441# silicon price trend
This week, there was a strong bullish atmosphere for silicon metal. The early losses led to a strong willingness of silicon factories to raise prices. At the beginning of the week, large northern factories took the lead in raising prices, which led some small and medium-sized enterprises to follow. As of June 17, the price monitoring of the business community showed that the average price of 441\\; silicon metal market in China was 18540 yuan / ton, an increase of 8.48% over last week.
| PVA 2088 (PVA BP20) |
On the 17th, the prices of 441\\silicon in various regions are as follows:
The price range of \441 metallic silicon in Huangpu port area is 18500-18800 yuan / ton, with an average price of 18600 yuan / ton; The price range of \441 metallic silicon in Tianjin port is 18350-18750 yuan / ton, with an average price of 18550 yuan / ton; The price range of \441 metallic silicon in Kunming is 18100-18500 yuan / ton, with an average of 18300 yuan / ton; The price range of \441 metallic silicon in Sichuan is 18000-18350 yuan / ton, with an average of 18150 yuan / ton; The price range of Shanghai \441 metallic silicon is 18900-19200 yuan / ton, with an average price of 19100 yuan / ton.
Influencing factors of metal silicon price fluctuation
Month on month increase in exports
Overseas demand has improved relatively, but affected by the epidemic and the international situation, the export volume has weakened as a whole compared with last year. According to the customs data, China’s metal silicon export volume in May was 58000 tons, a slight increase of 7% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 17%. From January to may 2022, the cumulative export volume of metallic silicon was 291900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 12%.
Merchants are reluctant to sell
The continuous falling price is that the cost of metal silicon is obviously upside down. Some silicon plants have started to shut down the furnace for maintenance. This week, the price of metal silicon has increased significantly. Stimulated by the bullish atmosphere, silicon plants have been reluctant to sell or cover the plate, resulting in tight market circulation of some specifications. In addition, the crazy jump for several days in a row has led to general acceptance of the price by downstream customers and less actual market transactions.
Demand side
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |
The price of aluminum alloy ADC12 fell by 100 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation was 20000 yuan / ton. The price of metal silicon rose, which forced the operating rate of aluminum alloy down. It is learned from the aluminum factory that due to the unsatisfactory consumption, the inventory of metallic silicon was added less in the early stage. In the face of the price rise of metallic silicon, it was temporarily wait-and-see and mainly purchased on demand.
The reference market price of organosilicon DMC is 21120 yuan / ton. The overall market price moves downward. The orders for metallic silicon in June have been basically signed. The downstream demand of organosilicon is generally followed up, which hinders the purchase of metallic silicon.
The mainstream transaction price of polysilicon is in the range of 225000-235000 yuan / ton, and the market operates stably as a whole. Up to now, most devices of domestic silicon material manufacturers have started normally.
Aftermarket forecast
Stimulated by the bullish mentality, the silicon plant is obviously reluctant to sell. Under the guidance of the psychology of buying up but not buying down, the inquiry in the downstream is significantly increased, while the downstream is more cautious about the high price operation. The profits of both sides are damaged in the stalemate game, and the continuous stalemate is unprofitable for both upstream and downstream. It is expected that the subjective rise of metal silicon is still expected in the short term, but the actual transaction price or lack of upward momentum.
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