Recent urea price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic urea market price rose slightly this week, and the urea price rose from 2760.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 2793.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 1.20%, up 5.64% year-on-year. The urea commodity index on February 5 was 129.91, which was the same as yesterday, down 14.72% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 (2022-05-15), and up 133.65% from the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

Cost support is good, downstream demand increases, and urea supply is tight

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream price of domestic urea rose this week. Zhangzhou San’an urea quoted 2900 yuan/ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Shandong Ruixing Urea quoted 2780 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 30 yuan/ton from last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng urea quoted 2765 yuan/ton this weekend, up 65 yuan/ton from last weekend.

From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chain, the urea upstream market rose and fell this week: the price of liquefied natural gas rose slightly, from 5662.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 5926.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 4.66%, up 53.26% from the same period last year; The price of anthracite is high, and the price of Yangquan anthracite (washing medium lump) is 1880 yuan/ton; The price of liquid ammonia dropped slightly, from 4240 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 4140.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 2.36%, down 6.83% year on year. Upstream raw material prices rose and fell, and urea prices were generally supported. This week, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea was low, and the price was 8233.33 yuan/ton.

From the perspective of demand: agricultural demand increased slightly and industrial demand was normal. The operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has gradually increased, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement has increased. The plate and melamine enterprises are generally started, and mainly need to purchase. From the perspective of supply, some gas-fired enterprises have begun to resume production, with a daily urea output of about 150000 to 160000 tons.

Mainly rising slightly in the future

The domestic urea market may rise slightly in the middle and late February. According to the urea analysts of the Business Agency, the prices of anthracite and liquefied gas in the upstream of urea rose slightly, and the cost of urea was well supported. Downstream agricultural demand increased slightly, and industrial demand was normal. Some gas head enterprises shut down for maintenance, and the daily output of urea is about 150000 to 160000 tons. In the future, urea rose mainly in a narrow range.