2020 is an extraordinary year. After the festival, all parts of the country stopped production and logistics transportation was blocked. Phenol market also experienced an unusual period in this year. In the first half of the year, it showed a deep “V” trend. Although it hit a new low in the first half of the year, it recovered the decline at the end, and in June, it reached the highest level of the year. In the second half of the year, we went through hardships and difficulties, but failed to break through the strange circle. According to the monitoring data of the business community, phenol (national market) was offered at 7487 yuan / ton on January 1, 2020, and then it was just around the spring festival that the market smoothly transited. After the festival, the domestic epidemic uncertainty continued to increase, and the market entered a rapid downward trend. Like most products in the industrial chain, phenol (national market) was offered at 4900 yuan / ton on April 3, Among them, the East China market is as low as 4500 yuan / ton (the lowest in ten years according to the monitoring of business community). In the second quarter, the market continued to release favorable information, and the market rebounded quickly. As of June 10, phenol (national market) was offered at 7925 yuan / ton, the highest in the year. In the second half of the year, the phenol market went through a very difficult period. First of all, it experienced a long downturn. In November, it was supported by downstream bisphenol A, which improved slightly. However, compared with other products coming out of the “high light moment” in the industrial chain, phenol made only a few upward breakthroughs in the fourth quarter, and finally continued to cross the year in a depressed state.

Trend chart of average price of phenol in national market in 2020

Monthly K-bar chart of ex factory price of phenol plants in East China in 2020

In the first quarter, after a smooth new year, the market entered a rapid downward channel in March. At the beginning of the year, the domestic phenol market was almost calm. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the daily price was 7325 yuan / ton on January 1 and 7425 yuan / ton on February 18, with a maximum amplitude of 4% in a month and a half. Then in late February, the market calm was finally broken. The business agency investigated more than 20 enterprises in the phenol ketone industry chain in the whole country, most of which were in operation, but the operation rate dropped by 30% compared with that before the festival %In the long run, there are few transactions in the market, and the inventory of enterprises is high. With the gradual resumption of work in the market, the problem of logistics and transportation is gradually alleviated. There are still difficulties in the short-term substantial increase of demand. The mentality is insufficient, low prices are frequent, and the focus of negotiation is constantly falling. As of February 28, the average offer of phenol Market in China was 7062 yuan / ton, which was 7.38% lower than that in mid February. In March, phenol market officially opened a sharp drop trend. The crude oil market experienced a rare one-day plunge of 30%. Under the impact of public events and crude oil plunge, the whole industry chain was seriously frustrated, and petrochemical phenol also showed a cliff like decline. According to the monitoring of the business community, the phenol market fell continuously in March, with a cumulative decline of more than 30%. By the end of the Qingming Festival, the offer of the East China market had dropped to 4500 yuan / ton.

In the second quarter, the sharp rise of crude oil led the phenol Market to stop falling and recover from the trough. First, affected by the expected production reduction agreement between Saudi Arabia and Russia, WTI and Brent surged by 25% in a single day. After the Qingming Festival, the listing price of pure benzene rose from 2250-2850 yuan / ton (average price 2450 yuan / ton) in the fifth day to 2850-3800 yuan / ton (average price 3240 yuan / ton) in the 10th day, up by 32.4%. As an important raw material of phenol, the rise of pure benzene promoted the rise of phenol and increased market participation The inventory willingness of intermediate traders increased. With the recovery of terminal operation rate, the phenol market gradually increased in the rise and fall under the mentality of buying up but not buying down. Second, the phenol and ketone industry chain is very bright in the whole chemical industry due to the 200% surge of acetone, a by-product of the same plant. The surge of acetone drives up the upstream and downstream products of the whole industry chain, and the common raw materials are good for the cost support of phenol Market and the increase of market activity. However, in June, the momentum in the first ten days of the year continued to support the rising trend, and the trend in the middle and last ten days of the year turned around. The phenol Market offered 7925 yuan / ton on June 9, and 7150 yuan / ton on June 30, down 9.78% compared with that on June 9. In the middle and last ten days of June, the phenol market fell into a weak and weak downturn. Although the operating rate of domestic phenol plants has decreased again in a narrow range, with the overall operating rate at 60-70%, among which Changshu Changchun and Tianjin Zhongsha continue to stop, Yangzhou Shiyou’s operating rate has been reduced in a narrow range by about 60-70%. It is expected that the plant will be shut down for maintenance in the short term at the beginning of next month, and Huizhou Zhongxin in South China will resume its restart last week. On the port side, a small amount of goods arrived in late June for replenishment. After the Dragon Boat Festival, Hengyang replenished about 5000 tons, and Huaxi replenished more than 2000 tons. The port inventory is relatively reasonable, not high or low, and the supply side has little pressure. Although the supply side is relatively reasonable, in the psychological state of buying up but not buying down, the participation enthusiasm of intermediate traders is not high, and the situation of terminal factories is not optimistic. Most factories purchase on demand with a small amount of inventory, and many mainstream end users continuously reduce the operating rate because of the downward trend of the industrial chain, only selling enterprise inventory. In the middle and late June, the downstream demand is poor In recent years, the market has been declining. Phenol market falls into July.

In the third quarter, the market was on the fast track and fell rapidly. In July, the operating rate of phenol plants in China has dropped to 60%. In July, Tianjin Zhongsha 350000 T / a phenol ketone plant is expected to start on July 10, Shanghai xisa chemical 400000 T / a phenol ketone plant is expected to start in late July, Yangzhou Shiyou 320000 T / a phenol ketone plant is expected to start on July 10, Sinopec Mitsui 400000 T / a phenol ketone plant is expected to stop on June 28 and start at the end of August. Therefore, in late July, the operating rate is expected to pick up, the supply is relatively sufficient, the demand side is sluggish, and the industry is not prosperous. In the international situation, some factories are gradually returning to work, and the import volume is rising steadily. In a short period of one month, the phenol market dropped from 7900 yuan / ton to 5600 yuan / ton, a decrease of nearly 30%. Then, in the third quarter, the phenol entered a long-term downturn, and the “gold” market was growing “Nine silver ten” has not improved.

In the fourth quarter, the phenol market rose again, but the long-term benefits were still limited. Gold nine silver ten market pull limited, has not yet pulled up 6000 points, and the National Day holiday demand pull up has passed, the market quickly back to the position. However, with the downstream bisphenol a market ushering in a “high light moment” after ten years, there is no goods to sell, and the offer is suspended, the market is hard to get one product. The LG Lishui factory fire has injected a heart tonic into the market, and the bisphenol a factory has continuously raised the listing price for many times, which aggravates the reluctant selling sentiment of the goods holders. At this time, the downstream epoxy resin factory is also order production, and one product is hard to get. Bisphenol a plant was increased from 13500 yuan / ton at the end of October to 14000 yuan / ton, followed by Sinopec Mitsubishi to 16500 yuan / ton, and Changchun chemical to 19000 yuan / ton at the end of November. The market offer was extremely high, with East China offering 20000-22000 yuan / ton, and even some traders were robbed of only a few bags of goods. Phenol bisphenol A is closely related to the upstream and downstream products. Supported by small profits, the phenol market rose rapidly. In November, the market rose by 30% in half a month. With the market approaching 7000 yuan / ton, the downstream factories gradually withdrew from the market due to the saturation of raw material procurement. However, other downstream industries did not show a good trend, and the market entered a short-term high-level adjustment period. However, with the downstream subduction, the upstream phenol also lost its market value in December Good support, the end of the year, the market is sluggish, after the new year, the market continues to decline, as of the current market offer at 5800-5900 yuan / ton, the end of the decline in 2020. In the later stage, the supply of Zhejiang Petrochemical products will continue to increase, the business community is expected to focus on weak adjustment before the Spring Festival, and the terminal market just needs replenishment.