1、 Price trend

 

Azodicarbonamide (AC foaming Agent)

In February, the price of domestic liquefied natural gas dropped sharply. According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas on February 28 was 2840 yuan / ton, down 32.11% compared with the beginning of the month and 6.99% compared with the same period last year.

 

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

 

In February, the domestic LNG market fell sharply, down more than 30%. The weakness of this month’s market is mainly due to weak demand, sufficient supply, superimposed feed gas, cost support decline and other negative factors, liquid factory shipment pressure, price plummeted. On the eve of the Spring Festival, downstream users stopped work one after another for holidays, their purchasing enthusiasm declined, and the demand side continued to weaken. Manufacturers had a strong psychology of reducing prices and arranging warehouses before the festival, and prices plummeted. As of the 9th, they fell 28.29% in a few days. In the first week after the festival, the logistics recovered, the downstream returned to the market one after another, and just needed to replenish. Moreover, the effect of warehouse discharge in the early stage was acceptable, and the liquid prices in many places rose actively. In the latter half of the year, the price of feed gas dropped, so that the market fell again. Although it was near the end of the month and the cold air boosted for a short time, it was difficult to shake the weak market, and the liquid price was still stable.

 

In March, the market was still weak, but due to cost considerations, it did not fall deeply. On the 2nd, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Henan and other places continued to decline by 50-100 yuan / ton. On March 2, the price of liquid was 2600-2900 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia, 2690-2850 yuan / ton in Shaanxi, 2800-3020 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 2900-3000 yuan / ton in Ningxia, 2950-3150 yuan / ton in Henan and 3000-3100 yuan / ton in Hebei. The price of liquid was generally lower than 3000 yuan / ton.

 

Regional specifications rose and fell from February 26 to February 1

Inner Mongolia ﹣ LNG ﹣ 2700-3000 ﹣ 4100-4450 – 1100-1450

Shaanxi ﹣ LNG ﹣ 2830-3550 ﹣ 3900-4370 – 820-1070

Shanxi LNG 2850-3170 4200-4500 – 1030-1330

Ningxia LNG 2850-3000 4100-4400-1250-1400

Henan Province: LNG 3150-3400 4250-4500 – 850-1100

Hebei ﹣ LNG ﹣ 3050-3300 ﹣ 3850-4000 – 550-700

Downstream products are mixed:

 

Methanol, March 2, Shandong methanol enterprise factory price rise. The methanol market in central Shandong was up 20-30 yuan / ton and delivered to cash at 2170-2200 yuan / ton. The offer price of methanol market in southern Shandong increased by 10-20 yuan / ton to 2270-2280 yuan / ton, with some transactions in 2260-2270 yuan / ton. Linyi receives the local goods to negotiate the price to 2260-2270 yuan / ton and deliver it to the spot exchange, while the logistics goods offer price is 2230-2240 yuan / ton and deliver it to the spot exchange. Shandong methanol Lubei market reference price in 2180 yuan / ton to spot. Business community methanol analysts expect that the domestic methanol market in the short term consolidation.

 

Urea, March 2, Shandong urea market temporarily stable. Agricultural demand has started in succession, and the willingness of terminal procurement has gradually increased, and agricultural procurement in mainstream areas is cautious; the starting load of downstream compound fertilizer and rubber sheet plants has increased, and some downstream products are still cautious, most of them follow the market, and there is demand potential in later industry. Supply side: on the supply side, at present, the operating rate of urea enterprises is about 73%, and the daily output is about 160000 tons. The manufacturers have little pressure on shipping. With the gradual recovery of logistics and transportation, the inventory accumulated during the festival is also declining.

 

Dichloromethane. After the festival, the price of dichloromethane goes up all the way, and the ex factory price keeps adjusting every day. According to the business news agency, the price of some manufacturers is also increasing at the weekend, with a range of about 100 yuan / ton. As of March 1, the average price in Shandong was about 3636.67 yuan / ton, up 26.27% compared with that before the festival. Although the stock situation of dichloromethane downstream market is not good at present, the market supply is stable and tight, and the pressure of dichloromethane enterprise warehouse is not big. It is expected that the dichloromethane market will continue to rise in a short time.

 

In February, the domestic LNG market led the decline in energy sector. According to the price monitoring of the business community, in February 2021, there were 11 kinds of commodities in the energy sector that rose on a month on month basis, among which 9 kinds of commodities rose by more than 5%, accounting for 56.3% of the total number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities that rose were asphalt (23.27%), WTI crude oil (21.70%) and Brent crude oil (20.11%). There were 5 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 3 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top 3 products with a decrease were liquefied natural gas (- 32.11%), steam coal (- 26.76%) and dimethyl ether (- 9.38%). The average rise and fall this month was 5.65%.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

The LNG analyst of business news agency thinks: at present, the liquid plant starts up stably, and the imported gas is sufficient. With the temperature rising, the demand of urban gas is decreasing, and the market is gradually entering the off-season of demand. The pattern of oversupply is revealed, and the supporting force of superimposed cost surface is declining. Under the interweaving of long and short periods, the domestic LNG price is mainly downward. Although there is a short-term cold air boost, it is difficult to form an obvious inflection point, and the liquid gas price is low Factory shipment under pressure, it is expected that the market is difficult to rise and easy to fall.

EDTA