In 2019, phthalic anhydride market ended in downturn

According to statistics, in 2019, the price of domestic phthalic anhydride dropped significantly. The price at the beginning of the year was 7466.67 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the year was 6300 yuan / ton. In 2019, the price of phthalic anhydride dropped by 15.63%. The highest price in the whole year appeared at the beginning of the year, and the highest price was 7466.67 yuan / ton. The lowest price in the whole year appeared on June 23, and the lowest price at the end of the year was 5550 yuan / ton, and the maximum amplitude in the year was 34.5%. As can be seen from the trend chart, The price trend of phthalic anhydride is roughly divided into three stages: the first stage is from the beginning of the year to the end of June, during which the price of phthalic anhydride drops sharply; the second stage is from the end of June to the end of September, during which the price of phthalic anhydride rebounds and rises; the third stage is from the end of September to the end of the year, during which the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuates and falls.

 

In the first stage, the price of domestic phthalic anhydride fell sharply, from 7466.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 5550 yuan / ton in late June, a drop of 25.67%. The domestic phthalic anhydride market fell sharply. The operating rate of the first domestic phthalic anhydride market remained at a high level of about 70%, the downstream factories maintained rigid purchase, the factory inventory pressure continued, the high-end transaction was blocked, the wait-and-see mentality was strong, the operation of domestic phthalic anhydride units was stable, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the field was sufficient, the delivery situation was not good, and the price of phthalic anhydride fell continuously. Second, the price of upstream raw material phthalic acid is declining. In addition, the spot supply of phthalic acid is sufficient during this period, and the port inventory has been above 20000 tons. The sharp decline of upstream raw material phthalic acid price has lost the cost support for phthalic acid market, and the market price of phthalic acid has declined. Third, due to the poor demand of downstream plasticizer industry and the poor demand of downstream, the market price of phthalic anhydride is not good, and the affected price of phthalic anhydride market continues to decline.

 

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The second stage is from late June to late September, during which the market price of phthalic anhydride rebounded and rose. The price in late June was 5550 yuan / ton, up to 7200 yuan / ton in late September, up 29.73%. In recent years, the market price of phthalic anhydride in China has increased significantly. Some manufacturers have shut down their equipment in the field, and the operating rate of phthalic anhydride in the field has dropped to about 60%. The spot supply has decreased, and some manufacturers have increased orders. The market reflects no overstocking of inventory, and the commodity market has improved. The market price of phthalic anhydride has increased substantially. In addition, in recent years, the upstream raw material o-benzene market price is rising, the port o-benzene is selling well, the inventory is exhausted, there are many o-benzene field maintenance devices, the spot supply of o-benzene is very tight, and the price of phthalic anhydride is affected by the cost support. Generally, the downstream starts, mainly purchases on demand, and has a strong wait-and-see attitude. The maintenance of domestic phthalic anhydride units has increased, and the delivery of phthalic anhydride in the plant has improved. In the early stage, the phthalic anhydride market manufacturers have been in a loss stage. This round of phthalic anhydride price increase makes manufacturers see hope, resulting in a large increase in the market price of phthalic anhydride.

 

The third stage is from the end of September to the end of the year, when the market price of phthalic anhydride fluctuates and falls. The market price of phthalic anhydride dropped by 12.50% from 7200 yuan / ton at the end of September to 6300 yuan / ton at the end of the year. At this stage, the market price of phthalic anhydride in China fell continuously. The market price of phthalic anhydride in East China continued to decline. The downstream factories maintained rigid purchase, the factory inventory pressure increased, and the high-end transaction was blocked. Recently, the factory inventory increased, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride declined. In East China, the main flow of negotiation for neighboring process and naphthalene process is 6000-6500 yuan / ton, and 5700-5900 yuan / ton respectively; in North China, the main quotation for phthalic anhydride market is 5900-6200 yuan / ton, most of the manufacturers’ prices in the site are recalled, the downstream construction is not high, the procurement is based on demand, the wait-and-see mentality is strong, the operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plant is stable, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the site is sufficient, and the downstream demand of phthalic anhydride is also strong The demand for phthalic anhydride decreased and the price trend of phthalic anhydride continued to decline. In addition, the upstream phthalic acid price continued to decline, the phthalic acid maintenance device continued to restart, the spot supply increased, the lower phthalic acid price lost the cost support for the phthalic acid market, and the phthalic acid price declined. The price of downstream DOP market fluctuates and falls, the downstream demand is normal, the customer’s purchasing enthusiasm is general, the downstream PVC market fluctuates and falls, the high-end DOP transaction is blocked, the mainstream transaction price of DOP market keeps falling, so the market price of phthalic anhydride keeps falling.

 

In general, the domestic phthalic anhydride market in 2019 is not good, with a drop rate of 15.63%. Phthalic anhydride manufacturers reported that phthalic anhydride lost a lot in 2019, with a drop in profits. The price trend of phthalic anhydride upstream in 2019 is as follows:

 

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It can be seen from the trend chart of upstream phthalic acid that the price trend of phthalic acid is similar to the market price of phthalic anhydride, but in 2019, the impact of NEFA phthalic anhydride on phthalic anhydride is large, the market of phthalic anhydride is sluggish, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is significantly lower.

 

The market price trend of DOP downstream of phthalic anhydride is as follows:

In 2019, the downstream DOP price dropped significantly, with a drop of 14.07% for the whole year. The depression of the downstream industry is a major negative impact on the phthalic anhydride industry, which has affected the market price of phthalic anhydride.

 

In 2019, the demand of phthalic anhydride market is not good, and the market goes down. However, in 2019, phthalic anhydride manufacturers report a lot of losses. It is predicted that the price of domestic phthalic anhydride market will continue to go down substantially in 2020, which is less likely. The plasticizer industry may increase due to the recovery of the real estate market, so the market price of phthalic anhydride may rise in 2020, and the highest price of phthalic anhydride market in 2020 is expected to be in the fourth place In the quarter, the highest price is about 7500 yuan / ton, the lowest price may appear in the second quarter, and the lowest price is about 5800 yuan / ton.

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