1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of domestic soda ash is rising. The average market price of East China on September 26 was 1633.33 yuan / ton, while that on September 27 was 1716.67 yuan / ton, up 5.1%. On September 26, the commodity index of light soda ash was 83.76, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 28.93% from 117.86 (2017-11-21), and increased by 32.64% from the lowest point of 63.15 on November 18, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
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2、 Market analysis
According to the business agency, the price of soda ash manufacturers rose this week. First, the soda industry meeting was held, and the price of some manufacturers was increased by 200 yuan / ton. The domestic soda market trend was relatively strong, and the price of enterprises increased. Second, domestic soda ash inventory declined. According to statistics, the inventory continued to maintain a downward trend, with a total of 517300 tons, with a decrease rate of 76700 tons or 12.91%, and the number of maintenance enterprises increased recently. The domestic total operating rate is about 76%. However, the overall performance of the downstream is general, most manufacturers still purchase on demand, and it happens that the manufacturers are mainly stable in shipping, and some manufacturers keep their prices unchanged, showing a wait-and-see state.
The price of domestic soda ash is rising, the downstream demand is improved, the enterprises are better to de stock, and the manufacturers are mainly active in shipping, but the overall situation is wait-and-see. The following figure shows the regional price quotation of light soda ash.
Regional price (yuan / ton)
North China 1850-1900 + 200
East China 1700-1800 + 100
Central China 1700-1750 + 100
Raw materials: the atmosphere of raw salt market in China is stable and slightly up-regulated. From the current understanding, the main production areas of sea salt supply performance is adequate. The lake salt market is stable and the price has no obvious change. The production of sea salt was stable and the supply was increased. Due to the adjustment of soda ash market, the trading atmosphere was good.
In terms of demand: the overall trend of China’s glass spot market has been stable in the near future, and the manufacturers mainly increase the funds for ex warehouse and withdrawal. Although the inventory prices of some production enterprises before cleaning up are relatively cheap, it has little impact on the existing price system. At present, with the reduction of social inventory of traders and processing enterprises, the speed of direct procurement of glass from production enterprises has also increased slightly. In the short term, spot prices are mainly stable.
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According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 38 th week (9.21-9.25) of 2020, there are 1 commodity rising and 1 falling commodity in the price rising and falling list of chlor alkali industry, and there are 3 commodities that rise or fall to 0. The main commodities that rose were PVC (0.11%); calcium carbide (- 0.49%) fell. This week, the average rise and fall was – 0.08%.
According to the analysts of the business agency, the price of some manufacturers increased by 200 yuan / ton when the soda industry meeting was held. However, the price of the rising soda ash in the downstream was mostly on the wait-and-see state, and the acceptance was not high. In addition, on double festivals, manufacturers mainly focused on stable shipment, and the price was mainly stable during the festival. At that time, all enterprises will adjust their prices according to their own conditions, and it is expected that soda ash will run stably in the short term, with small fluctuations, depending on the downstream market demand.
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