According to the data monitoring of business news agency, as of January 12, the average reference price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in mainstream areas in China was around 403 yuan / ton, which was 7 yuan / ton higher than that on January 1 (396 yuan / ton), and 10 yuan / ton higher than that on December 1, 2020 (393 yuan / ton), which was 2.54%.

Close to the Spring Festival, the domestic phosphorus ore market is mainly stable

In 2021, China’s phosphorus ore market experienced a slight upward trend after the new year’s Day Festival and then kept stable operation. At present, as the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream operation rate gradually weakens, and just needs to purchase. Recently, China’s phosphorus ore market has maintained a stable finishing operation, with a general trading atmosphere in the field, and the mines mainly deal with orders from old customers. As of January 12, the quotation of 30% ammonium phosphate ore boat board in Hubei Province is 380 -In Guizhou area, the quotation of 30% grade phosphate ore is about 320-360 yuan / ton, and the price has been stable for nearly a week; the quotation of 28% grade phosphate ore is about 280-320 yuan / ton, and the transaction price is slightly lower.

Downstream, yellow phosphorus, the market early this week to wait-and-see finishing, individual yellow phosphorus enterprises still intend to raise prices, market quotation firm, the current Yunnan Net phosphorus factory acceptance transaction reference 16500 yuan / ton. In terms of phosphoric acid, the market price of phosphoric acid is supported by the rise of raw materials, and the market price is slightly increased. At present, it is mostly in consolidation and operation.

New single not much phosphorus ore future stable operation

At present, the domestic phosphorus ore market as a whole is mostly stable, with the downstream procurement being cautious. The tide of stock preparation before the festival has not appeared, and there are not many new orders. It is heard that some mines will reduce the operating rate in the near future and keep the mass production conservative. Therefore, the phosphorus ore analysts of the business community believe that the phosphorus ore market will be mainly stable in the near future.

1、 Price trend

This week, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose from 1833.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1836.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 0.18%, and a year-on-year increase of 9.98%. Overall, the urea market rose this week, with the urea commodity index at 85.43 on January 8.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream factory price of urea in Shandong rose this week. Yangmei plain urea quoted 1850 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 1820 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; minghuahua urea quoted 1840 yuan / ton this weekend, which is 10 yuan / ton higher than the beginning of the week.

In agriculture, affected by the epidemic situation, fertilizer preparation in some areas was appropriately advanced. In terms of industry, the demand of plate and compound fertilizer plants has been followed up appropriately, and the purchasing enthusiasm of businesses has improved. On the supply side, some units have been shut down for maintenance recently, and the overall start-up has declined. The market supply has remained low.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industry chain: the overall price of upstream urea products fell slightly this week: the price of liquefied natural gas was temporarily stable at 5366.67 yuan / ton, up 57.69% compared with the same period last year; the price of liquid ammonia fell this week, from 3306.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3273.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 1.01%, up 13.26% compared with the same period last year. This week, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea was temporarily stable, at 7266.67 yuan / ton. Overall, urea cost support is strong this week.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle of January, the urea market in Shandong may fluctuate slightly. Urea analysts of business society believe that the current agricultural demand is better, industrial demand has improved, urea supply is tight, and it is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate slightly.

2020 is an extraordinary year. After the festival, all parts of the country stopped production and logistics transportation was blocked. Phenol market also experienced an unusual period in this year. In the first half of the year, it showed a deep “V” trend. Although it hit a new low in the first half of the year, it recovered the decline at the end, and in June, it reached the highest level of the year. In the second half of the year, we went through hardships and difficulties, but failed to break through the strange circle. According to the monitoring data of the business community, phenol (national market) was offered at 7487 yuan / ton on January 1, 2020, and then it was just around the spring festival that the market smoothly transited. After the festival, the domestic epidemic uncertainty continued to increase, and the market entered a rapid downward trend. Like most products in the industrial chain, phenol (national market) was offered at 4900 yuan / ton on April 3, Among them, the East China market is as low as 4500 yuan / ton (the lowest in ten years according to the monitoring of business community). In the second quarter, the market continued to release favorable information, and the market rebounded quickly. As of June 10, phenol (national market) was offered at 7925 yuan / ton, the highest in the year. In the second half of the year, the phenol market went through a very difficult period. First of all, it experienced a long downturn. In November, it was supported by downstream bisphenol A, which improved slightly. However, compared with other products coming out of the “high light moment” in the industrial chain, phenol made only a few upward breakthroughs in the fourth quarter, and finally continued to cross the year in a depressed state.

Trend chart of average price of phenol in national market in 2020

Monthly K-bar chart of ex factory price of phenol plants in East China in 2020

In the first quarter, after a smooth new year, the market entered a rapid downward channel in March. At the beginning of the year, the domestic phenol market was almost calm. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the daily price was 7325 yuan / ton on January 1 and 7425 yuan / ton on February 18, with a maximum amplitude of 4% in a month and a half. Then in late February, the market calm was finally broken. The business agency investigated more than 20 enterprises in the phenol ketone industry chain in the whole country, most of which were in operation, but the operation rate dropped by 30% compared with that before the festival %In the long run, there are few transactions in the market, and the inventory of enterprises is high. With the gradual resumption of work in the market, the problem of logistics and transportation is gradually alleviated. There are still difficulties in the short-term substantial increase of demand. The mentality is insufficient, low prices are frequent, and the focus of negotiation is constantly falling. As of February 28, the average offer of phenol Market in China was 7062 yuan / ton, which was 7.38% lower than that in mid February. In March, phenol market officially opened a sharp drop trend. The crude oil market experienced a rare one-day plunge of 30%. Under the impact of public events and crude oil plunge, the whole industry chain was seriously frustrated, and petrochemical phenol also showed a cliff like decline. According to the monitoring of the business community, the phenol market fell continuously in March, with a cumulative decline of more than 30%. By the end of the Qingming Festival, the offer of the East China market had dropped to 4500 yuan / ton.

In the second quarter, the sharp rise of crude oil led the phenol Market to stop falling and recover from the trough. First, affected by the expected production reduction agreement between Saudi Arabia and Russia, WTI and Brent surged by 25% in a single day. After the Qingming Festival, the listing price of pure benzene rose from 2250-2850 yuan / ton (average price 2450 yuan / ton) in the fifth day to 2850-3800 yuan / ton (average price 3240 yuan / ton) in the 10th day, up by 32.4%. As an important raw material of phenol, the rise of pure benzene promoted the rise of phenol and increased market participation The inventory willingness of intermediate traders increased. With the recovery of terminal operation rate, the phenol market gradually increased in the rise and fall under the mentality of buying up but not buying down. Second, the phenol and ketone industry chain is very bright in the whole chemical industry due to the 200% surge of acetone, a by-product of the same plant. The surge of acetone drives up the upstream and downstream products of the whole industry chain, and the common raw materials are good for the cost support of phenol Market and the increase of market activity. However, in June, the momentum in the first ten days of the year continued to support the rising trend, and the trend in the middle and last ten days of the year turned around. The phenol Market offered 7925 yuan / ton on June 9, and 7150 yuan / ton on June 30, down 9.78% compared with that on June 9. In the middle and last ten days of June, the phenol market fell into a weak and weak downturn. Although the operating rate of domestic phenol plants has decreased again in a narrow range, with the overall operating rate at 60-70%, among which Changshu Changchun and Tianjin Zhongsha continue to stop, Yangzhou Shiyou’s operating rate has been reduced in a narrow range by about 60-70%. It is expected that the plant will be shut down for maintenance in the short term at the beginning of next month, and Huizhou Zhongxin in South China will resume its restart last week. On the port side, a small amount of goods arrived in late June for replenishment. After the Dragon Boat Festival, Hengyang replenished about 5000 tons, and Huaxi replenished more than 2000 tons. The port inventory is relatively reasonable, not high or low, and the supply side has little pressure. Although the supply side is relatively reasonable, in the psychological state of buying up but not buying down, the participation enthusiasm of intermediate traders is not high, and the situation of terminal factories is not optimistic. Most factories purchase on demand with a small amount of inventory, and many mainstream end users continuously reduce the operating rate because of the downward trend of the industrial chain, only selling enterprise inventory. In the middle and late June, the downstream demand is poor In recent years, the market has been declining. Phenol market falls into July.

In the third quarter, the market was on the fast track and fell rapidly. In July, the operating rate of phenol plants in China has dropped to 60%. In July, Tianjin Zhongsha 350000 T / a phenol ketone plant is expected to start on July 10, Shanghai xisa chemical 400000 T / a phenol ketone plant is expected to start in late July, Yangzhou Shiyou 320000 T / a phenol ketone plant is expected to start on July 10, Sinopec Mitsui 400000 T / a phenol ketone plant is expected to stop on June 28 and start at the end of August. Therefore, in late July, the operating rate is expected to pick up, the supply is relatively sufficient, the demand side is sluggish, and the industry is not prosperous. In the international situation, some factories are gradually returning to work, and the import volume is rising steadily. In a short period of one month, the phenol market dropped from 7900 yuan / ton to 5600 yuan / ton, a decrease of nearly 30%. Then, in the third quarter, the phenol entered a long-term downturn, and the “gold” market was growing “Nine silver ten” has not improved.

In the fourth quarter, the phenol market rose again, but the long-term benefits were still limited. Gold nine silver ten market pull limited, has not yet pulled up 6000 points, and the National Day holiday demand pull up has passed, the market quickly back to the position. However, with the downstream bisphenol a market ushering in a “high light moment” after ten years, there is no goods to sell, and the offer is suspended, the market is hard to get one product. The LG Lishui factory fire has injected a heart tonic into the market, and the bisphenol a factory has continuously raised the listing price for many times, which aggravates the reluctant selling sentiment of the goods holders. At this time, the downstream epoxy resin factory is also order production, and one product is hard to get. Bisphenol a plant was increased from 13500 yuan / ton at the end of October to 14000 yuan / ton, followed by Sinopec Mitsubishi to 16500 yuan / ton, and Changchun chemical to 19000 yuan / ton at the end of November. The market offer was extremely high, with East China offering 20000-22000 yuan / ton, and even some traders were robbed of only a few bags of goods. Phenol bisphenol A is closely related to the upstream and downstream products. Supported by small profits, the phenol market rose rapidly. In November, the market rose by 30% in half a month. With the market approaching 7000 yuan / ton, the downstream factories gradually withdrew from the market due to the saturation of raw material procurement. However, other downstream industries did not show a good trend, and the market entered a short-term high-level adjustment period. However, with the downstream subduction, the upstream phenol also lost its market value in December Good support, the end of the year, the market is sluggish, after the new year, the market continues to decline, as of the current market offer at 5800-5900 yuan / ton, the end of the decline in 2020. In the later stage, the supply of Zhejiang Petrochemical products will continue to increase, the business community is expected to focus on weak adjustment before the Spring Festival, and the terminal market just needs replenishment.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of January 7, the reference price of domestic butanone market was 7283 yuan / ton. Compared with the price of 7500 yuan / ton on January 1 at the beginning of the month, the price decreased by 217 yuan / ton, or 2.89% after the festival. Compared with the price of 7700 yuan / ton on December 1, 2020, the average price decreased by 417 yuan / ton, or 5.41%.

After new year’s day, new orders in domestic butanone market are rare, and the market is loose and falling / strong > 0

Before the new year’s day, the butanone market has been in a low consolidation state. After the new year’s day, the trading atmosphere of butanone market has not improved, the phased purchase has ended, the shipment in the secondary market has begun to slow down, the transaction of new orders for butanone is rare, and the operation rate of downstream terminal manufacturing industry of butanone has been declining, and the demand has been continuously reduced after the new year’s day, so the offer price of butanone market has begun to loosen. At present, the butanone market in South China is weak, with the factory reference price of butanone around 7100-7500 yuan / ton down by about 150 yuan / ton in seven days; the market of butanone in North China is loose, with the factory reference price of butanone around 7000-7300 yuan / ton down by about 300 yuan / ton in seven days; the market of butanone in East China is down, with the factory reference price of butanone around 6850-7300 yuan / ton Within seven days, it will be reduced by about 150 yuan / ton.

As of January 7, the reference price of domestic butanone market was 7283 yuan / ton, which was 217 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the month (7500 yuan / ton on January 1) and 2.89% lower than that at the end of the festival. Compared with the reference price of 7700 yuan / ton on December 1, 2020, the average price was 417 yuan / ton lower, which was 5.41%.

Internationally, on January 6, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose, with the settlement price of the main contract at US $50.63/barrel, up US $0.70. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, the settlement price of the main contract at 54.30 U.S. dollars / barrel, or 0.70 U.S. dollars. Oil prices continued to push up on Wednesday, with WTI rising above the $50 mark, mainly because US crude oil inventories fell by 8 million barrels for the fourth consecutive week, according to data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Butanone’s future is closely related to demand, pay more attention to the volume of new orders in the market

At present, as of July 7, the overall inventory of domestic butanone factories is acceptable, and the market remains cold. The specific future trend is closely related to whether the downstream demand can increase before the Spring Festival. Therefore, the future trend of butanone needs to pay more attention to the market volume.

According to the data of the commodity list of the business society, the recent formaldehyde Market in Shandong is stable. The average price of formaldehyde in Shandong is 1167.67 yuan / ton, and the current price has increased by 11.46% compared with last year.

Recently, the domestic formaldehyde market price fluctuated and consolidated. As of January 6, the mainstream factory price in Central China was about 1250 yuan / ton, the mainstream factory price in North China was 1060 yuan / ton, and the mainstream factory price in East China was 1246 yuan / ton. Shandong Linyi Galaxy formaldehyde production capacity of 120000 tons / year formaldehyde plant shutdown. In the near future, the operating rate in Shandong has declined, and some formaldehyde factories have been shut down for maintenance. Overall, the floor operating rate is at a low level, the actual single transaction is general, and the formaldehyde market is volatile and consolidation.

Upstream methanol situation: the quotation of methanol market in southern Shandong dropped 20-30 yuan / ton to 2210-2230 yuan / ton, Linyi received local goods around 2220-2230 yuan / ton and delivered them without tax, the mainstream was low-end, and there was no quotation for logistics goods. Shandong methanol Lubei market reference price in 2200 yuan / ton to spot. The turnover of methanol market in central Shandong Province was stable at 2290 yuan / ton, and the cash out of the warehouse. Methanol market in some areas fell slightly, limited support for formaldehyde.

In recent years, the southern Shandong timber factory started to work generally, and the purchase of formaldehyde was just needed, so the market trading atmosphere was light. Before the Spring Festival holiday is approaching, some plate mills have plans to take a holiday ahead of time.

Recently, the upstream raw material methanol market fell slightly, the cost support is not strong, the downstream wood factory operating rate is not high, the demand is general, so the formaldehyde analyst of business society chemical branch predicted that the recent formaldehyde price in Shandong will mainly fall below.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the price of pure benzene showed an upward trend in the first ten days of December, stabilized after a slight decline in the middle of the month, and fell rapidly in the last ten days. On December 1, the listing price of pure benzene was 4050-4550 yuan / ton (average price 4230 yuan / ton), on December 31, the listing price was 3920-4400 yuan / ton (average price 4204 yuan / ton), and the average price of this month fell by 26 yuan / ton, or 0.61%.

2、 Analysis and comment

At the beginning of this month, domestic pure benzene prices continued to rise supported by the external market. In the later stage, due to the decline of crude oil, the external market fell, the price of styrene fell continuously, and the inventory pressure of pure benzene northern factory increased, pure benzene pressure declined. This month, Sinopec experienced a continuous upward adjustment in the first ten days of this month, with a slight correction at the end of this month, a total increase of 200 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of this month, and an increase of 50 yuan / ton in North China

In terms of crude oil, Brent oil price rose by $4.095/barrel, or 8.83%; WTI oil price rose by $3.12/barrel, or 6.86%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent oil price decreased by 24.38%; WTI oil price decreased by 19.98%.

In terms of external market, the external market in December showed a rising and falling trend, and the price rose as a whole compared with November. On December 31, South Korea imported US $625.67/t of pure benzene, up US $37.67/t or 6.41% over the previous month; East China imported US $610.5/t of pure benzene, up US $25 / T or 4.27% over the previous month.

Downstream, styrene: this month, the price of styrene all the way down. Although the supporting surface of raw material end of styrene is strong, the overall supply is still in excess, and the probability of the wharf continuing to accumulate is relatively high, while the downstream price falls, some profits are reduced, and the finished products accumulate. The price in Shandong was 8450 yuan / ton on December 1 and 6066.67 yuan / ton on December 31, with a monthly drop of 28.21%.

Aniline: the price of aniline fluctuated higher in December. Affected by environmental protection inspection in North China, the aniline plant in the plant was put into operation at reduced load, and the market supply was reduced, which stimulated the price rise. On December 1, the price of aniline in Shandong was 7400-7600 yuan / ton; on December 31, the price of aniline in Nanjing was 7600 yuan / ton; on December 31, the price of aniline in Shandong was 7800-7900 yuan / ton; on December 31, the price of aniline in Nanjing was 8000-8100 yuan / ton, with an average monthly increase of 4.87%.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, we will continue to pay attention to the latest global epidemic situation and vaccine progress, OPEC +’s latest policy on production reduction, geopolitical risks in the Middle East and global economic recovery.

The emergency response of environmental protection inspection in northern China is over, and the logistics is restored. It is expected that the purchasing situation of pure benzene will be improved. The market is bullish on January. Pay attention to the trend of pure benzene and downstream units in January, purchase situation, and crude oil and external price trend.

For the coming end of 2020, propane Market ended up rising and rose strongly in the week. According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average market price of propane was 4007.50 yuan / ton on December 27 and 4105.00 yuan / ton on December 30, with an increase of 2.43% in the week and 6.97% compared with December 1. As of December 30, the mainstream propane prices in different regions in China are as follows:

Dec. 30, 2007

Propane in East China,% (V / V) not less than: 95 4150-4200 yuan / ton

In North China,% (V / V) is not less than 95.4000-4100 yuan / ton

In Shandong Province,% (V / V) propane is not less than 95 4050-4100 yuan / ton

Propane in Central China,% (V / V) not less than: 95 4250-4606 yuan / ton

Towards the end of the year, favorable factors in propane market dominated, supporting the price rise. In terms of international crude oil, it fell first and then rose within the week. The news is favorable to the market mentality. In addition, the high import cost supports the price to go higher. Near the end of the month, the price of CP will be released in January, which is expected to bring certain benefits to the market. Shandong area was obviously pushed up in the week, while the northern market was only slightly down, while the southern market was dominated by horizontal consolidation. At present, new year’s Day is approaching, and there is more demand for storage and replenishment in the downstream before the festival. The enthusiasm for entering the market is high, and the market transaction atmosphere is good.

In terms of international market, Saudi Aramco announced in December that there was an increase in propane and butane. Propane was US $450 / T, up by US $20 / T from last month; butane was US $460 / T, up by US $20 / T from last month. CP rose in December, which brought good news to the market.

At present, the CP price is expected to rise in January, which is good for the market mentality. The small rise of international crude oil will boost the market mentality. Moreover, the market is still in the peak demand season in winter. The downstream just needs to replenish, and the downstream needs to store and replenish before the festival. It is expected that the propane market will rise steadily in the short term.

On December 30, the cryolite commodity index was 70.45, flat with yesterday, down 30.39% from 101.21 (2011-10-31), the highest point in the cycle, and up 6.18% from 66.35, the lowest point on September 5, 2016. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

According to the data of business club’s block list, the price trend of domestic cryolite market is stable. The average price of cryolite market in Henan is 5800 yuan / ton, down 2.79% compared with last year. At present, the ex factory price of cryolite in Henan Province is 5000-6200 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong Province is 5500-6800 yuan / ton. The factory’s equipment starts normally, the inventory is sufficient, the downstream demand is general, and most of them are purchased on demand. The enterprise has a wait-and-see mentality, and the quotation is stable.

On the upstream side, the price trend of fluorite increased, and the average price of domestic market was 2718.89 yuan / ton. The domestic fluorite manufacturers were stable, the supply of goods was slightly tight, and the price trend rose. In the later stage, the price of fluorite may continue to rise. As for the downstream aluminum industry, the social inventory continues to move downward, and the supply and demand factors support the fluctuation of aluminum price upward. Towards the end of the year, the industry’s foreign investment gold plate gradually withdraws, and the downstream consumption may be weakened. It is expected that the aluminum industry will shake up later.

According to the cryolite product analysts of the business society, at present, the cryolite manufacturers are operating normally with sufficient supply in the field, and the downstream demand is general. The enterprises sell more by order, and the cryolite market support is insufficient. It is expected that the cryolite market will continue to be weak and stable in the later period, and the specific attention will be paid to the market demand.