1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the price of pure benzene showed an upward trend in the first ten days of December, stabilized after a slight decline in the middle of the month, and fell rapidly in the last ten days. On December 1, the listing price of pure benzene was 4050-4550 yuan / ton (average price 4230 yuan / ton), on December 31, the listing price was 3920-4400 yuan / ton (average price 4204 yuan / ton), and the average price of this month fell by 26 yuan / ton, or 0.61%.

2、 Analysis and comment

At the beginning of this month, domestic pure benzene prices continued to rise supported by the external market. In the later stage, due to the decline of crude oil, the external market fell, the price of styrene fell continuously, and the inventory pressure of pure benzene northern factory increased, pure benzene pressure declined. This month, Sinopec experienced a continuous upward adjustment in the first ten days of this month, with a slight correction at the end of this month, a total increase of 200 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of this month, and an increase of 50 yuan / ton in North China

In terms of crude oil, Brent oil price rose by $4.095/barrel, or 8.83%; WTI oil price rose by $3.12/barrel, or 6.86%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent oil price decreased by 24.38%; WTI oil price decreased by 19.98%.

In terms of external market, the external market in December showed a rising and falling trend, and the price rose as a whole compared with November. On December 31, South Korea imported US $625.67/t of pure benzene, up US $37.67/t or 6.41% over the previous month; East China imported US $610.5/t of pure benzene, up US $25 / T or 4.27% over the previous month.

Downstream, styrene: this month, the price of styrene all the way down. Although the supporting surface of raw material end of styrene is strong, the overall supply is still in excess, and the probability of the wharf continuing to accumulate is relatively high, while the downstream price falls, some profits are reduced, and the finished products accumulate. The price in Shandong was 8450 yuan / ton on December 1 and 6066.67 yuan / ton on December 31, with a monthly drop of 28.21%.

Aniline: the price of aniline fluctuated higher in December. Affected by environmental protection inspection in North China, the aniline plant in the plant was put into operation at reduced load, and the market supply was reduced, which stimulated the price rise. On December 1, the price of aniline in Shandong was 7400-7600 yuan / ton; on December 31, the price of aniline in Nanjing was 7600 yuan / ton; on December 31, the price of aniline in Shandong was 7800-7900 yuan / ton; on December 31, the price of aniline in Nanjing was 8000-8100 yuan / ton, with an average monthly increase of 4.87%.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, we will continue to pay attention to the latest global epidemic situation and vaccine progress, OPEC +’s latest policy on production reduction, geopolitical risks in the Middle East and global economic recovery.

The emergency response of environmental protection inspection in northern China is over, and the logistics is restored. It is expected that the purchasing situation of pure benzene will be improved. The market is bullish on January. Pay attention to the trend of pure benzene and downstream units in January, purchase situation, and crude oil and external price trend.