1、 Price trend

This week, the factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose. The quoted price rose from 1796.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1806.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 10 yuan / ton or 0.56%, and 6.27% higher than that of the same period last year. Overall, this week’s urea market rose, urea commodity index on November 6 was 84.03.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation point of view, the mainstream urea factory price in Shandong area rose this week. At the end of the week, the price of urea in Yangmei plain was 1820 yuan / ton, which was 20 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; the price of Shandong Ruixing urea was 1800 yuan / ton at the end of this week, 10 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; the price of open water urea was 1800 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of supply and demand, the domestic demand is fair, the agricultural demand in the northern region has followed up, and the industrial demand follows the market and purchases on demand. On the supply side, some enterprises limited production and equipment maintenance, resulting in local spot shortage.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chain, the overall decline of urea upstream products this week: the price of liquefied natural gas fell, with the quotation of liquefied natural gas falling from 3680.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3600.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 2.17%, and a year-on-year decrease of 11.04% compared with the same period of last year; the price of liquid ammonia dropped from 3100.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2966.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 4.30% compared with the same period of last year , a year-on-year decrease of 4.81%. The price of melamine downstream of urea rose this week, rising by 7.45% from 6266.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6733.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week. Overall, this week’s urea cost support is weak.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle and late November, the market of urea in Shandong Province may rise slightly. Urea analysts of the business club believe that the current agricultural demand has followed up, and the downstream industry is still enthusiastic about urea procurement, and the industrial demand is to be purchased on demand. It is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate and rise slightly.