According to the bulk list data of Business Society, as of March 31, 2024, the reference price for diethylene glycol in the domestic market was 5400 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton or 4.85% compared to the price on March 1, 2024 (reference price for diethylene glycol is 5150 yuan/ton).

From the monitoring of data from Business Society, it can be seen that the domestic diethylene glycol market fluctuated in March, with an increase in focus at the end of the month. The overall supply and demand performance this month is weak, with domestic production starting at a high level and domestic supply increasing. Demand continues to recover, but the follow-up performance is lackluster. In the first half of the month, boosted by news of maintenance of some domestic equipment, the market sentiment was still good, and prices fluctuated and rose. However, in the middle of the month, there was a concentration and a large quantity of cargo arriving at the port. Since March 14th, the main port inventory has increased to 50000 tons, and the market spot has entered a 5150-5165 cycle, greatly reducing trading activity. All parties maintain a wait-and-see attitude. In the second half of the month, the supply and demand continued to be deadlocked, with overall supply remaining loose and no substantial increase in demand. There was a lack of clear news guidance, and the market tended to be weak and consolidating. At the end of the month, there was no significant bearish news in the market, but due to the decrease in inventory and the impact of the end of month delivery period, the market fluctuated upwards.

Downstream demand: The operating rates of polyester and UPR have both slightly increased, with most of them returning to work. However, the overall progress is slow, and there is a significant gap compared to the rapid return of 10000 tons per week in port delivery after the Spring Festival in 2023. The increase in weekly port delivery after the Spring Festival this year is slow. Of course, some of the reasons were due to the high load operation of domestically produced equipment in January and February, which resulted in downstream pick-up concentrated in domestically produced compressed main ports for import shipments. However, the overall pick-up level was still lower than expected, which is still a fact. As of the end of the month, the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of UPR is around 33%.

Future forecast: There may be some upward potential in the domestic diethylene glycol market in April. In terms of supply, according to the maintenance news of large-scale integrated devices in China in April, domestic supply may experience a narrow reduction, and the supply pressure may be alleviated to a certain extent; In terms of demand, as we enter April, downstream demand will continue to recover, while demand for unsaturated resins and polyester may steadily increase. Demand performance is the main reference direction for market adjustment. Business Society’s diethylene glycol analyst believes that the domestic diethylene glycol market may experience a strong adjustment in April, and specific attention still needs to be paid to downstream demand growth.