26, the price of DBP was 10566.67 yuan / ton, up 3.26% from 10233.33 yuan / ton on May 16 last week; 1.28% higher than the DBP price of 10433.33 yuan / ton on May 20; Compared with the price of 10050 yuan / ton on May 1 at the beginning of the month, an increase of 5.14%. This week, DBP raw material cost support remained, and plasticizer market rose in shock.

The price of butanol fluctuated and rose this week

According to the price monitoring of the business society, the price of n-butanol fluctuated and rose recently, and the market of n-butanol rebounded and warmed up. On May 26, the price of n-butanol was 10200 yuan / ton, up 3.03% from 9900 yuan / ton on May 16 at the beginning of last week; Compared with 9166.67 yuan / ton on May 1 at the beginning of the month, the increase was 11.27%. Recently, the transaction of n-butanol has warmed up, the price of n-butanol in Shandong rebounded and rose, the cost of DBP rose, and the rising power of DBP increased.

The price of phthalic anhydride rebounded and rose this week

According to the price monitoring of the business community, since the phthalic anhydride market hit the bottom on May 16, the phthalic anhydride price rebounded and rose this week. As of May 26, the phthalic anhydride price was 8175 yuan / ton, up 1.87% from 8025 yuan / ton on May 16 last week; Compared with the phthalic anhydride price of 8137.50 yuan / ton on May 1, the increase was 0.46%. Recently, the price of phthalic anhydride raw material o-xylene has risen sharply, the cost of phthalic anhydride has increased, the price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated, the cost of DBP raw material has increased, the cost support of DBP has increased, the downward pressure of DBP has weakened, and the upward momentum has increased.

Future expectations

DBP data analysts of business agency believe that in terms of raw materials, the price of n-butanol rose in shock, the price of phthalic anhydride stopped falling and warmed up, the price of raw materials rose, the cost of plasticizer DBP rose, and the price of DBP rose in shock. In the future, the demand for DBP is relatively stable. The prices of raw materials n-butanol and phthalic anhydride rose in shock. The cost of DBP rose. The downward pressure on DBP weakened and the upward momentum increased. It is expected that the price of DBP will rise in shock in the future.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of LLDPE (7042) in East China was 8990.00 yuan / ton on May 18 and 8860.00 yuan / ton on May 25, with a decline of 1.45% and 4.53% compared with April 1.

According to the monitoring data of East China News Agency, the average price of 1156 tons / may fell by 25.66% compared with the average price of 1136 tons / may, which fell by 25.67% in January.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) in East China was 9850.00 yuan / ton on May 18 and 9850.00 yuan / ton on May 25. During this period, the price remained stable compared with April 1.

This week, the overall weakness of the domestic polyethylene market decreased, and the three major varieties in East China fell to varying degrees. Among them, the prices of LLDPE and LDPE decreased significantly, and the market price of HDPE remained stable for the time being. With the completion of device maintenance of some manufacturers, the market supply has increased. However, in terms of demand, due to weak terminal demand, downstream factories maintain replenishment on demand, and the market trading atmosphere is general. At present, petrochemical inventory is at a high level. However, the international crude oil price is high, and the cost side has brought some support to the market and restrained some decline.

Recently, Liansu futures market fluctuated and fell, which brought limited support to the spot market. On May 25, the opening price of polyethylene futures 2209 was 8511, the highest price was 8575, the lowest price was 8474, the closing price was 8542, the former settlement price was 8534, the settlement price was 8522, up 8, the trading volume was 366059, the position was 335107, and the daily position was increased by – 9010. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

At present, the international crude oil price is relatively high, and the cost side has brought some support to the market. However, the negative factors in the market are still obvious, the petrochemical inventory is at a high level, the supply is still expected to increase, and the terminal demand is weak. It is expected that the polyethylene spot market may still fall in the short term.

This week, the domestic propane market price is mainly weak, and the market price in Shandong falls first and rises later. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of propane in Shandong market was 6688.25 yuan / ton on May 16 and 6563.25 yuan / ton on May 24. The decline rate in the week was 1.87%, up 51.03% compared with the same period last year.

As of May 24, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Region, May 24th

South China, 6450-6550 yuan / ton

North China, 6500-6600 yuan / ton

Shandong Province, 6400-6700 yuan / ton

Northeast China, 6500-6650 yuan / ton

This week, the overall trend of the domestic propane market was weak. The propane Market in Shandong fell first and then rebounded, with a decline greater than the increase. At present, there are obvious negative factors in the market. Recently, as the weather continues to heat up and the terminal demand is weak, the downstream maintains replenishment on demand, and the overall transaction atmosphere of the market is limited. In the early stage, the manufacturer’s shipment was poor, and the price was dominated by continuous profit making shipment. In the later stage, the rise of international crude oil brought obvious support to the market, and Shandong propane market rebounded, but the range is still limited.

Saudi Aramco announced in May 2022 that both propylene and butane fell. Propane was 850 USD / T, down 90 USD / T from the previous month; Butane is 860 US dollars / ton, down 100 US dollars / ton compared with the previous month.

At present, the upward international crude oil price has brought obvious support to the propane Market, but the lack of terminal demand still brings obvious resistance to the market. The downstream mentality is more cautious, mainly wait-and-see, and the market trading atmosphere is limited. It is expected that the market price of propane or upward space is limited, and the price consolidation is mainly.

According to the monitoring of business society, the natural rubber commodity index on May 22 was 37.81, the same as yesterday, down 62.19% from the highest point of 100.00 in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 38.60% from the lowest point of 27.28 on April 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Figure 2: mainstream price trend of natural rubber since May 2022

According to the monitoring of business agency, during the week from May 16 to 22, the domestic natural rubber (standard I) in China’s East China market fluctuated slightly: the mainstream of the domestic market reported about 12720 yuan / ton on the 16th and 12750 yuan / ton on the 22nd, with a range of 0.24%. Among them, the tight supply of natural rubber is the main factor for the strong price in recent days.

Figure 4: K-bar chart of natural rubber market week in May 2022

Industry analysis: macro aspect: the impact of domestic public health events continues. Shanghai, which is greatly affected, is gradually resuming work and production, and the supply, circulation and sales of raw materials and finished products are gradually restored, especially in the next month; At the same time, the loose real estate policy has a positive stimulus to the improvement of market atmosphere and terminal demand.

Supply side: Thailand production area. Affected by rainy weather, the output of new rubber has remained low recently, especially the rainy weather in the Northeast production area will expand next week, affecting the output growth; In Vietnam, the cutting rate has reached 90%, and there has been a lot of rain in recent weeks, affecting the development of rubber cutting and the output of raw materials. In China’s domestic area, Yunnan has been fully cut, but the rainy weather in Banna continues this week, and the output of raw materials is affected, resulting in the shortage of raw materials in stock. It is reported that the price difference between regions is large. Some processing plants in Hainan take goods back to Yunnan for processing, but the dry rubber profit is thicker, the difference between dairy plants is suspended, and the cross provincial procurement volume is not much. The cutting in Hainan production area has not been started yet, and the delay is better than expected. It is reported that the cutting will be started from early June to early June, and there is too much rain before the cutting, which is conducive to the rapid increase of production.

Demand side: the impact of public health events is weakened, Shanghai and other important circulation areas are gradually returning to work and production, and the resumption of local and surrounding automobile enterprises will drive the rapid growth of raw material consumption and tire demand. Although the early heavy truck distribution and sales data show that all three major demands have weakened significantly, and the slow internal and external demand has led to heavy finished product inventory and great pressure to go to the warehouse of tire enterprises, in the short term, the gradual resumption of work and production in Shanghai is very good for the smooth arrival of imported rubber raw materials, warehousing and delivery of warehouse receipts. As for the commencement of tire enterprises, statistics show that the domestic tire market is mainly weak and stable, and the operating rate of tire enterprises is about 60-70%.

Inventory: according to the data of the exchange, on Friday (May 20), the natural rubber warehouse receipt was 25467 tons, an increase of 690 tons on a weekly basis; The total inventory of the exchange was 269347 tons, with a weekly increase of 2224 tons. No. 20 rubber warehouse receipt was 96002 tons, with a weekly increase of 6793 tons; The total inventory of the exchange was 102393 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 5686 tons. According to the statistical data, the storage of natural rubber in Qingdao increased: cut off from 5 to 16, the sample inventory of 16 natural rubber general trade warehouses in Yudao area was 297400 tons, an increase of 10000 tons or 3.48% over the previous period; The inventory of 17 samples in the free trade zone was 109100 tons, an increase of 10100 tons or 0.09% over the previous period. The total inventory was 406500 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 10100 tons.

In terms of import and export: there are few sources of goods to Hong Kong and few high-cost enterprises to take orders, which leads to the shortage of imported concentrated milk spot, the high price and traders’ covering the plate, which leads to almost transactions in the spot market. At the same time, it leads to the high enthusiasm of concentrated milk factories in China’s domestic production areas and the meager profits of dry rubber factories. According to the latest report of the General Administration of rubber of Cambodia, the country exported 79356 tons of rubber in the first four months of 2022, a year-on-year increase of 3%.

Figure 3: trend chart of mainstream international crude oil prices since May 2022

Macro analysis: on May 20, international crude oil futures rose slightly. The settlement price of the main contract of us WTI crude oil futures was US $110.28/barrel, up US $0.39 or 0.4%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $113.23/barrel, up US $1.02 or 0.9%. Tight supply is expected to boost oil prices against the backdrop of the Fed’s interest rate hike.

Recent industrial hot spots: 1. China Automobile Industry Association disclosed on the 17th that in April 2022, the added value of China’s automobile manufacturing industry decreased by 31.8% year-on-year, and the retail sales of automobiles decreased by more than 30% year-on-year. From January to April, the fixed asset investment in China’s automobile manufacturing industry increased by 10.4% year-on-year. Compared with January to March, the growth rate slowed down by 2 percentage points year-on-year, 3.6 percentage points higher than the national fixed asset investment in the same period.

2. According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of statistics, the output of rubber tire covers in China in April 2022 was 64.707 million, a year-on-year decrease of 21.3%. From January to April, the output of rubber tire casing decreased by 8.4% over the same period of last year to 271023 million.

3. According to the latest data released by the European Association of automobile manufacturers (ACEA), the sales of new passenger cars in the EU fell sharply by 20.6% to 684506 in April due to the continued serious impact of supply chain problems on automobile production. In addition to the new crown pandemic year in 2020, this is the weakest result in April since its record.

4. The latest report released by LMC automotive shows that in April 2022, global light vehicle sales fell by an alarming 25% year-on-year to 5.4 million, and sales in all major markets shrank. Under the influence of the dynamic clearing and epidemic prevention policy, more than 20% of Chinese dealers were suspended due to closure; In the United States, inventories remain tight due to global supply problems. After seasonal adjustment, the annual sales volume decreased to 67 million vehicles / year. The supply of most major markets is still limited. This situation is exacerbated by China’s epidemic prevention and control measures and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which brings downward pressure on global sales activities.

5. The latest April report released by ANRPC predicts that the global natural rubber production is expected to increase by 13.6% to 941000 tons in April; The consumption of natural rubber is expected to increase slightly by 0.3% to 1.21 million tons. The report points out that although the market fundamentals are still conducive to the natural rubber market, the industry is still seriously affected by other external global events during the reference period. The world bank has lowered its forecast for global economic growth in 2022 from 4.1% to 3.2%, which is due to the uncertainty caused by the Russian Ukrainian conflict and China’s blockade, and may slow down the prospect of global economic recovery.

Future forecast: domestic new rubber production is low, the import volume is small, the inventory is low, and the downstream demand recovers slightly; The gradual resumption of work and production in Shanghai is conducive to the arrival, warehousing and delivery of imported rubber raw materials in Hong Kong. From the perspective of supply shortage, the natural rubber market is strong in the short term, and there is a great possibility of shock. In the medium term, it depends on the recovery of downstream demand.

According to the data monitored by the business society, the PP market fluctuated this week, and the spot ex factory price of wire drawing brand rose first and then fell. As of May 20, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8640 yuan / ton, up or down – 1.37% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: upstream, the domestic propylene price was stable at the beginning of the week and fell sharply near the weekend. The raw material cost fluctuated and the support was acceptable. The supply side has increased, the market demand is mainly just demand, and the price is growing and falling rapidly. The overall purchase of downstream enterprises is still more cautious, focusing on maintaining production.

Propylene prices fell, crude oil continued to fluctuate and rise, and PP cost side support was acceptable. In terms of supply, in the early stage, PP enterprises took the initiative to reduce the burden and reduce the pressure, and the benefits of the supply side gradually came out. Last week, the industry load increased, the on-site supply returned to the abundant pattern, and the positive impact of the supply side weakened. Buyers are more resistant to high priced goods, the market trading is light, and the demand side is generally just in need of goods. The impact of domestic health incidents is still ongoing, and logistics and shipment in some areas are still not smooth. The spot market fell due to insufficient demand follow-up.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business society, as of May 20, the spot price of domestic fiber PP fell by a narrow margin. The mainstream offer price of Z30S (fiber) from domestic manufacturers and traders is about 8883.33 yuan / ton. Compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, the rise and fall range is – 0.37%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.38%. The main downstream non-woven enterprises of PP fiber materials maintained a narrow reduction in their operation, and the terminal enterprises took goods to maintain production, and the rigid demand support weakened. The health incident affected shipments in some areas, increased transportation resistance and put pressure on enterprise inventory. The supply side is abundant, and the demand for medical fiber products is cooling. It is expected that the fiber will be subject to shock finishing and operation in the short term.

In terms of meltblown materials, the meltblown PP market fell this week. As of May 20, the average quotation of domestic meltblown material sample enterprises monitored by the business society was about 9900 yuan / ton, up or down by – 3.88% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month. In terms of international health events, the current situation in various countries is still not optimistic. The number of confirmed cases in China has gradually decreased, the epidemic prevention pressure has eased, and the demand for medical meltblown cloth materials has decreased. The supply of meltblown materials in the market is generally sufficient, and the saturation of domestic meltblown materials and cloth enterprises is high. Together with the shipping resistance, the increase of meltblown materials is suppressed. It is expected that the recent market of melt blown PP may maintain weak operation.

Future forecast

PP analysts of business agency believe that the rise of domestic polypropylene market is blocked this week, the overall shock is down, the raw material propylene market is callback, the international crude oil shock is up, and the cost support is OK. The demand of terminal enterprises remains weak and bargain hunting. The business mentality is not strong, and the operation is biased towards price reduction and order taking. The short-term freight market is expected to be narrow, or the weak part will not be ideal.

Polyoxymethylene market price trend chart

Price curve of paraformaldehyde

(picture source: Commodity analysis system of business society)

According to the monitoring of business agency, the average production price of paraformaldehyde in Shandong was 5433 yuan / ton on May 19, and 5500 yuan / ton on May 13, down 1.21%.

On May 16, Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd. had an annual output of 9000 tons of paraformaldehyde. The ex factory quotation of paraformaldehyde (96) including tax was 5500 yuan / ton, the price was the same as that of last week, and the goods sold in the market were general. Shandong aldehyde Industry Chemical Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 30000 tons of paraformaldehyde. The quotation of 96 paraformaldehyde is 5500 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton lower than that last time. Dragged down by the raw material market, the goods in the paraformaldehyde market are OK. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 10000 tons of paraformaldehyde. The ex factory quotation of paraformaldehyde (96) including tax is 5300 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton lower than the last time, which is dragged down by the raw material market.

Methanol market price trend chart

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic methanol producers was 2745 yuan / ton on May 1 and 2677 yuan / ton on May 19, down 2.46%. From May 1 to May 19, the production price of formaldehyde in Shandong fell by 4.12%.

The raw material market is not good, and the business community polyformaldehyde analysts expect that polyformaldehyde may be dominated by weak operation.

In mid May, the domestic dimethyl ether Market showed a trend of stabilizing first and then rising, and the price of Henan market has risen slightly one after another recently. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 4130.00 yuan / ton on May 9 and 4210.00 yuan / ton on May 18, with an increase of 2.43% during the period, an increase of 1.28% compared with April 1.

As of May 18, the domestic market prices of dimethyl ether in various regions are as follows:

Region, Mainstream quotation

Jiangxi Province, 4370 yuan / ton

Hebei region, 4480 yuan / ton

Henan Province, 4210 yuan / ton

Recently, the overall trend of domestic dimethyl ether Market is relatively strong. The factory price of dimethyl ether in Henan market has been raised slightly continuously, and the focus has increased. At present, the rising cost has brought obvious support to the market. The recent rebound in the price of raw methanol market has driven the price of dimethyl ether higher. In addition, liquefied gas, a related product, was positively affected by the rise of international crude oil and the rise of price oscillation, which also brought some benefits to the market. Hebei and Shandong also increased slightly, and the overall trading atmosphere of the market was mild.

On May 18, the methanol market in Hebei rose, and the local mainstream factory rose by 50 yuan to 2600-2650 yuan / ton. The downstream maintained normal delivery, and the atmosphere changed little; The reference price in Tangshan is 2680 yuan / ton. The market in Shanxi continues a strong trend: the mainstream in Jincheng is temporarily stable at 2510 yuan / ton; Linfen mainstream price rose to 2500-2510 yuan / ton.

At present, the price trend of raw material methanol market and related civil liquefied gas market is relatively strong, which brings some support to the market. However, the limited market demand has brought some restraint to the rising market. In the morning, the international crude oil stopped rising and falling, and the support of the liquefied gas market is limited. In the later stage, it may weaken, which may bring some bad news to the dimethyl ether Market. It is expected that the continuous rise of dimethyl ether Market has limited power, and the price will be adjusted in a narrow range in the short term.

Price trend

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price of cryolite in Henan rose steadily this week. On May 13, the average market price in Henan was 7575 yuan / ton, up 0.66% from 7525 yuan / ton at the end of last week and 1.34% month on month.

quotations analysis

During the week, the cryolite market was sorted upward, and the quotation of main enterprises in Henan was increased by 200 yuan / ton. At present, the production cost pressure of cryolite manufacturers is high, the inventory is relatively small, the enterprise quotation is mainly high, the downstream demand is stable, the enterprise shipment is relatively smooth, the operator’s wait-and-see mentality is mainly, and individual cryolite enterprises quote upward according to their own shipment situation. As of May 13, the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Shandong is 8000 yuan / ton, and the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Henan is 7000-8600 yuan / ton, with little change in the range price.

The high level of soda ash in the upstream is strong. As of May 13, the average market price is about 2725 yuan / ton. This week, the soda ash market is stable and small. The trading atmosphere on the site is mild, and the order volume of enterprises is relatively sufficient. The downstream mainly purchases on demand, the manufacturers ship flexibly, and the price trend runs smoothly within the week.

Downstream, the aluminum market fluctuated and decreased this week. On May 13, the aluminum price was about 20111 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.97% over the weekend. In the early stage, affected by public health events, logistics transportation was blocked, enterprise shipment was difficult, weekly delivery volume decreased, aluminum social inventory accumulated, aluminum market fell, social conditions improved in the later stage, market consumption increased, driving aluminum prices to rise slightly.

Future forecast

Domestic cryolite manufacturers still have cost pressure, tight market supply, low enterprise inventory, high cryolite price, stable downstream demand procurement and strong high cryolite market. It is expected that the short-term cryolite trend will continue to operate at a high level, and pay specific attention to the downstream demand.