441# silicon price trend

In October, the price of metal silicon cooled down across the board. According to the data monitoring of the business society, metal silicon changed from leading the rise to leading the fall, appearing in the top ten of the decline list for many times, while in September, it was in the second place of the commodity rise and fall list. As of the 29th, the national metal silicon quotation was 41375 yuan / ton, and 441# metal silicon price has been adjusted back to within 500 million, down 31.99% month on month.

In October, low altitude news continued to interfere with the silicon market

1. The downstream demand is low: the downstream demand is reduced and the procurement is cautious. It is understood that the dual control of energy consumption has reduced the operating rate of silicone and aluminum enterprises. In addition, the current silicon price is too high, the downstream procurement is cautious, and the market trading situation is poor.

2. Increase in spot supply: Recently, silicon plants in Sichuan, Yunnan and other main production areas have resumed production, which has alleviated the tight spot supply in the market to a certain extent. The market has more supply and less demand, and the merchants have little power to support the price.

3. Traders sell at low prices: the price of metal silicon continues to decline, traders continue to take profits at a high level and sell goods held at low prices at this stage, resulting in frequent low-price transactions, increased market supply and further reduction of silicon price.

Outlook for positive factors in November

1. The dry season is coming, and the supply is insufficient: it is reported that the power supply in some areas of Xinjiang is tight, some metal silicon plants are forced to limit power, and the operating rate is low. Yunnan and Sichuan will usher in the dry season from the middle of next month, and the commencement will also be limited. At that time, the output will be reduced. Power rationing and rising electricity prices will limit the supply of metal silicon until the end of the dry season in the first half of next year.

Supply and demand relationship

Cost side: according to the price monitoring of business society, the price of primary metallurgical coke in Shanxi was 4094 yuan / ton and that of secondary metallurgical coke was 4038 yuan / ton on October 27. The spot market is relatively strong. Recently, the environmental protection policy has become stricter. Coke steel enterprises are facing a certain degree of production restriction, with weak supply and demand. At present, the raw coal price is still high, the profit of coke enterprises is low, the expectation of production restriction of coke enterprises is stricter, and the future expectation of coke supply is tight. At present, the cost of entering the furnace is high, and the price support mentality of coking enterprises is strong.

Demand side: according to the monitoring data of business society, as of October 28, the average price of organosilicon DMC market quotation in mainstream areas was 51666 yuan / ton. Compared with October 1 (organosilicon DMC reference average price of 63300 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 11634 yuan / ton, a decrease of 18.38%. At present, the trading atmosphere of silicone DMC is general, and the mentality of operators is frustrated. In the short term, the effective price support of silicone DMC is limited. Aluminum alloy fell, customers were in a strong wait-and-see mood, and the general inquiry list did not place an order.

4、 Future forecast

At present, the market transaction is sluggish and mainly wait-and-see. However, with the advent of the dry season in November, it is difficult for the main production areas Yunnan and Sichuan to meet the normal output. The large factories in Xinjiang reduce or stop production due to power supply restrictions, and the supply of metal silicon is about to usher in a big gap. Business analysts believe that the silicon price in November was mainly weak, but there is limited room for reduction. After the price of mainstream manufacturers is closed, the price may be corrected when making another quotation.