According to the monitoring of the business community, the ABS market in 2022 rebounded at the end of August after a high of 14850 yuan/ton fell at the beginning of the year. As of November 30, the ABS price was 11800 yuan/ton, down 20.54% for the whole year, and it was generally weak.

 

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The market trend of ABS in 2022 is mainly divided into four stages:

 

The first stage: shock operation stage. According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of ABS1 was 14850 yuan/ton on April 1. As of April 6, it had reached an annual high of 15250 yuan/ton, with a range increase of 2.69% and an amplitude of 8.16%. During the period, the demand for goods preparation before the festival at the beginning of the year was low. After the Spring Festival, downstream enterprises returned to work slowly after the festival. Many factors changed rapidly, and the spot price fluctuated greatly. By the end of February, the demand of the main downstream household appliances industry had been delayed and the market ABS trading situation had improved. In addition, the crude oil price rose at a high level due to the influence of the European situation, and each raw material end gradually strengthened. The price of ABS rose in a volatile way due to various favorable conditions.

 

The second stage: sharp decline stage. According to the monitoring of the business community, the ABS price fell from 15250 yuan/ton on April 6 to 11700 yuan/ton on August 30, a decline of 23.28%. At this stage, the 600000 t/a unit of Liaoning Bora was put into production, and the capacity of Lejin Huizhou increased to 450000 t/a. In addition, in August, the load of units such as Taiwan Chemical, Jilin Chemical, Jianghai, etc. increased, the domestic supply was abundant, and the supply side was under pressure. In addition, due to the influence of the off-season of the industry, demand support is insufficient. Since it is difficult to find good fundamentals, ABS prices have fallen for nearly half a year.

 

The third stage: peak season warming stage. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of October 10, the ABS price rose to a stage high of 13100 yuan/ton, up 11.97% from 11700 yuan/ton at the end of August. The traditional peak demand season of double section goods preparation in the interval, and the downstream demand is high. At the same time, the prices of upstream three raw materials strengthened, which jointly promoted the sharp rebound of ABS market.

 

The fourth stage: falling back. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 30, the ABS price was 11800 yuan/ton, down 9.92% from 13100 yuan/ton on October 10. The range is mainly affected by the drop in demand at the end of the peak season, and the stock of downstream factories, including the main terminal home appliance industry, has declined. The supply pressure is difficult to solve due to the continuous high construction of ABS enterprises, and the increase in spot prices has been reversed.

 

Overall, the trend of ABS market in 2022 is mainly affected by the following aspects:

 

Rapid expansion of the industry, concentrated release of new capacity

 

In recent years, China’s ABS industry has been in a long period of production expansion. With the increase of domestic total capacity, the supply side of ABS is under pressure and the price level is lower.

 

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According to the business community, the new capacity in 2022 will be concentrated in the second half of the year. In the first half of the year, only the transformation of Lejin Huizhou production line increased 150000 tons/year to 450000 tons/year. In the second half of the year, the 600000 t/a production line of Liaoning Bora has been realized, the 400000 t/a unit of Shandong Lihuayi, the 400000 t/a unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical, and the 250000 t/a unit of Ningbo Taihua will be put into production successively at the end of the year. It is estimated that the domestic ABS production capacity will increase by 3.5 million tons/year, and the supply side pressure will increase significantly.

 

Stable inventory digestion, strong demand and tenacity

 

Downstream of ABS, the main consumer industries are household appliances, automobiles, office equipment and other industries.

 

In 2022, except for the centralized maintenance in July, the unit load of domestic ABS enterprises will be more than 80% in the rest of the year, and more than 90% will be started in four months of the year. ABS production will be a great leap forward. After the Spring Festival, although the downstream construction was delayed, the demand continued to be restored around March, and the support from ABS was gradually obvious. However, in the late traditional peak season, ABS, a group of downstream suppliers, made great efforts to prepare goods, pushing spot prices to stop falling and rebound. Outside the two centralized volume ranges, domestic rigid demand also showed strong resilience, and relatively effectively digested such a high level of output. The annual total inventory remained at 172600 tons per month, and the inventory was further consumed in the second half of the year.

 

Long term weakening of raw material acrylonitrile ABS market dragged

 

According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 30, the average spot price of domestic acrylonitrile was 10500 yuan/ton, down 27.88% from 14560 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year, with the decline concentrated at the beginning and middle of the year. Acrylonitrile was also affected by the expansion and high load of the industry this year. At the beginning of the year, the supply side was under pressure due to the high commencement of the plant and the commissioning of Lihuayi’s new plant, and the market fell rapidly. In the second half of the year, the supply of propylene as raw material increased, the market competition intensified, the crude oil was weak, the propylene price fell all the way, and the bad acrylonitrile market fell sharply in the middle of the year. The overall support for ABS is poor.

 

Future forecast: ABS analysts from the business community believe that the ABS capacity expansion in 2022 will be significant and concentrated at the end of the year. If the new ABS production lines are put into production on time in December, it will be difficult for the terminal enterprises to follow up the consumption rate for a while. By then, the state of phased overcapacity will be deepened, and the pressure on the supply side will inevitably have a peak. At present, the US dollar remains strong, international crude oil and upstream three are expected to continue to decline, and ABS cost support may continue to be weak. In addition, the commencement of terminal enterprises at the end of the year usually drops. In summary, it is difficult to find a good fundamental situation for ABS in the short term, and the market may fall in the near future. In the long run, the ABS price center may be adjusted to seek a new supply and demand balance point.

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In November 2022, the domestic 1 # tin ingot market rose in shock. The average price of the domestic market was 165060 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 184790 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 11.95%.

 

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On November 29, the tin commodity index was 94.62, up 2.19 points from yesterday, down 49.59% from the cycle’s highest point of 187.70 (2022-03-09), and up 120.77% from the lowest point of 42.86 on December 9, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

 

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the monthly K-bar chart that the tin price has mainly declined in the past six months, with a large decline of -18.54% in May and -22.32% in June. From the weekly K-bar chart, we can see that the lead price has fallen more or less recently, and the overall decline.

 

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In terms of inventory, Lunxi’s inventory fell again, reaching a new low point in nearly five months, which again boosted the market mentality. The inventory of Shanghai Tin continued to rise slightly. After three consecutive weeks of recovery, the latest inventory level has reached a new high in nearly five months.

 

Tin prices rose in November due to volatility, which was mainly boosted by macro factors. The low inventory level of Lunxi is also an important factor to boost market prices. In terms of fundamentals, the changes in tin market fundamentals are limited, still showing loose supply and weak demand. After entering the third quarter, domestic smelters generally started higher, tin supply was relatively loose, and domestic inventory was accumulated as a whole. In terms of downstream demand, the downstream application of tin is mainly tin solder, which is mainly used in electronic industry and automobile industry. Under the current economic background, the consumption of electronic products has always been tepid, which has also changed the supply of tin from tight to loose. In addition, the expectation that the electronic industry will warm up in the short term is low, and the poor demand expectation will drag down the tin market. The business agency expects that the tin price in the future will be mainly weak in the long run, but will still be affected by the macro in the short run, maintaining a wide range of shocks.

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Price trend

 

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Recently, the domestic POM market has been reorganized and operated, and the overall price performance has fluctuated. According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of December 5, the average ex factory price of domestic POM was 13933.33 yuan/ton, with a weekly range of+0.48%.

 

Cause analysis

 

In terms of raw materials, the methanol market has fallen in recent shocks. Although the crude oil rebounded at a low level, the methanol market has only been boosted. The continuous decline in the arrival of coal in Northwest China has led to the continued downward cost support, the continuous recovery of the operating rate of production enterprises, and the continued weakness of demand. Most production enterprises and traders mainly discharge their inventories.

 

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In terms of supply: Recently, the operating rate of domestic POM enterprises has remained at a high level, and the current industry load is generally higher than before, approaching 90%. Imported materials are also abundant, and the price is lower. In terms of processing profit, the enterprise’s margin rose by a narrow margin, with a gross profit level of about 2350 yuan per ton, which is fair.

 

Demand: the load of POM industry rose last week, and the market supply was abundant. The mentality of producers and traders is supported by the rise of the factory price, but the demand has weakened recently, and there is much room for profit in the on-site shipment negotiation. The enthusiasm of terminal enterprises to prepare goods is average, and the demand follow-up is slightly lagging behind.

 

Future market forecast

 

At the beginning of December, the POM market was in shock. The load of domestic polymerization plants rebounded, and the overall supply was abundant. The factory price of domestic materials has been raised, while that of imported materials has been lowered. The inventory position rose, while demand was relatively weak. Downstream enterprises mainly digest inventory, and pick up goods mostly in small pieces. It is estimated that the POM market may enter the weak consolidation market in the short term.

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In 2022, the domestic silicone DMC market will first rise and then fall, and all the way down to the end of the year. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of December 2, the annual decline of domestic silicone DMC will be 34.30%, with the maximum amplitude of 56.31%.

 

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The following is a detailed look at the overall trend of silicone DMC in 2022 in three parts:

 

In the first part (2022.1.1-2022.3.8), at the beginning of 2022, on the eve of the Spring Festival, the downstream stock of silicone DMC was well prepared, and the market rose broadly, up 22.71% in January. In the first ten days of February, when the Spring Festival came back, the downstream mainly digested the early inventory, and the silicone DMC market was put into operation. In the last ten days of February, the downstream demand was followed up, and the silicone DMC market rose again, with an overall increase of 14.97%. In the first ten days of March, the market focus of silicone DMC continued to rise. On March 8, silicone DMC rose to the highest point of the year. With reference to the 38800 yuan/ton area, it increased by 50.39% compared with the beginning of the year.

 

In the second part (2022.3.9-2022.5.20), in the face of high prices, the downstream procurement of silicone DMC was gradually tightened, and the wait-and-see mood was strong. With careful stocking, the demand side support was loose. From March 9, the silicone DMC market started to rise and fall back. As of May 20, the silicone DMC market price was 25260 yuan/ton, and the market basically fell back to the level at the beginning of the year.

 

Part III (2022.5.21-2022.12.02) After the silicone DMC market returned to the level at the beginning of the year, the downstream demand still failed to be effectively boosted, and the demand transmission was slow. In addition, the cost support given to the silicone DMC by the downward trend of the raw material market was also looser than earlier. Since late May, the focus of the silicone DMC continued to decline. Under the insufficient effective support, the silicone DMC market fell all the way to the end of 2022, as of December 2, The low end price of silicone DMC market has fallen below 17000 yuan/ton, a 34.34% drop compared with the beginning of the year.

 

Prediction and analysis of silicone DMC market in 2023

 

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At present, 2022 is nearing the end, and the macro news has brought some positive support to the market. However, there are still some uncertain factors in the market. Due to the logistics and transportation restrictions in some regions, the silicone DMC factory is still slow to destocking as a whole, and destocking is still the main intention of the factory.

 

On the cost side, the current raw material metal silicon is weak, but the overall market price is still above 20000 yuan/ton, so the cost of silicone DMC is still under pressure. Near the end of the year, the silicone DMC market is still in a dilemma of rising and falling.

 

In 2023, at the beginning of the Spring Festival, the organic silicon DMC market may usher in the downstream stage of stock preparation. With the increase of demand, the market may recover slightly.

 

In the long run, in 2023, the production capacity of silicone monomer in some parts of China will increase. It is estimated that the production capacity of silicone market will still be on the high side in 2023, and the pressure brought to the market by the production capacity cannot be underestimated.

 

However, the current silicone DMC market price has been at a low point in the past three years. Therefore, despite the contradiction between supply and demand, it is expected that the monomer plants will continue to fall sharply in 2023, and it will take time to verify whether the current market can really usher in a bottoming rebound. It is expected that in the first quarter of 2023, the silicone DMC market will mainly adjust its operation after a small rise, Perhaps the top-down reform of the silicone DMC industry chain is coming quietly in 2023.

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