According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market experienced a volatile decline in October 2025. From October 1st to 31st, the domestic toluene market price fell from 5330 yuan/ton to 5150 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 3.38% during the period.

Early October: After the holiday, the domestic toluene market fluctuated and declined. The ex factory prices of the main refineries in Shandong have been partially lowered, and they are actively shipping. The downstream chemical and oil blending industries have stable demand, and procurement is more focused on essential needs. The prices in the East China market have fallen, and the enthusiasm for downstream market entry is relatively weak. The South China market is affected by the weakening of crude oil, resulting in a weak and volatile trend.
Late period: The domestic toluene market has fluctuated in this cycle, with an overall downward trend. The ex factory prices of the main refineries in Shandong region have slightly decreased, and downstream purchases are more in line with demand. The prices in the East and South China markets have slightly decreased, and the enthusiasm for downstream market entry is weak. Overall, the toluene market is operating steadily but weakly.
On the cost side: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the crude oil market first fell and then rose in this cycle. The crude oil market was affected by negative factors in the first ten days. On the one hand, OPEC+has launched a new round of production increase of 1.65 million barrels per day, but the market is still concerned about the long-term risk of oversupply, and the crude oil market continues to decline; On the other hand, the easing of the situation between Israel and Palestine, coupled with weakened demand from the United States, has dragged down global economic and demand expectations due to US tariffs. In addition, the increase in US crude oil inventories has led to the end of the peak oil season in the United States, and the global economic outlook and oil demand are not optimistic, resulting in a rapid decline in international oil prices. After entering the second half of the year, OPEC+has launched a new round of production increase of 1.65 million barrels per day. The market is still concerned about the long-term risk of oversupply. The situation between Palestine and Israel has eased, and coupled with weakened demand from the United States, the issue of US tariffs has dragged down global economic and demand expectations, leading to a rapid decline in international oil prices; However, in the later stage, with the continuation of sanctions policies against some oil producing countries by Europe and the United States, coupled with reduced concerns about negative pressure caused by US tariffs and trade disputes, the crude oil market trend has risen. As of the 29th, the settlement price of the December WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $60.48 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for the December contract is $64.92 per barrel.
Supply side:
Sinopec’s toluene enterprise is operating normally, with stable production of equipment and many products for personal use, resulting in stable production and sales. As of October 31st, East China Company quoted 5150 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5000-5050 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 5400-5500 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5150 yuan/ton.
Demand side:
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 31, 2025, the execution price of xylene by Sinopec Sales Company was 6700 yuan/ton, and this price was implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other facilities operated stably and sold normally, with a price reduction of 100 yuan/ton compared to September 29. As of October 30th, the closing prices of the para xylene market in Asia were 792-794 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 817-819 US dollars/ton CFR China, a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton from September 28th.

Market forecast: The overall trend of the crude oil market is volatile in the near future, which provides insufficient guidance for the market. From the perspective of supply and demand, the overall market changes have been limited recently, with stable supply. The main refineries have slightly lowered their ex factory prices over the weekend, and the market atmosphere is relatively quiet. The recent performance of the demand side still leans towards rigid demand, with a focus on replenishing inventory as needed. Overall, the news on toluene has been bearish recently, and it is expected that the market trend will remain stable and weak in the short term.