1、 Price trend
According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of carbide SG5), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream was 8700 yuan / ton on April 29, down 3.76% from the beginning of the month and 2.93% from the same period last year.
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2、 Market analysis
In April, the demand for PVC was not high, and the market fluctuated downward, which was generally divided into down flat down price trend, with a decrease of 3.76% in the month. At the end of the Qingming Festival holiday in the first ten days of the year, the futures rose and fell, dampening market sentiment, and the spot price fell. In addition, the raw material calcium carbide fell and the cost support fell. At the same time, public health events affected transportation and the price of PVC fell. In the middle of the year, the good news of real estate boosted the PVC market and kept a narrow range of consolidation. In the latter half of the year, the logistics was still limited, the downstream enterprises started to decline, the purchasing enthusiasm decreased, and only the demand for replenishment just needed was maintained. The enthusiasm for goods preparation before the festival was insufficient, and the PVC enterprises continued to decline. At present, the price of raw calcium carbide is stable at about 3900-4100 yuan / ton, and the quotation range of domestic pvc5 calcium carbide enterprises is mostly around 8450-8950 yuan / ton. The quotation of Formosa Plastics fell sharply in May. CFR India reported 80 yuan to 1560, CFR China dropped 50 to 1340, and CER Northeast Asia dropped 50 to 1410.
According to the weekly rise and fall from January 31, 2022 to April 24, 2022, it can be seen that domestic PVC rises and falls in the cycle. The maximum rise is in the week of February 7 and the maximum decline is in the week of February 21. There has been little fluctuation recently.
Region, workmanship 4 / 29 (yuan / ton), 4 / 1 (yuan / ton) ., Up and down, remarks
East China, Calcium carbide method, 8750-8850., 9150-9500., – 400/-650., Ex warehouse
South China, Calcium carbide method ., 8800-8950., 9250-9500., – 450/-550., Ex warehouse
North China, Calcium carbide method, 8700-8750., 9200-9300., – 500/-550., Deliver
southwest., Calcium carbide method, 8650-8950., 9150-925 0., – 500/-300., Deliver
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |
For international crude oil, the crude oil price fluctuated in April and rebounded after the recent decline. Investors weighed the impact of the epidemic situation and anti epidemic blockade measures in some Asian countries and regions on the prospects of economic growth and energy demand, as well as the expectation of tightening energy supply caused by the Russian Ukrainian war, and the oil price rebounded.
Ethylene, the external ethylene market fluctuated and fell in April. Asian ethylene market prices fell. As of the 27th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $1276-1286 / ton and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $1326-1336 / ton. European ethylene market prices fell sharply. As of the 27th, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1890-1900 / ton and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1455-1463 / ton. The price of ethylene in the United States fluctuated and fell. As of the 27th, the price was 593-612 yuan / ton. In April, the external ethylene market basically fell, the market turnover was poor, and the market continued to decline..
Calcium carbide, in late April, the market of calcium carbide may fluctuate and fall in a narrow range. The price of raw material blue carbon fell slightly, the cost support of calcium carbide weakened, the downstream PVC market showed a downward trend, and the downstream demand weakened. In the future, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate and fall in a narrow range in late April.
3、 Future forecast
PVC analysts of business society believe that the fundamentals were weak in April and the PVC fluctuated downward. In May, the spring inspection enterprises were more concentrated, and there were positive effects on the supply side, which may bring vitality to the PVC market. We also need to pay attention to the recovery of downstream demand.
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