Weak prices of ethylene glycol in April
| PVA 0588 ( PVA BP05) |
The price of ethylene glycol was weak in April. According to data from Business Society, as of April 30th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4481.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.70% from the average price of 4513.33 yuan/ton in the East China market on April 1st. The prices for each region are as follows:
The price range for spot goods executed by mainstream manufacturers in East China is between 4400-4630 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4400 yuan/ton, while the mainstream manufacturers in Central China have a spot price range of 4350 yuan/ton for external execution; The mainstream manufacturers in North China offer a spot price of 4500 yuan/ton for external transactions.
Fundamental logic of market weakness
Since March, the market has started trading overseas devices and there has been news of a restart, coupled with a shift in port inventory from obvious destocking to platform volatility, leading to a decline in ethylene glycol prices.
At present, the price of ethylene glycol is supported by cost factors, factory profits are narrowing, and the long short game is intensifying. The market is gradually considering bottom support, and the price is relatively stable in the near future.
Ethylene glycol may continue to operate weakly in May
Ethylene glycol may continue to operate weakly in May, for the following reasons:
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |
1. The expected increase in domestic and foreign supply in May may be realized; In terms of overseas facilities, all ethylene glycol facilities in Saudi Arabia have resumed operation, while the restart of facilities in South Asia in the United States has been postponed until early May. There is an expectation of an increase in overseas supply, while domestic imports are expected to remain in an incremental state in May; In terms of domestic facilities, there is an expectation of restarting facilities with a production capacity of 2.8 million tons per year. However, the new maintenance plan for domestic facilities also involves a production capacity of 900000 tons per year, which depends on the actual implementation situation. Overall, it is expected that domestic supply may increase in May.
Currently, the operating load of polyester is relatively high, and there is limited room for downstream demand improvement in May.
Expected failure variable:
If crude oil prices and coal continue to rise in May, the cost of ethylene glycol will provide strong support; The dominant factor in ethylene glycol prices is shifting from supply and demand to cost side;
2. Explicit inventory is contrary to expectations, and there has been no accumulation of port inventory, continuing to be in a state of destocking. Market sentiment is guided by the undervalued value of ethylene glycol, and funds are pushing up the price of ethylene glycol.
| http://www.polyvinylalcohols.com |