Analysis: This week (7.7-7.11), the liquid ammonia market in Shandong was sluggish, with prices continuing the downward trend from last week. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the main production area of Shandong experienced a weekly decline of 1.28%. The main reason for the increase in supply pressure is the gradual recovery of maintenance equipment in the early stage, coupled with weak local demand, resulting in a stock accumulation in the market.

Firstly, from the supply side perspective, the maintenance equipment in Henan region has been put into operation, resulting in a loose supply situation. Coupled with the increase in urea to ammonia conversion by manufacturers, the supply has significantly increased, and the rise in ammonia volume has dragged down ammonia prices. From the beginning of the week to the middle of the week, the prices of manufacturers have loosened, but as the weekend approaches, the mentality of enterprises to raise prices is gradually strengthening. Some large factories have made slight price increases, but the magnitude is very limited. A large factory in Shandong only increased by 20 yuan/ton. As of Friday, mainstream large factories in Shandong have generally lowered their prices by more than 50 yuan/ton. Distributors mainly underreport shipments.
Secondly, from the demand side, some downstream facilities in Jiangsu and Anhui regions have undergone maintenance, resulting in a decrease in operating rates and a decrease in ammonia consumption. Downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, agricultural demand is still in the off-season, industrial demand remains rigid, and the overall demand side is bearish. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is 2300-2360 yuan/ton.
Prediction: The market demand will be relatively light in the near future, with agricultural and industrial demand following closely. There will be little change in supply in the future, with equipment on and off, and overall showing a slow increasing trend. On the demand side, in the short term, the output of compound fertilizer is not high, but there is a possibility of a rebound in operating rate. In the future, the increase in supply and the rebound in demand will continue to pull. The price remains within a volatile range.