Price Trend Review
In June, the dichloromethane (DCM) market showed a trend of “first falling, then stabilizing, and then bottoming out”, with an overall downward shift in focus, mainly divided into three stages:
The decline at the beginning of the month after the festival (6.1-6.10): after the Dragon Boat Festival, the enthusiasm of the downstream market and traders in Shandong to receive orders slowed down. Although some devices were reduced in load and overhauled, the market supply performance was loose, and the shipment of the holders was dominated. The market transaction price fell under pressure, with a decline of 7.78%.
Mid to low rebound (6.11-6.20): With the weakening of prices, the market’s demand for replenishment at low prices increased, and trading activity increased. On the 11th, the market rebounded slightly, but the demand increment was limited. Under the supply-demand game, the market remained stagnant and weak.
At the end of the month, there was another decline (6.21-6.30): Inventory pressure appeared, and some companies slightly reduced prices to reduce inventory. On the 27th, prices fell to the lowest point of the month, a decrease of 9.72%. On the 30th, supported by the rise in raw materials (methanol, liquid chlorine), companies’ willingness to raise prices increased, and prices rebounded slightly. According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of June 30th, the average price of dichloromethane dispersed water in Shandong Province was 2110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.86% during the month and a year-on-year decrease of 14.23%.
analysis of influencing factors
Supply side: Stable but rising, inventory pressure is evident
Device dynamics: During the month, some enterprises reduced their negative load and stabilized prices, and the overall industry production rebounded to 80% -85%, but the supply is still relatively sufficient.
Inventory accumulation: Downstream procurement is cautious, and some manufacturers are facing increasing inventory pressure. They have a strong willingness to reduce prices and reduce inventory, which is dragging down market prices.
Cost side: Methanol surges, liquid chlorine oscillates and rises
Methanol: Affected by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, Iran’s methanol facilities have been extensively shut down, and the expected arrival at ports has decreased, leading to a strong rise in methanol prices. As of June 30th, the spot price of methanol in Shengyi Society was reported at 2793 yuan/ton, an increase of 24.14% for the month, with increased cost support, but weak demand limited price transmission.
Liquid chlorine: The tight supply and fluctuating prices in Shandong region have provided some support for the cost of dichloromethane.
Demand side: Mainly for essential procurement, refrigerant performance is impressive
June is the off-season for the chemical industry, and some downstream industries (coatings, adhesives) are affected by high temperatures, rainy seasons, and environmental inspections, resulting in a decrease in operating rates and weak demand. The rainy weather in East and South China has suppressed demand in the construction industry, and it is expected to improve slightly in July.
Strong demand for refrigerant (R32): R32 prices continue to rise, with a domestic average price exceeding 50000 yuan/ton (+42% year-on-year), mainly supported by exports (40%), household air conditioning (40%), and maintenance markets (20%). If demand continues to grow in the second half of the year, refrigerant companies may apply to increase R32 quotas in August, which may drive a rebound in demand for dichloromethane.
Future prospects
June market: loose supply and demand, downward pressure on prices, but slightly rebounded at the end of the month due to cost support. Expectation for July: Refrigerant demand may provide support, but overall it is still mainly fluctuating at a low level, with attention paid to changes in methanol prices and inventory.