Monthly Archives: December 2023

The decline of lithium carbonate in December remains unchanged, with short-term weak performance

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price decline of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate did not decrease in December. On December 28th, the average domestic mixed price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 94000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23.82% compared to the average price of 123400 yuan/ton on December 1st. On December 28th, the average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 103000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23.13% compared to the average price of 134000 yuan/ton on December 1st.

 

PVA 2088 (PVA BP20)

By observing market changes, it can be seen that the price of lithium carbonate remained in a continuous downward trend in early December, and lithium carbonate futures prices continued to decline for several consecutive days until the 13th when there was a rebound. In terms of supply, with the release of goods by large salt lake factories, the market has a relatively sufficient supply of spot goods. In addition, Zhiyi’s export of lithium carbonate to domestic markets in October has recently arrived in Hong Kong, bringing about an increase in market supply in the short term. Most lithium salt factories in the market still rely on long-term cooperative shipments, and trading enterprises continue to be in a strategy of selling individual orders at low prices.

 

In terms of demand, downstream positive electrode material companies are still in a low mood for purchasing goods, only replenishing inventory sporadically when prices are low. Due to the continuous downward trend in prices, downstream positive electrode material companies are also relatively cautious in their willingness to purchase loose orders. However, battery cell companies are gradually cutting orders and reducing the quantity of positive electrode materials, resulting in a significant reduction in the overall purchasing volume of the positive electrode industry. There are few zero order transactions, and the pace of long-term cooperative delivery is also gradually slowing down. This has led to significant pressure on some salt companies to ship, and poor market expectations for future demand, resulting in a downward trend in the overall market quotation and transaction focus.

 

In late December, the decline in lithium carbonate prices slowed down slightly. In terms of supply, the domestic lithium carbonate market is still dominated by long-term transactions. However, towards the end of the year, some lithium salt companies still have shipping ideas due to inventory pressure, and prices are still being lowered. Some lithium salt companies have a strong attitude of price support. The supply of lithium carbonate is still sufficient, and major lithium salt enterprises maintain stable production. Customs data shows that about 17000 tons of lithium carbonate were imported in November, and the domestic supply of lithium carbonate is still high in the short term.

 

In terms of demand, in late December, there was no increase in orders from positive electrode material companies, and the mentality of reducing raw material inventory before the year is still present. The general strategy of long order procurement is maintained, and their target price for bulk order procurement is relatively low. Under the current price situation, there is little willingness to purchase bulk orders. The reduction of orders for positive electrode materials at the battery cell end needs to be gradually implemented, and it is highly likely that the production of ternary and iron lithium will continue to decline in January. The production of electrolyte is gradually decreasing, so the demand for downstream and terminal products has become weak, which has become the norm.

 

The lithium hydroxide market continued to decline, with a weak trend in the upstream spodumene concentrate market during the month. The price of lithium carbonate weakened, and the cost side continued to decline. The downstream demand for high nickel materials on the demand side was insufficient, and the market shipments were average. Merchants carefully followed up on low prices when receiving goods. The lithium hydroxide market transactions were mainly long-term cooperative orders, and the atmosphere in the spot market was light. Holders stimulated orders at low prices, and the focus of lithium hydroxide negotiations weakened.

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

The downstream price of lithium iron phosphate continues to decline, and on the cost side, the prices of main raw materials lithium salts and iron phosphate continue to decline, leading to a decrease in the production cost of iron lithium materials. On the supply side, iron and lithium production enterprises produce on demand, resulting in serious production cuts and shutdowns; Some iron lithium enterprises still have high inventory and prioritize destocking, but the pace of destocking is relatively slow. The demand for demand side, power side, and energy storage side has decreased, and the finished battery cells are still being taken out of stock, resulting in a significant reduction in the purchase of lithium iron phosphate.

 

In terms of futures, the price of lithium carbonate futures in December can be described as a sharp rise and fall. Lithium carbonate futures have fallen on 17 out of the past 18 trading days, and hit the limit on November 22, November 27, and December 5, respectively. Futures prices have repeatedly hit new lows on the market. On December 7th and 13th, the price of lithium carbonate futures hit the limit up again. On December 28th, the opening price of the LC2407 contract for lithium carbonate futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 105600 yuan/ton, the highest price was 107350 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 106550 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.42%. The trading volume was 153800 lots and the position was 152061 lots.

 

According to lithium carbonate analysts from Business Society, the current spot market for lithium carbonate is still in a state of oversupply. However, after experiencing a significant decline in the early stages, some manufacturers have become increasingly bullish. As the end of the month approaches, the decline in lithium salt prices has slowed down. In addition, the futures market has rebounded, and downstream positive electrode materials have a strong wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that lithium carbonate prices will remain weak in the short term.

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Poor demand leads to a broad decline in yellow phosphorus prices in December

1、 Price trend

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

According to monitoring of commodity data, the price of yellow phosphorus fell significantly in December, and overall, the market price of yellow phosphorus has decreased. On December 1st, the average price of yellow phosphorus was 25729.33 yuan/ton, and on December 27th, it was 22962.67 yuan/ton. The monthly price has decreased by 10.75%.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

The price of yellow phosphorus fell significantly in December, and the overall trading situation in the yellow phosphorus market was light. In the first half of the year, the downstream market was relatively weak and the enthusiasm for purchasing goods was low. Downstream enterprises continued to be cautious in their procurement and made purchases at lower prices. As a result, the price of yellow phosphorus in the market gradually decreased. In the middle of the month, yellow phosphorus enterprises are cautious in their quotations, issuing more preliminary orders and not quoting external prices for new orders. The price of yellow phosphorus in the market is relatively chaotic, with both high-end and low-end prices coexisting. In the latter half of the year, the market operating rate has decreased, and some yellow phosphorus enterprises have suspended external quotations. However, downstream demand is poor, prices are lowered for procurement, and traders and downstream buyers are less proactive in purchasing goods. The center of gravity of the on-site market continues to decline. As of now, the market quotation in Sichuan region is mostly around 23000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

 

In terms of phosphate ore, according to data monitoring by Business Society, as of December 27, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China was around 1034 yuan/ton. Compared with December 1, 2023 (reference price of phosphate ore is 1024 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.90%. At present, the trading atmosphere inside the phosphate ore field is mild, and the supply on site is still tight. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement. As the end of the year approaches, some mining companies are operating at a low level. The phosphate ore data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the overall domestic phosphate ore market situation will remain stable, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the impact of factors such as demand and downstream shipments.

 

PVA 2699

In terms of coke, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the market price of coke increased in December 2023. The average price of coke on December 1st was 2328.33 yuan/ton, and on December 27th it was 2430 yuan/ton. The monthly price increased by 4.37%. In December, the atmosphere in the coke market was relatively strong, and the gaming mentality of coke steel remained strong. On the supply side, the price of coking coal has declined this week, leading to a decrease in the cost of entering the furnace for coking enterprises. Some enterprises have increased production, and the comprehensive operating rate has slightly rebounded compared to last week. With the improvement of transportation conditions in various regions, the shipment of coke has improved, and the inventory in coking enterprises has significantly declined. The mentality of coking enterprises is still acceptable. In terms of demand, the enthusiasm for finished products is low during the off-season, and some steel mills have maintenance plans. The overall operating rate has declined, and coke needs to be replenished according to demand. Hard demand support still exists. Under the supply and demand game mentality in the future, it is expected that the coke market will maintain a relatively stable operation in the short term.

 

In terms of phosphoric acid, according to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the reference price of phosphoric acid on December 1st was 7000 yuan/ton, and the average price on December 27th was 6600 yuan/ton. The price for the month decreased by 5.71%. Business Society’s phosphoric acid analyst believes that the recent trend of the phosphoric acid market has been downward. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus continues to decline, with insufficient cost support. The terminal demand is weak, and downstream procurement is essential. The market is mainly bearish. Under the influence of bearish factors, it is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market prices will be mainly weak.

 

3、 Future Market Forecast

The yellow phosphorus analyst from the Chemical Branch of Shengyishe believes that the market price of yellow phosphorus fell significantly in December. At present, the market trading situation is light and the demand is not good. Downstream low-priced procurement, business owners are more cautious and cautious in purchasing. Overall, it is expected that the market price of yellow phosphorus will remain stable and operate in the short term, with actual transactions being discussed on a single basis.

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The price of imported potassium chloride remained stable this week (12.18-12.24)

1、 Price trend

 

PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market for imported potassium chloride remained stable this week, with a price of 3080.00 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 20.77%. On December 25th, the potassium chloride (imported) commodity index was 97.78, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 44.00% from the highest point in the cycle of 174.60 points (2022-06-21), and an increase of 67.86% from the lowest point of 58.25 points on August 6th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2012-03-01 present)

 

2、 Market analysis

 

The prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride distributors have remained stable this week. The arrival price of 60% white potassium in Qinghai is around 2860-2900 yuan/ton, and the self raised price of 62% white potassium at the port is around 2880-2900 yuan/ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong particles at the port is around 2950-3050 yuan/ton. Border trade accounts for 62% of Russian white potassium at around 2750-2800 yuan/ton.

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

From the downstream market of potassium chloride, the price of potassium carbonate remained stable this week at 7530.00 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year decrease of 17.25% over the weekend. This week, the market price of potassium nitrate remained stable at 5450.00 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.02% over the weekend. Overall, the downstream market for potassium chloride is consolidating at a low level, and downstream customers have weakened their demand for potassium chloride.

 

3、 Future Market Forecast

 

In late December, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate and fall narrowly, with consolidation being the main trend. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge are temporarily stable. The downstream market of potassium chloride is consolidating at a low level, with weakened downstream demand and a focus on essential procurement. The circulation of potassium chloride is tight, and the supply of goods at the port has slightly increased. Business Society’s potassium chloride analyst believes that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly decline in the short term.

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Poor market momentum, weak ABS market

Price trend

 

PVA 2088 (PVA BP20)

Recently, the domestic ABS market has continued to be weak, with spot prices of various brands fluctuating. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 25th, the average price of ABS sample products was 10662.5 yuan/ton, with a decrease of -4.26% from the average price level at the beginning of the month.

 

Cause analysis

 

In terms of supply: In the early stage, the domestic ABS industry had a high load, but recently, due to supply pressure, some enterprises have seen a decrease in load. But the decline in average operating rate is narrow, and the current industry load is still above 73%. The production of the enterprise is relatively stable, and the inventory position has decreased due to some new contracts. The improvement of the company’s loss situation is limited, and the supply pressure is relatively high. The supply side’s drag on the spot market continues.

 

In terms of raw materials, the recent trend of ABS upstream three materials is still good, with the acrylonitrile market basically stabilizing. The price of raw materials remains stable with minor fluctuations, and the cost support for acrylonitrile is average; The main downstream construction is still stable, and the load of the acrylonitrile unit is horizontal. The on-site quotation is running smoothly.

 

After the recent decline in the domestic butadiene market, it has been consolidating and fluctuating. As the price of butadiene drops to a relatively low level, some downstream orders are buying on dips, and the overall market focus has shifted upwards. It is expected that the butadiene market will tend to be strong in the short term, with consolidation being the main trend.

 

From the figure below, it can be seen that the recent price increase in the styrene market has resulted in a sideways trend. The current international shipping capacity is declining, and due to its impact, various bulk commodities upstream of styrene are strengthening, with increased cost support. In addition, due to the depletion of on-site supply in the early stage, the current spot situation is tight, and the downstream market is still acceptable. The merchant’s offer is firm.

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

In terms of demand: In recent times, downstream factories, including the home appliance industry, have shown a sustained lack of enthusiasm for stocking up on ABS’s main terminals. The main logic revolves around digesting existing inventory. Enterprises tend to maintain production in their procurement operations, making it difficult to increase demand. Mid stream traders have a heavy wait-and-see attitude and low willingness to purchase goods, resulting in weak demand and dragging down the spot market.

 

Future Market Forecast

 

Last week, the overall performance of the upstream three materials of ABS was still good, and the support for the cost side of ABS rebounded. The petrochemical plant has experienced a narrow decline in production, with limited improvement in supply pressure. The demand side consumption is poor, and merchants have weak confidence in the future market. The easing of the main contradiction between supply and demand in the market is not obvious, and the ABS market may still have downward momentum. It is recommended to closely monitor the adjustment of supply side production capacity.

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The ethanol market is weak

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from December 15th to 22nd, the domestic ethanol price remained at 6800 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 0.37% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.53%. At present, the supply and demand of the domestic ethanol market are weak and horizontal, with some regions experiencing recovery of equipment and average demand. In the short term, the domestic ethanol market is mainly weak and consolidating.

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

On the cost side, as we enter mid December, the market volume of corn in the production areas continues to increase, and the weak corn prices have led to an increase in the intention of grain trading entities to liquidate their exports. In addition, the new season of corn production has once again increased, and the domestic corn market supply has become more relaxed. Ports and deep processing corn inventories are relatively sufficient. Downstream trading entities have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and feed demand continues to be weak. Under the pressure of strong market supply and weak demand, The domestic corn market prices continue to be weak. The cost side of ethanol is influenced by bearish factors.

 

On the supply side, there is a significant difference in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions, with 38.54% operating in East China and 91.04% operating in Northeast China; The operating rate in South China and Southwest China is 19.65%; Short term domestic ethanol production and stable food supply in Northeast China. There is sufficient ethanol supply in the East China region. Coal based ethanol supply is stable. The supply side of ethanol is affected by bearish factors.

 

PVA 2699

On the demand side, most ethyl acetate factories maintain normal production status. The ethyl acetate project in Anhui region is awaiting production. Baijiu just needs to be purchased. The short-term demand for ethanol is mixed.

 

In the future market forecast, the cost is bearish, and the transportation and delivery situation between regions in terms of supply and demand are greatly affected by weather factors. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the short-term domestic ethanol market situation may be dominated by weak consolidation.

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In 2023, hydrogen peroxide staged a roller coaster market trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, in 2023, the hydrogen peroxide market fluctuated greatly, experiencing three rounds of roller coaster market, with the market rising and falling. The highest point of the roller coaster market was in September, and it reached its highest point on September 20th, with the highest price reaching 2200 yuan/ton, an increase of over 200% compared to early January. The lowest price is in January, with a minimum price of 720 yuan/ton.

 

Bacillus thuringiensis

The first round of roller coaster market: From January to April, in the first quarter, the hydrogen peroxide market has been oscillating and rising, with an increase of over 20%. The hydrogen peroxide market began to plummet in April, with an overall decline of over 15%.

 

After New Year’s Day, the Spring Festival is approaching, and the hydrogen peroxide terminal industry has gradually started stocking up. In addition, some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have shut down for maintenance, leading to tight supply and multiple positive factors supporting the hydrogen peroxide market. The hydrogen peroxide market has bottomed out and rebounded, ushering in an upward trend. Since March, the demand for the terminal paper printing industry has increased, and the quantity of hydrogen peroxide purchased is still acceptable. The market continues to rise.

 

Yuan/ton, an increase of over 200% compared to early January. The lowest price is in January, with a minimum price of 720 yuan/ton.

 

Starting from April, the demand for terminal paper printing industry has weakened, and the quantity of purchased hydrogen peroxide has decreased. The transaction volume in the hydrogen peroxide market is average. In addition, some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have reopened their equipment, resulting in an increase in hydrogen peroxide supply and a continuous decline in prices, with a monthly decline of 15.59%.

 

The second round of roller coaster market: From May to June, in the first half of May, the hydrogen peroxide market continued to rise, with an increase of over 35%. Starting from the second half of the month, the hydrogen peroxide market started to plummet from a high platform, with a fluctuating downward trend and an overall decline of over 21%.

 

During the May Day holiday, an accident occurred in the hydrogen peroxide plant of Luxi Chemical, and the hydrogen peroxide plant of Jiantao in Hengyang, Hunan was shut down, resulting in a tense supply of hydrogen peroxide in the market. After the holiday, hydrogen peroxide manufacturers saw a significant increase in their quotations, rising by half a month or 35.14%.

 

Starting from the second half of May, the bullish factors were digested, and the demand for hydrogen peroxide in the market weakened, leading to a decline in the hydrogen peroxide market. Entering June, terminal demand is weak, supply is loose, hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have weak confidence in price support, and the overall performance of hydrogen peroxide is still weak. From May 16th to June, the overall hydrogen peroxide market fell by 21.67%.

 

The third round of roller coaster market: From July to December, the overall hydrogen peroxide market fluctuated and rose in the third quarter, with the increase continuously expanding in September. Throughout the third quarter, the hydrogen peroxide market rose by over 171%. After the National Day holiday, hydrogen peroxide opened a downward channel, and the price continuously bottomed out, dropping to the end of the year, with an overall decline of over 60%. Starting from July, domestic hydrogen peroxide faucet enterprises have not yet started shutdown, market supply is tight, terminal procurement demand has increased, and the hydrogen peroxide market has continued to rise sharply, rising until the end of September. The highest price of hydrogen peroxide has risen to 2200 yuan/ton, and throughout the third quarter, the hydrogen peroxide market has risen by more than 171%.

 

Chitosan oligosaccharide

After the National Day holiday, the stock market in the terminal printing and papermaking industry came to an end, and demand fell. In addition, the market acceptance of high priced hydrogen peroxide decreased, and the price of hydrogen peroxide dropped significantly. It continued to decline until the end of the year, with the average market price dropping to 830 yuan/ton, a drop of over 60%.

 

How will the hydrogen peroxide market be interpreted in 2024?

Supply side: In 2023, the hydrogen peroxide production capacity has exceeded 26 million tons, and some enterprises have started production by the end of the year. Among them, Hubei Sanning Chemical is expected to build a 560000 ton/year hydrogen peroxide (50%) device by the end of the year, Sinopec Baling Petrochemical’s 300000 ton/year hydrogen peroxide device is expected to be put into operation by the end of the year, and Yaxing Chemical’s hydrogen peroxide device has been completed and put into trial operation. Due to the construction of the new device, the production capacity is still in the climbing stage. By 2024, these new production capacities will all be produced, and hydrogen peroxide production will also increase significantly. The situation of oversupply is still present.

 

Demand side: In 2023, the paper market will weaken, while the performance of the caprolactam market is still good. The overall boosting effect of the printing and paper industry on the hydrogen peroxide market is limited. By 2024, the demand for hydrogen peroxide in the printing and paper industries has a certain periodicity, and it is difficult to achieve a significant overall increase. The chemical caprolactam also has limited support for the hydrogen peroxide market. From the demand side, it is difficult to see a significant increase in the hydrogen peroxide market in 2024.

 

Business Society Chemical Analyst believes that the sharp rise in hydrogen peroxide market in 2023 is mainly due to supply side shutdown maintenance and some large factories experiencing malfunctions. In 2024, there is still pressure on the supply side, and there are no favorable factors on the demand side. The hydrogen peroxide market may find it difficult to replicate the highest price in 2023, and the overall weak operation is the main trend.

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The domestic bisphenol A market fluctuated and declined in December

In December, the domestic bisphenol A market mainly experienced a decline. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream market price of bisphenol A was reported at 10137 yuan/ton on December 1st, and 9625 yuan/ton on December 18th, a decrease of 5.06%. The main reason for the continuous decline of bisphenol A in this round is that there are many device restarts; The second is the production of new devices, with sufficient supply; Thirdly, demand remains sluggish. Specifically:

 

PVA 2699

Region/ Price on December 1st/ Price on December 18th/ Decline

East China region/ 10200./9650./550

Shandong region/ 10100./9550./550

 

The supply side is loose in December. There were many maintenance and unplanned parking devices in November, but they gradually resumed in December. There are many new devices added in December, and the market expects an increase in supply. The supply side is loose. Recently, delivery contracts for bisphenol A factories have been the main focus, and spot trading in the market has been flat. As of now, the negotiated price for bisphenol A in the market has reached 9600-9700 yuan/ton.

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

From a cost perspective, the dual raw materials are currently fluctuating at a low level after a decline in the early stage, with fluctuations ranging from 150 to 250 yuan/ton in December, with relatively small fluctuations. The negotiated price of phenol in the East China region is between 7750 to 7850 yuan/ton, while the mainstream negotiated price of acetone in the East China region is 6800 yuan/ton. The average cost of bisphenol A fluctuates between 10000 to 10500 yuan/ton. Currently, the theoretical value of the bisphenol A factory is in a loss making state, It is expected that the cost range of bisphenol A will fluctuate in late December.

 

The demand for the two downstream products is weak, with insufficient transactions and weak market volatility. The downstream epoxy resin market is weak, and the overall operating rate is less than 50%. Enterprises are mainly bearish about the future market. The East China liquid epoxy resin market offers 13000-13400 yuan/ton of purified water for delivery, and the Mount Huangshan solid epoxy resin market negotiation price is 13000-13400 yuan/ton for cash delivery. The downstream PC market is weak and volatile, with mainstream negotiations for injection grade high-end materials in East China ranging from 16000-17000 yuan/ton. In terms of equipment, Zhejiang Petrochemical’s PC Phase I unit is planned to restart, with no significant fluctuations and an operating rate of less than 50%.

 

As the end of the year approaches, the industry is sluggish and volatile, and there is a lack of positive market news. Currently, bisphenol A is facing an increase in supply and the gradual release of production capacity. Traders have a weak mentality, and it is expected that bisphenol A will continue to hit the bottom in the short term. If the cost side is supported, bisphenol A may remain low and hover. Considering the lack of strength in the two downstream markets, it is highly likely that bisphenol A will fluctuate at a low level.

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Cost support: DBP prices fluctuate and rise this week

The price of plasticizer DBP fluctuated and increased this week

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 18th, the DBP price was 9725 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.78% from the DBP price of 9650 yuan/ton on December 8th; The DBP price has increased by 1.30% compared to December 11th at 9600 yuan/ton. The raw material n-butanol fluctuates and rises, the price of isooctanol fluctuates and rises, DBP costs rise, DBP enterprises have a high operating rate, downstream procurement enthusiasm is high, and DBP prices fluctuate and rise.

 

The price of n-butanol fluctuated and rose this week

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 18th, the price of n-butanol was 8700 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.95% compared to December 11th, when the price of n-butanol was 8533.33 yuan/ton. The equipment of n-butanol enterprises has resumed operation, and the supply of n-butanol has increased. In addition, transportation has resumed, and the supply of n-butanol is sufficient. Plasticizer enterprises are operating at a high level, and downstream markets are actively stocking up. The price of n-butanol has fluctuated and risen, and cost support still exists.

 

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose this week

 

PVA 2088 (PVA BP20)

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 18th, the quotation for isooctanol was 12750 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.39% from the quotation of 12700 yuan/ton on December 11th. In early December, the operating rate of downstream plasticizer DBP increased at a high level, and major plasticizer factories actively purchased. The demand for rigid isooctanol increased, and isooctanol products surged; As the price of isooctanol rises, plasticizer manufacturers experience a decrease in profits and losses, the operating load of plasticizers decreases, the high price support for isooctanol is insufficient, the demand for isooctanol decreases, and the high price of isooctanol falls back. However, the overall production of plasticizer DBP enterprises remains at a high level, and the price of isooctanol fluctuates and consolidates at a high level.

 

Future expectations

 

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that in terms of supply and demand, plasticizer DBP enterprises have seen a high increase in production, while exports have continued to grow steadily, resulting in a strong supply-demand relationship for plasticizer DBP. In terms of raw materials, the prices of n-butanol and isooctanol have stabilized at high levels, and the rise in DBP raw material costs has supported DBP’s strong consolidation. In the future, DBP supply and demand are both strong, and raw materials such as n-butanol and isooctanol are stable and relatively strong. The cost support for plasticizers still exists, and it is expected that DBP prices will fluctuate and consolidate at high levels in the future.

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The price of aniline has stabilized this week (December 11, 2023- December 15, 2023)

1、 Price trend

 

PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of aniline has stabilized this week. On December 11th, the market price of aniline was 10600 yuan/ton, and on December 15th, it was 10600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.56% from last week and 2.52% from the same period last year.

 

2、 Analysis and Review

 

Pure benzene: Yesterday, crude oil rebounded, downstream styrene market strengthened, and pure benzene negotiations rose. Transactions were mainly in distant months and month differences, with weak spot transactions. The trading atmosphere in the Shandong market is relatively light, but there are also traders who normally purchase and deliver orders within the week, resulting in overall poor transactions. The rebound of crude oil is expected to support the volatile operation of East China pure benzene in the morning. On Friday (December 15th), the price of pure benzene was 6823 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.74% from last week and 3.69% from the same period last year.

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Nitric acid: The domestic price of nitric acid has slightly decreased and increased this week. The price was 2300 yuan/ton on December 11th and 2250 yuan/ton on December 15th, a decrease of 2.84% from last week and 8.16% from the same period last year.

 

3、 Future expectations

 

The aniline factory has good orders, with heavy snowfall in the north and limited road transportation. It is expected that the aniline market will stabilize and wait for the latest news guidance.

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

Weak downturn in the lithium iron phosphate market (12.4-12.11)

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Shengyishe, as of December 11th, the average price of high-quality power grade lithium iron phosphate is 50800 yuan/ton. The price of lithium iron phosphate is mainly weak, with continuous decline in the upstream and insufficient demand in the downstream. The upward trend of lithium iron phosphate is not significant, with a price drop of 1.93% compared to the same period last week and a price drop of 16.99% compared to the same period last month.

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

Recently, the price of lithium iron phosphate has experienced a wide decline, with prices continuing to operate at a low level, dropping 1.93% in a week. Downstream demand is insufficient, inventory is running at a high level, manufacturers are operating under pressure, and overall market consumption is slow. With a pessimistic attitude, downstream restocking is mainly based on demand, mainly supplying contract customers, and overcapacity, the lithium battery market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere.

 

PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)

The upstream lithium carbonate price has remained low, and in December, the price of lithium carbonate has been in a continuous downward trend. Lithium carbonate futures prices have also fallen deeply for several consecutive days, with the highest daily decline reaching 7%. In terms of supply, after the large salt lake factory released goods last week, the market has a relatively sufficient supply of spot goods. In addition, Zhili’s exports to domestic lithium carbonate in October have recently arrived in Hong Kong one after another. Although most of this lithium carbonate is reserved for long-term orders, it will still bring an increase in market supply in the short term.

 

The analyst of Shengyishe Lithium Iron Phosphate believes that in the short term, lithium iron phosphate will maintain a weak operation, and the upward trend is not significant.

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