After entering the traditional “silver ten”, propane peak season effect is obvious, after the festival began to push up continuously, the center of gravity continued to move up. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average price of propane Market on October 8 was 3277.50 yuan / ton, and that on October 31 was 3845.00 yuan / ton, with an increase of 17.32% in the month and a decrease of 3.27% compared with the same period last year.

The peak season of propane Market in 2020 is a little later than that in previous years. The traditional peak season should be “gold nine and silver ten”. This year, the “gold nine” propane market did not rise as expected, but the “silver ten” did not live up to expectations and ushered in a big rise. This rise is also reasonable. After the festival, propane rose significantly, and the atmosphere of market transaction was positive. With the introduction of CP in October, propane and butane increased to varying degrees. In addition, the international crude oil rose significantly on the first day after the festival, the cost of imported gas was high, and there were many favorable factors, which promoted the upward trend of propane. In October, the weather and temperature dropped significantly, especially in the northern market, and the terminal demand increased. The lower reaches have a strong bullish attitude towards the future market, and have a positive market entry atmosphere. Refinery mentality is firm, continuously increase factory prices, inventory is mostly in low level.

This wave of upward trend continued until October 27. Most of the ex factory prices in Shandong market have risen to more than 3800 yuan / ton, and the quoted prices of some refineries have reached 4000 yuan / ton. In the international market, the high import cost has brought support to the market. Moreover, the weather continues to cool down, the terminal demand is improved, and the downstream replenishment cycle is shortened, which brings obvious benefits to the market. In terms of supply, domestic refineries partially overhauled in October, and the market supply decreased, which also brought some support to the market. The mentality of the downstream is good and the enthusiasm of entering the market is high. Manufacturers to ship smoothly, strong mentality, prices continue to push up.

Until the 28th of the end of the month, propane Market showed a small decline, and the international crude oil fell sharply at the end of the month, which significantly suppressed the propane Market. However, the cost of gas intake was high and the market support for the market was still not strong, so the decline was very limited. At the end of the month, with the CP price coming out of Taiwan in November, the propane butane rose sharply, and the market weakness returned to the upward channel only two days later.

As of October 31, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Regional specification October 30

Propane in East China,% (V / V) not less than: 95 3450-3800 yuan / ton

Propane in North China,% (V / V) not less than: 953860-3900 yuan / ton

Propane in Shandong area,% (V / V) not less than: 95 3700-3850 yuan / ton

Propane in South China,% (V / V) not less than: 95 3650-3750 yuan / ton

Propane in Central China,% (V / V) not less than: 953700-3950 yuan / ton

In October, the domestic propane Market as a whole showed an upward trend, and there was a small difference between the southern and northern markets. The temperature of the whole country has decreased in different ranges, and the northern market is more obvious. After entering October, the demand has increased greatly, and the price has been mainly pushed up continuously. The rise of the southern market was not as obvious as that of the northern market. During the period, some of them fell, but in the later period, as the weather continued to cool down, and under the influence of several typhoons, the demand gradually increased, and the market remained dominant in the later period.

International market: in November 2020, Saudi Aramco launched CP, with propane 430 USD / T, up 55 USD / T compared with last month; butane USD 440 / T, up USD 60 / T compared with last month. With the introduction of CP in November, the propylene butane all rose sharply, which supported the domestic market significantly.

At present, the port price continues to rise, and with the weather continues to cool down in the later period, the market demand is still expected to improve, and the downstream replenishment cycle is shortened, which is still good for the market. In addition, CP rose sharply in November to support the market mentality. However, at present, the weakness of international crude oil market still brings some restraint to the market upward. It is expected that the propane market will be dominated by horizontal consolidation in the short term, and it is still possible to rise in the long term.