1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s big list data, the price of pure benzene rose first and then decreased slightly this week. On December 6, the price of pure benzene was 4280-4550 yuan / ton (the average price was 4376 yuan / ton); on this Sunday (December 13), the price of pure benzene was 4280-4650 yuan / ton (average price was 4556 yuan / ton), which was 180 yuan / ton or 4.11% higher than last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

From the end of November, the main influencing factors of pure benzene price changed from styrene to crude oil and external market. With the recovery of European and American prices and the opening of the arbitrage window between Asia and the United States, the price of pure benzene in Asia has increased significantly. The good news will drive the focus of domestic pure benzene market negotiation higher. At the beginning of the week, the domestic market continued the upward trend of last week, and the price continued to rise to Wednesday, up 4.57%. With the weakening of crude oil and styrene, the market mentality of pure benzene is weakening, and some low-cost goods sources in the early stage have begun to take profits and the prices are lower. From November 26 to December 13, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene increased by 600 yuan / ton to 4600 yuan / ton, and 200 yuan / ton to 4600 yuan / ton in the week. On Monday, the total inventory of pure benzene in East China port was about 250000 tons.

In terms of external trading, on Friday (December 11), the import of pure benzene from South Korea was US $631.33/t, down 23 US dollars / T, or 3.52% compared with December 4; and that of East China was 628 US dollars / ton, up 8 US dollars / ton, or 1.29% compared with December 4.

In terms of crude oil, crude oil rose rapidly after falling this week, fell back on Friday and rose overall compared with last week. The sharp increase of new epidemic cases in Europe and the United States has led to a decline in the crude oil market mentality. On Wednesday, Pfizer vaccine made new progress and prices rebounded rapidly. Compared with December 4, Brent rose 1.155 USD / barrel, or 2.36%; WTI rose 0.33 USD / barrel, or 0.71%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 25.07%, and WTI decreased by 23.07%.

Downstream: styrene: domestic styrene fell sharply this week. The downstream demand is weak, and the mainstream downstream is mainly supported by rigid demand, with insufficient gas purchase and styrene support, and the price drops. On Friday (December 11), the price of sample enterprises was 7550 yuan / ton, down 650 yuan / ton or 7.93% compared with last Friday, and the price increased by 0.44% compared with the same period last year.

Aniline: affected by the environmental protection inspection this week, some factories in Shandong Province reduced the load of aniline units, reduced the new market supply and increased the price. The price of aniline in East China increased. On December 13, the price of aniline in Shandong was 7600-7700 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 7900-8000 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, attention should be paid to the late stage vaccine and the new progress of the US economic stimulus plan, as well as the impact of gradual increase in OPEC + production.

Europe and the United States are in short supply of pure benzene, and the price remains high, which supports the Asian price. Focus on the late crude oil, external market trend and downstream styrene market.