1、 Price trend

This week, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose from 1833.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1836.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 0.18%, and a year-on-year increase of 9.98%. Overall, the urea market rose this week, with the urea commodity index at 85.43 on January 8.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream factory price of urea in Shandong rose this week. Yangmei plain urea quoted 1850 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 1820 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; minghuahua urea quoted 1840 yuan / ton this weekend, which is 10 yuan / ton higher than the beginning of the week.

In agriculture, affected by the epidemic situation, fertilizer preparation in some areas was appropriately advanced. In terms of industry, the demand of plate and compound fertilizer plants has been followed up appropriately, and the purchasing enthusiasm of businesses has improved. On the supply side, some units have been shut down for maintenance recently, and the overall start-up has declined. The market supply has remained low.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industry chain: the overall price of upstream urea products fell slightly this week: the price of liquefied natural gas was temporarily stable at 5366.67 yuan / ton, up 57.69% compared with the same period last year; the price of liquid ammonia fell this week, from 3306.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3273.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 1.01%, up 13.26% compared with the same period last year. This week, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea was temporarily stable, at 7266.67 yuan / ton. Overall, urea cost support is strong this week.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle of January, the urea market in Shandong may fluctuate slightly. Urea analysts of business society believe that the current agricultural demand is better, industrial demand has improved, urea supply is tight, and it is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate slightly.