This week (11.10-14), domestic liquid ammonia continued its upward trend from last week. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the weekly increase of liquid ammonia in Shandong region was 3.33%, indicating a strong upward trend. The main reason for the continued rise of domestic liquid ammonia is due to the background of environmental protection and production restrictions in the north, coupled with the favorable supply of equipment maintenance in some areas and the linkage factors of downstream demand improvement. At present, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong region is between 2400-2600 yuan/ton.

In terms of supply, the supply-demand pattern continued to improve this week, with tight supply performance. Some provinces in the northern main production areas have implemented environmental protection production restrictions, resulting in a decrease in enterprise operating rates. In addition, some facilities are still under maintenance, leading to a decrease in supply. In addition, due to the influence of Hebei, Shanxi and other regions, prices in the northwest and Inner Mongolia have shown a linked upward trend, while the production of ammonia enterprises in the southwest has declined, and equipment has been operating at reduced loads, resulting in a slight rebound in prices. This week, manufacturers in Shandong region raised prices within the range of 100-200 yuan/ton, with varying degrees of price increases from the beginning of the week to the weekend. The market performance is in short supply.
On the demand side, there has been a slight improvement in downstream demand, with the operating rate of compound fertilizers continuing to improve, and the demand for urea remaining strong and demanding; Especially with the strong upward trend of downstream nitric acid, the operating rate of acid enterprises has increased, and the demand for liquid ammonia has significantly increased. Overall, in terms of agriculture, there has been a significant increase in demand for agricultural procurement, while industrial demand remains strong with a moderate upward trend. Downstream urea also continues to rebound, with a 0.46% increase in urea prices this week according to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyi Society. Terminal delivery capacity has strengthened, and many purchases are made at low prices.
Market forecast:
Business analysts believe that the rise in liquid ammonia prices this week is mainly due to favorable conditions from the supply side. However, with the expectation of resuming work on northern maintenance facilities next week, the tight supply situation may ease in the later stage, and it is expected that the space for liquid ammonia prices to rise may be limited.