According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from July 14th to 18th (as of 15:00), the domestic methanol market in East China port quotations fell from 2390 yuan/ton to around 2387 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.10% during the cycle, a month on month drop of 12.00%, and a year-on-year drop of 5.48%. Traditional downstream demand in port areas is still weak, coupled with the replenishment of domestic sources, the delivery of methanol in the port market is still not ideal, and the large accumulation of methanol inventory in ports has suppressed the market.

As of the close on July 18th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract 2509 for methanol futures opened at 2373 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2392 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2356 yuan/ton. It closed at 2365 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 4 yuan or 0.17% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 642109 lots, the position is 669737, and the daily increase is 15851.
On the cost side, the inventory in the coal market is showing a downward trend, and prices continue to remain stable. The market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment, and the cost support is temporarily stable. The impact of methanol cost is mixed.
On the demand side, terminal demand remains weak, with narrow fluctuations in olefin demand, suppressing the methanol market. Ice acetic acid: The market price of ice acetic acid is running low. Formaldehyde: The formaldehyde market is fluctuating. Dimethyl ether: The dimethyl ether market is stable with occasional declines. Most downstream products have reduced fluctuations in methanol demand, and the demand for methanol is influenced by bearish factors.
On the supply side, the overall loss of equipment is greater than the recovery amount, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The planned maintenance of methanol facilities in the next cycle will decrease, while the restoration of facilities may increase, resulting in a narrow increase in overall market supply. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.
In terms of external markets, as of the close on July 17th, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was $334.50-335.50 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market was 89.00-90.00 cents/gallon, up 5 cents/gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 235.50-236.50 euros/ton, down 2 euros/ton.
Market forecast, under the game of supply and demand. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly consolidate.