1、 Price trend
According to the data monitored by the business agency, on May 31, the domestic carbon black quotation was 7033 yuan / ton, with a slight fluctuation in the price range of 100-300 yuan / ton. This month’s carbon black market mainly fluctuated.
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
In 2019, China’s carbon black overcapacity becomes more serious, and low price competition becomes the normal industry. Affected by this, the unit gross profit of carbon black has been significantly narrowed, which makes the operating performance of carbon black enterprises decline significantly. After the Spring Festival in 2020, the downstream demand is weak, and the current low price is fluctuating.
2、 Market analysis
Industrial chain:
By the end of 2019, China’s carbon black production capacity has reached more than 8 million tons, which is a serious surplus and the production and operation of enterprises are difficult. According to the statistics of carbon black branch of China Rubber Industry Association, 21.21% of the 33 major member enterprises are in a state of loss. This year, this situation has not been effectively improved, and there is a trend of expansion. This can be reflected by the operating rate. Last year, the operating rate of carbon black industry was 50% – 60%, while the current operating rate is only 44%. In addition, blocked exports also put pressure on the domestic market. Affected by the epidemic, China’s total export of carbon black in the first four months was 234000 tons, down 10.6% compared with the same period last year; the total import of carbon black was 27000 tons, up 18.3% compared with the same period last year.
| Chitosan oligosaccharide |
In terms of raw materials, affected by the epidemic situation, the coal tar market fluctuated greatly. After the strong price rise in early March, affected by the sharp drop of crude oil, the price quickly fell and the weak operation lasted for a month. Since then, affected by the production restriction, the coal tar market began to increase slightly, with the price rising by 50-100 yuan.
From the perspective of demand, the overall trend is on the rise. According to the data of the terminal automobile industry in April, the industry’s production and sales have gradually returned to the normal level. The month on month ratio of production and sales continues to maintain a rapid growth, and the year-on-year ratio also ended to decline, showing a small growth. With the improvement of domestic epidemic situation, infrastructure projects in various regions have been carried out in succession, logistics and road transportation have improved significantly, supporting the increase of market demand and consumption of engineering tire and all steel tire downstream of carbon black. In addition, at present, part of southern China has entered the busy farming season, and the demand for bias tyres is increasing; in northern China, when the busy farming season comes later, the dealers of bias tyres have also started to adjust their inventory to prepare for the busy farming season, and the trading atmosphere of tyre market has picked up.
listed company
On April 29, the annual report of China’s top three carbon black enterprises was published. According to the annual report, in 2019, black cat’s carbon black production and sales volume are all around 960000 tons. As the leader of carbon black industry, the company achieved an operating revenue of 6.544 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.09%; its net profit loss was 276 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 168.89%. For the first time, the operating revenue of Yongdong Co., Ltd. surpassed that of Longxing Chemical Co., Ltd., ranking second. The company’s operating revenue was 2.856 billion yuan, up 10.40% year on year, and its net profit was 91.036 million yuan, down 67.24%. The company’s carbon black production and sales reached 330000 tons, of which sales increased by 19.10% year on year. Longxing Chemical realized an operating revenue of 2.806 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.07%; and realized net profit of 19.2212 million yuan, a decrease of 85.52%. The company’s carbon black production and sales are about 450000 tons, ranking the second in China. Three companies said in their annual reports that the main reason for the decline in performance is the excess of carbon black products.
3、 Future forecast
In the second half of the year, the carbon black market may be out of the hot water and the price may rebound to the bottom, according to the carbon black data division of the chemical branch of the business society.
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