1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, toluene opened a downward channel after a slight rise at the beginning of the month, fell continuously to the end of the month, and fell again after the price rebounded. On November 1, the price of toluene was 6780.2 yuan / ton; On November 30, the price was 6170 yuan / ton, the lowest price in this month was 6170 yuan / ton, and the highest price in this month was 6830.2 yuan / ton, an increase of 7.78% compared with the beginning of the month; Compared with the same period last year, the price difference between the highest price and the lowest price in the month was 660.2 yuan / ton.

2、 Analysis and review

At the beginning of the month, due to the reduction of export sales of refineries, the supply of toluene in the spot market was tight, driving a small rise in prices. However, due to the poor downstream demand and the continuous downward impact of mixed xylene price, the toluene market mentality was frustrated and the price downward channel was opened. This month, international crude oil prices mainly fell, related commodities generally weakened, various bad news suppressed, and toluene fell continuously.

Late this month, the spot supply of toluene was tight, which was good for re ignition, and the price rebounded. However, crude oil plummeted at the end of the month, related commodities generally fell, domestic gasoline followed the decline, the price support mentality of toluene market was frustrated, and the price stopped rising and falling.

In the external market, toluene in South Korea fell broadly this month, and the decline gradually expanded. As of November 29, the price of toluene imported from South Korea was US $747 / ton, down US $125 / ton or 14.33% from October 29.

In terms of crude oil, at the beginning of the month, the crude oil market maintained a tight supply pattern, OPEC + maintained the original production increase plan, and the oil price fluctuated strongly. The US passed a $1 trillion infrastructure investment bill, which also boosted oil prices. In the middle of the month, it was reported that the United States may release strategic oil reserves, superimposing the deterioration of the epidemic in Europe, and the trend of crude oil was frustrated. With the continuous growth of U.S. crude oil inventory, the decline of crude oil expanded. At the end of June, South Africa and other countries found a new variant virus, and the oil price fell sharply, with a single day decline of more than 10%. As of November 29, Brent fell $10.94 / barrel, or 12.97%; WTI fell $13.62/barrel, or 16.3%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, TDI in East China continued to decline this month. At the beginning of the month, the price of domestic goods was 15500 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the price was 14375 yuan / ton, down 7.26% from the beginning of the month and up 11.15% from the same period last year.

In the PX market, the domestic PX price continued to be stable this month, with the price at 7300 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 7300 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The price was flat compared with the beginning of the month and increased by 69.77% compared with the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline in Shandong showed a downward trend as a whole this month. The price fell broadly at the beginning of the month, rose violently after the middle of the month, and fell again at the end of the month. The price was 8474.8 yuan / ton on November 1 and 7937.2 yuan / ton on November 29, down 6.34% from the beginning of the month and up 49.4% from the same period last year.

As for diesel fuel, the amount of diesel fuel fell by a wide margin this month, rose by a shock in the middle of the month and fell at the end of the month. The price was 8107.4 yuan / ton on November 1 and 7354 yuan / ton on November 29, down 9.29% from the beginning of the month and up 56.62% from the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of raw materials, crude oil fell sharply at the end of the month, but the market believes that this slump is excessive, and bargain hunting by traders increased. The market is still evaluating the impact of the Omicron variant on the economy and crude oil demand. And the market is waiting for the OPEC + meeting, and the production reduction of major oil producing countries is expected to rise. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of global climate, epidemic situation, OPEC + decisions on output, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions and so on on on crude oil prices.

Crude oil fell sharply at the end of the month, related commodities fell, and gasoline and diesel prices fell simultaneously. At present, the tight supply of toluene in the spot market still supports the reluctance of the industry to sell, but the cost support is insufficient, the downstream demand continues to be weak, and there are toluene shipments arriving at the port in the later stage, and the market may decline again. Pay attention to the impact of crude oil and external market trend at the raw material end, plant dynamics of enterprises at the supply end, port inventory and downstream purchase at the demand end on the price of toluene.