According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from May 6th to 9th, MTBE prices rose from 4862 yuan/ton to 4875 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.26% during the period, a month on month decrease of 13.14%, and a year-on-year decrease of 32.41%. During the May Day holiday, the market experienced a significant decline, suppressed by multiple factors such as a drop in crude oil prices, weak gasoline prices, and poor logistics transportation. Prices showed a clear downward trend, and downstream businesses moderately bought up inventory after the holiday, slowing down the decline. However, the market still faced resistance due to weak resource supply, and the overall trend remained weak.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: The international oil price has fallen, and the main negative factors are: OPEC+will accelerate production increase, and the positive signals released by the US Iran negotiations have eased the situation in Iran. As of May 8th, the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $62.84 per barrel.
On the demand side, in terms of gasoline terminal demand, during the May Day holiday, the middle and lower reaches digested inventory, weak transactions, and refinery prices fell; Although there has been an increase in post holiday replenishment trading volume, crude oil has dropped significantly, and the rebound of gasoline and diesel is weak; Under low inventory of diesel, the market support is strong, and the price drop is smaller than that of gasoline. The MTBE demand side is affected by bearish factors.
On the supply side, there is a shutdown plan and an expectation of reduced resource supply. The short-term domestic MTBE supply is affected by favorable factors.
As of the close on May 8th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by $13.51 per ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $649.53-651.53 per ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market has increased by $13/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB ARA closing at $741.49-741.99/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States increased by $15.09 per ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $708.29-708.64 per ton (199.99-200.09 cents per gallon).
Future forecast: Currently, MTBE is suffering from severe losses, and manufacturers are not willing to offer discounts. However, demand is substantively weak. MTBE analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the domestic MTBE market is mainly characterized by weak fluctuations.