1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash first rose and then fell in October. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of light soda ash was 1614 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was around 1584 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 30 yuan/ton during the month, a decrease of 1.86%. On October 31, the light soda ash commodity index was 81.23, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 57.04% from the cycle’s highest point of 189.10 points (2021-11-07), and an increase of 28.63% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the soda ash market has been consolidating and operating this month. Returning from the National Day holiday, due to the strong rise in the downstream glass market, the price of soda ash has been boosted by a narrow upward trend. However, the utilization rate of soda ash production capacity is high, and the market supply is sufficient. Downstream consumers mainly consume inventory, and their enthusiasm for entering the market is not high. They follow up more on demand, resulting in poor soda ash shipments and insufficient market transactions. Under the game of supply and demand, soda ash prices are weakly declining. As of October 31, 2024, the mainstream market price for light soda ash in the East China region is around 1420-1600 yuan/ton; The mainstream market price for light soda ash in Central China is around 1370-1600 yuan/ton.

On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, glass prices have shown a strong upward trend this month, with an average market price of 13.45 yuan/square meter at the beginning of the month and 15.95 yuan/square meter at the end of the month, an increase of 18.59%. The glass spot market has risen widely, downstream demand has improved, and there is a significant destocking in the market. The trading atmosphere in the market has increased, and the glass market has risen strongly.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, the price comparison index of soda ash and glass commodities on October 31 was 84.55, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 24.76% from the highest point of 112.37 points during the cycle (October 6, 2023), and an increase of 9.61% from the lowest point of 77.14 points on August 16, 2023. (Note: Cycle refers to January 1, 2012 to present)

Market forecast: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the recent price trend of light soda ash is mainly weak and stable. Although the downstream glass market price is strong, the demand for soda ash is limited. In addition, the high inventory of soda ash puts great pressure on enterprise sales. It is expected that the soda ash price will continue to weaken in the later period, depending on the downstream market demand.