Price Trend

The domestic BDO market has a narrow upward margin. According to the sample data monitored by business associations, the domestic BDO market price at the beginning of the week was 9280 yuan/ton, and the average domestic BDO market price at the weekend was 9360 yuan/ton, with a 0.86% increase in the week and a 19.90% decrease over the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the domestic BDO market is going up narrowly. The price of raw material calcium carbide is high, the cost pressure is strong, and last weekend, because of the explosion of Yima plant, Kaixiang Henan carried out safety investigation, BDO device stopped, aggravating the market price mentality, some factories borrowed the opportunity to raise quotations, low-price supply reduced. Although the demand for PBT and PTMEG in the main downstream has not improved significantly, the enthusiasm of inquiries in the spot market has improved slightly compared with the earlier period, and the focus of discussion has moved up narrowly. Up to now, the mainstream price of East China market is 8500-8900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last week’s low end. This week, the domestic BDO market started at 47.9%, with a weekly output of about 19911 tons.

In terms of installation, this week, 110,000 tons/year BDO plant in Kaixiang, Henan Province, was stopped for safety checks due to the explosion of Yima, and the restart time was uncertain; 2 sets of 100,000 tons/year plant in Cathay Pacific, Xinjiang, planned to replace catalysts in the near future; 210,000 tons/year BDO plant in Tianye, Xinjiang, except for the normal operation of the first phase, other devices were not restarted for the time; The 10,000-ton/year BDO plant stopped for overhaul on June 20. It was heard that it restarted last week. The 80,000-ton/year BDO plant in Yizheng Dalian was overhauled from the end of June to the end of July. Phase I and II BDO units of Meike are running normally. Phase III stop for overhaul on July 2. On July 25, about 60% of Dongyuan 100,000 tons per year plant in Inner Mongolia is scheduled to start, and the overhaul plan is delayed.

On the market side, as of Friday (8.2), the BDO market in South China is running on the high side. Although some factories are scheduled to repair in August, after the restart of the pre-maintenance equipment, the load is gradually lifted, and the supply side is generally supported. Manufacturers have a strong market mentality, constrained by the downturn in demand, blocked by a large increase, narrow upward. The BDO market in East China is in high order. The manufacturer is in a strong market mentality, but the relaunch of the factory continues to lift the load, the support of the supply side is weakened, and the downstream market is still weak, it is difficult to push up sharply, and the center of gravity is slightly upward.

Industry chain: raw materials, calcium carbide, domestic calcium carbide market this week out of the regional increase, the actual factory turnover narrow decline, market wait-and-see atmosphere cautious. This week, the production of calcium carbide installations in Shaanxi has been improved and the supply has been enhanced. The supply of calcium carbide in Inner Mongolia has been increased due to the impact of supporting PVC maintenance. The transportation in Wuhai and Ningxia is under pressure and the dangerous vehicles are hard to find, which has slowed down the delivery speed and increased the inventory of some production enterprises. Limited electricity occurs from time to time in Wumeng area, resulting in regional disparities in carbide arrivals in Shandong, Hebei and Northeast China. Purchasing enterprises raise purchase prices to attract supply. In terms of raw materials, the price of middling blue charcoal has been stable, while the price of small charcoal has been declining. Affected by environmental pressure, the price of coal tar has been rising. The start-up rate of blue charcoal enterprises has been improved, and the stock of some enterprises has been under pressure. Methanol: The market of methanol fell this week. The mainstream price in Inner Mongolia is from 1700 yuan/ton to 1630 yuan/ton. Half of the shipments this week are from manufacturers, mostly filling empty lists. At present, manufacturers’inventories continue to increase and traders are not optimistic about the market next week. The mainstream price in Guanzhong this week ranged from 1810 yuan/ton to 1700 yuan/ton. Due to the weak downstream demand and the small number of transport vehicles, some orders are still issued. Due to the overhaul of Xianyang Chemistry and Shaanxi Weihua factories next week, there will be some support for the local market.

3. Future Market Forecast

The strong cost support, together with the explosion of Yima Gasification Plant, the safety investigation of Kaixiang plant parking, and the obstruction of transportation, the factory’s strong market mentality intensified, some factories increased their offer, some downstream spot markets entered the market to replenish warehouses, the enthusiasm of inquiry improved compared with the earlier period, just needed small units and high prices to conclude transactions, and the focus of negotiations increased narrowly. However, the main downstream demand has not shown signs of improvement, and there is a strong wait-and-see mood. BDO analysts of business associations expect that the domestic BDO market will digest the growth rate mainly next week, but they do not rule out a steady upward trend, focusing specifically on device dynamics and downstream demand changes.