In 2022, the domestic silicone DMC market will first rise and then fall, and all the way down to the end of the year. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of December 2, the annual decline of domestic silicone DMC will be 34.30%, with the maximum amplitude of 56.31%.
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |
The following is a detailed look at the overall trend of silicone DMC in 2022 in three parts:
In the first part (2022.1.1-2022.3.8), at the beginning of 2022, on the eve of the Spring Festival, the downstream stock of silicone DMC was well prepared, and the market rose broadly, up 22.71% in January. In the first ten days of February, when the Spring Festival came back, the downstream mainly digested the early inventory, and the silicone DMC market was put into operation. In the last ten days of February, the downstream demand was followed up, and the silicone DMC market rose again, with an overall increase of 14.97%. In the first ten days of March, the market focus of silicone DMC continued to rise. On March 8, silicone DMC rose to the highest point of the year. With reference to the 38800 yuan/ton area, it increased by 50.39% compared with the beginning of the year.
In the second part (2022.3.9-2022.5.20), in the face of high prices, the downstream procurement of silicone DMC was gradually tightened, and the wait-and-see mood was strong. With careful stocking, the demand side support was loose. From March 9, the silicone DMC market started to rise and fall back. As of May 20, the silicone DMC market price was 25260 yuan/ton, and the market basically fell back to the level at the beginning of the year.
Part III (2022.5.21-2022.12.02) After the silicone DMC market returned to the level at the beginning of the year, the downstream demand still failed to be effectively boosted, and the demand transmission was slow. In addition, the cost support given to the silicone DMC by the downward trend of the raw material market was also looser than earlier. Since late May, the focus of the silicone DMC continued to decline. Under the insufficient effective support, the silicone DMC market fell all the way to the end of 2022, as of December 2, The low end price of silicone DMC market has fallen below 17000 yuan/ton, a 34.34% drop compared with the beginning of the year.
Prediction and analysis of silicone DMC market in 2023
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At present, 2022 is nearing the end, and the macro news has brought some positive support to the market. However, there are still some uncertain factors in the market. Due to the logistics and transportation restrictions in some regions, the silicone DMC factory is still slow to destocking as a whole, and destocking is still the main intention of the factory.
On the cost side, the current raw material metal silicon is weak, but the overall market price is still above 20000 yuan/ton, so the cost of silicone DMC is still under pressure. Near the end of the year, the silicone DMC market is still in a dilemma of rising and falling.
In 2023, at the beginning of the Spring Festival, the organic silicon DMC market may usher in the downstream stage of stock preparation. With the increase of demand, the market may recover slightly.
In the long run, in 2023, the production capacity of silicone monomer in some parts of China will increase. It is estimated that the production capacity of silicone market will still be on the high side in 2023, and the pressure brought to the market by the production capacity cannot be underestimated.
However, the current silicone DMC market price has been at a low point in the past three years. Therefore, despite the contradiction between supply and demand, it is expected that the monomer plants will continue to fall sharply in 2023, and it will take time to verify whether the current market can really usher in a bottoming rebound. It is expected that in the first quarter of 2023, the silicone DMC market will mainly adjust its operation after a small rise, Perhaps the top-down reform of the silicone DMC industry chain is coming quietly in 2023.
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