Price Trend

The domestic butadiene market rose and fell this week. Business Club monitoring showed that the domestic butadiene market price was 9534 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, 9934 yuan/ton at the weekend, a 4.20% increase in the week, the maximum price amplitude in the week was 5.13%, the ring-to-ring price rose 17.47%, and the year-on-year decline was 23.23%.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: This week, the domestic butadiene market soared and fell, Sinopec’s supply price increased to 1000-10100 yuan/ton, and Northeast manufacturers’price was 9700-9810 yuan/ton. During the week, Sinopec’s supply price increased continuously, which brought a significant boost to the market. With the joint support of downstream stages, the nodal manufacturers’export supply increased significantly at the beginning of the week, which drove the market to a high point. However, with the rapid rise in prices, it is difficult to sustain downstream support, market prices fell slightly in the latter part of the week. The price of downstream synthetic rubber has risen, and the supply of butadiene spot resources still has some support. Some business offers remain high, but the downstream inquiries are cold, the actual single transaction is not good, and the market has heard of slightly lower prices. On Thursday, part of the Northeast China’s supply and flow of goods beat, dragging prices soared and fell, Shandong high-grade goods delivered at 10,300-10,400 yuan/ton; East China’s prices at 10,500-10,600 yuan/ton, an average ring-to-ring increase of 500-600 yuan/ton.

Installation: The 60,000-ton/year extraction equipment of Shandong Weite Chemical Company stopped after a short period of operation in January, and the restart time is unknown. Shandong Huayu 60,000 tons/year butadiene extraction plant stopped around July 12. The downstream SBS plant operated normally and some raw materials were purchased. The 100,000 tons/year Oxygen Dehydrogenation Unit in Silbang, Jiangsu Province stopped for overhaul on July 29, and the estimated time lasted about 15 days. The 30,000 tons/year plant of Liaoyang Petrochemical Company stopped for overhaul around June 5 and restarted in early August, with normal export of goods.

Industry chain: downstream synthetic rubber, styrene-butadiene rubber, this cycle, the domestic dry rubber factory price slightly increased, styrene-butadiene rubber 1502 sheet price 10600-10700 yuan/ton, 300-400 yuan/ton higher than last period; styrene-butadiene oil rubber 1712 sheet price 9600-9750 yuan/ton, 300 yuan/ton higher than last period. Market prices continued to rise, Qilu 1502E quoted near 10 900 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton from last week; Qilu 1712 quoted at 9 900 yuan/ton; Qilu 1712 quoted 300 yuan/ton from last week.

Cis-butadiene rubber: This week, the domestic mainstream cis-butadiene rubber factory price rose to 10600-10800 yuan/ton range, the mainstream increase was 200-300 yuan/ton; only on Thursday, CNPC Northeast Sales Company increased another 300 yuan/ton, other sales companies did not keep up with the rise; the mainstream market price rose to 11000-11400 yuan/ton range, compared with last week’s mainstream. The increase is 200-300 yuan/ton. SBS: Domestic SBS market oil glue low finishing, dry rubber road to small finishing.
3. Future Market Forecast

On the positive side, domestic manufacturers have no obvious inventory pressure for the time being. The market of synthetic rubber keeps rising. Outside price and domestic mainstream manufacturers’supply price are firm. On the negative side, synthetic rubber profits are under pressure, high-price supply is not smooth, and it is difficult to sustain support just in need. With some high-priced goods in the north, butadiene market fell back slightly. In the next cycle, on the one hand, most domestic manufacturers have no obvious pressure on inventory, or will support the supply price; on the other hand, the rising price of synthetic rubber will boost the mentality of some businessmen; on the other hand, the external market is high, the spot resources in East China are temporarily limited, and supply-side factors will support the market. However, high-price supply and transaction is not smooth, downstream profits hang upside down, resulting in pressure on start-up, staggered rigid demand is difficult to sustain, and supply and demand fundamentals are weak. Under the comprehensive influence, the butadiene analyst of business association predicts that the short-term domestic butadiene market is mainly weak finishing, and attention should be paid to the operation and output of Nanjing Chengzhi plant.