According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of acetic acid in East China was 5070 yuan / ton on May 13. Compared with 4360 yuan / ton at the end of last week, it was increased by 710 yuan / ton, or 16.28%. As of May 13, the market price of acetic acid in various regions rose and fell as follows:

Region, May 7, May 13, Price rise and fall

South China, 4350 yuan / ton, 4700 yuan / ton, + three hundred and fifty

North China, 4000 yuan / ton, 4900 yuan / ton, + nine hundred

Shandong Province, 4000 yuan / ton, 4850 yuan / ton, + eight hundred and fifty

Jiangsu Province, 4350 yuan / ton, 4800 yuan / ton, + four hundred and fifty

Zhejiang Province, 4450 yuan / ton, 4900 yuan / ton, + four hundred and fifty

During the week, the acetic acid market rose strongly, and the manufacturer’s quotation rose continuously. After the May Day holiday, the acetic acid market hit the bottom and rebounded, and the price trend continued to rise sharply. In April, the market supply was strong and the demand was weak, resulting in the continuous decline of the price. Some factories even approached the cost line. In order to alleviate the shipping pressure, some manufacturers reduced the negative operation. During the May Day holiday, the supplier’s market released good news. Hebei Jiantao device was overhauled, and Nanjing Ineos was also in the overhauling state. The on-site supply was reduced, and the supplier intended to support the price, At the end of May Day, the quotations of manufacturers in various regions increased significantly. After the festival, the downstream heard the news and actively entered the market. At the same time, under the mentality of buying up and not buying down, it supported the rise of acetic acid prices all the way.

The market of upstream methanol is weak this week, and the market decline is obvious. In terms of spot, the production cost of methanol is weakened, the supply is relatively sufficient, the downstream demand is weak, and the market trading situation is poor. In order to maintain shipment, the price of methanol is weak and declining. As of May 13, the average price of methanol production enterprises in the week was reduced to 2643 yuan / ton, with a periodic decline of 3.73%.

In the downstream, the market of ethyl acetate rose sharply. In terms of enterprise commencement, the operating rate of manufacturers was lower than that before May Day. The main factories in Shandong were overhauled, the supply in North China was tightened, and the supply side was well supported. The price of ethyl acetate in North China rose sharply until the weekend, the downstream demand and procurement slowed down, and the market of ethyl acetate stabilized.

According to the acetic acid analyst of business society, the price of acetic acid increased greatly during the week, and the downstream gradually recovered to be stable after the active entry into the market in the early stage. At present, the purchase just needs to be followed up. In terms of market supply, the manufacturer’s shipment is smooth, there is no pressure on inventory, and the supply and demand is maintained in a relatively stable state. It is expected that the acetic acid Market in the short-term future will be stable and wait-and-see operation, and pay specific attention to the downstream purchase.

According to the data monitored by the business society, the PP market weakened this week, and the spot ex factory price of wire drawing brand decreased. As of May 13, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8710 yuan / ton, up or down – 0.57% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in the upstream, propylene rose after the festival driven by the shock rise of international crude oil, and the price rose this week. The downstream is cautious and purchases on demand. The game between cost support and demand side is expected to be dominated by propylene market or narrow range shock.

After the rise of propylene price, crude oil continued to fluctuate and rise, and PP cost side support was acceptable. In terms of supply, in the early stage, PP enterprises took the initiative to reduce the burden and reduce the supply side. This week, the industry load increased, the on-site supply returned to an abundant pattern, and the positive impact on the supply side weakened. Buyers have strong resistance to high price sources, light market trading, and the demand side is generally just in need of goods. After the reduction of spot price, there are some bargain hunting operations to build the bottom of PP price. In addition, the impact of domestic health events is still ongoing, and the logistics and shipment in some areas are still not smooth. Under the game of supply and demand, the spot market fell.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business society, as of May 13, the spot price of domestic fiber PP rebounded after rising. The mainstream offer price of domestic manufacturers and traders Z30S (fiber) is about 8950 yuan / ton. Compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, the rise and fall range is + 0.37%, with a year-on-year decrease of – 0.37%. The main downstream non-woven fabric enterprises of PP fiber materials reduced their operation by a narrow margin, and the terminal enterprises took goods to maintain production, and the rigid demand support weakened. The health incident affected shipments in some areas, increased transportation resistance and put pressure on enterprise inventory. The demand for medical fiber is expected to be abundant, and the supply of medical fiber is expected to be sufficient in the short term.

In terms of meltblown materials, the meltblown PP market fell this week. As of May 13, the average quotation of domestic meltblown material sample enterprises monitored by the business society was about 10033.33 yuan / ton, up or down by – 2.59% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month. In terms of international health events, the current situation in various countries is still not optimistic. The number of confirmed cases in China has gradually decreased, the epidemic prevention pressure has eased, and the demand for medical meltblown cloth materials has decreased. The supply of meltblown materials in the market is generally sufficient, and the saturation of domestic meltblown materials and cloth enterprises is high. Together with the shipping resistance, the increase of meltblown materials is suppressed. It is expected that the recent market of melt blown PP may maintain weak operation.

Future forecast

PP analysts of business agency believe that the domestic polypropylene market is generally weak this week, the raw material propylene market is callback after the rise, the international crude oil fluctuates and rises, and the cost support is OK. The demand of terminal enterprises remains weak and bargain hunting. The business mentality is not strong, and the operation is biased towards price reduction and order taking. The fluency of freight transportation in some regions is not ideal, and the long and short are tangled. It is expected that the recent PP market may have a limited decline.

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of May 12, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial grade dimethyl carbonate is 5100 yuan / ton. Compared with May 1, 2022 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate is 4900 yuan / ton), the price is increased by 200 yuan / ton, or 4.08%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business society that after the labor day in May, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market was consolidated and operated as a whole. This week, on the 10th of the week, affected by the uncertain downstream demand, some factories in Shandong still had the demand for destocking, and the ex factory price of dimethyl carbonate was reduced by a narrow range of 100 yuan / ton. Other factories supported by the high cost of raw material propylene oxide and maintained stable quotation. 11. On the 12th, dimethyl carbonate finally ushered in a rebound market, and the downstream demand increased. In addition to the support given by the cost side, the offer of dimethyl carbonate factory increased steadily, with an increase range of about 100-300 yuan / ton. As of the 12th, the ex factory price of domestic dimethyl carbonate was around 5000-5300 yuan / ton. At present, the overall trading atmosphere of dimethyl carbonate has improved, and the mentality of the industry has warmed up.

In terms of upstream propylene oxide, the market price of propylene oxide in Shandong was temporarily stable on May 11, flat compared with the previous trading day, and decreased by 3.04% compared with the price on April 11. At present, the price of raw material propylene is weak, the price of liquid chlorine is rising, the pressure on the cost side remains, most of the devices in the field operate at a slightly low load, and the supply side is reduced, but the demand side is cold, the enthusiasm for inquiry and procurement is general, and the focus of market negotiation is temporarily stable. It is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market may be stable.

Future trend analysis

At present, the atmosphere in the dimethyl carbonate field has picked up, and the downstream demand side has been steadily opened. The dimethyl carbonate datagrapher of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market is mostly stable, medium and strong, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the news changes on the supply and demand side.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 4215.00 yuan / ton on May 1 and 4110.00 yuan / ton on May 7, with a decline of 2.49% and an increase of 8.62% compared with March 1.

As of May 7, the domestic market prices of dimethyl ether in various regions are as follows:

Region, Mainstream quotation

Jiangxi Province, 4300 yuan / ton

Hebei Province, 4320 yuan / ton

Henan Province, 4060-4110 yuan / ton

After May Day, the overall trend of domestic dimethyl ether Market is weak, the market in Henan is weak first and then strong, the decline is greater than the increase, and the market prices in Shandong and Hebei fluctuate in a narrow range. Affected by poor shipment during the holiday, the market price of dimethyl ether in Henan fell first and then stabilized, and the focus shifted downward. The market improved after the festival. In addition, the price of raw material methanol and liquefied gas in the civil market increased narrowly after the festival, which gave a certain boost to the dimethyl ether Market. The manufacturer’s mentality was strong and the price increased slightly.

On May 7, the ex factory quotation of methanol enterprises in Shandong increased. The negotiated price of methanol in Jining was around 2740-2760 yuan / ton. The factory offered cash exchange, and Linyi received local goods for negotiation. The reference price was around 2830-2850 yuan / ton and sent to cash exchange. The trading atmosphere in the market turned pale. The methanol market negotiation in Dongying, Shandong Province is 2730-2750 yuan / ton, which is delivered to cash exchange. The transaction is light, and most of them wait and see. The transaction of methanol market in Zibo, Shandong Province was about 2740-2760 yuan / ton, which was sent to cash exchange. The ex factory cash exchange of local factories increased slightly to 2900-2950 yuan / ton, and the transaction was flat.

At present, the civil price of raw material methanol market and related products liquefied gas is relatively strong, which brings some support to the market. However, with the end of replenishment after the festival in the downstream, the market trading atmosphere has weakened, and the continuous rise of the market is insufficient. It is expected that the price of dimethyl ether market may be stable and down in the short term.

Cobalt prices fell sharply after the festival

According to the data monitoring of business society, the cobalt market continued its decline since March after the festival, and the cobalt price fell sharply. As of May 10, the average price of cobalt was 524200 yuan / ton, down 2.93% from 540000 yuan / ton on May 1 at the beginning of the month; Compared with the cobalt price of 575200 yuan / ton on March 8, it fell by 8.87%. The supply and demand of the cobalt market were both weak, and the cobalt price continued its decline in March.

Tesla increases the layout of battery materials

In Tesla’s 2021 impact report, Tesla announced that the company’s battery material recovery will increase to 1500 tons of nickel, 300 tons of copper and 200 tons of cobalt in 2021. Tesla and other major automobile enterprises have made greater efforts to lay out battery material recycling, making up for the insufficient supply of cobalt raw materials and alleviating the pressure of rising cobalt prices.

Four departments strengthened commodity market supervision and price monitoring and early warning

The national development and Reform Commission and other four departments issued a notice on the key work of cost reduction in 2022. The notice proposed to strengthen the supply and price stability of important raw materials and primary products. We will continue to ensure the supply and price of energy and important raw materials, and ensure the people’s livelihood and the normal production and operation of enterprises. Strengthen the connection between production and demand of raw materials and promote the connection and linkage between upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. We will further strengthen the supervision of the commodity market and strengthen the monitoring and early warning of commodity prices. The state has strengthened the supervision and price monitoring of the bulk commodity market, weakened the hype of bulk commodity prices in the future, seriously evaporated water in the domestic cobalt market, and the cobalt price is expected to return to stability.

Sales of new energy vehicles fell month on month in April

According to the data of the Travel Association, the retail sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles reached 282000 in April, with a year-on-year increase of 78.4% and a month on month decrease of 36.5%. The sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles decreased month on month, the demand expectation of cobalt Market decreased, the support for the rise of cobalt price weakened, and the pressure on the decline of cobalt price increased.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at business news agency, believes that cobalt prices fell sharply after the festival. The main reasons are that the sharp decline in the price of cobalt salt makes the price of metal cobalt follow the decline, the state has strengthened its monitoring of commodity prices, and the speculation heat of cobalt market has weakened. Affected by the epidemic situation and traffic control in Shanghai, the sales volume of new energy vehicles fell sharply month on month in April, the demand of cobalt market was poor, the effect of resumption of production and work in the automobile industry was less than expected, the demand growth of cobalt market was insufficient, the supply was relatively stable, and the pressure on the decline of cobalt price increased. In the future, there is still strong demand in the cobalt market, the space for the decline of cobalt price is limited, the demand is less than expected, and the downward pressure of cobalt price still exists. It is expected that the future cobalt price will fluctuate and adjust at about 500000 yuan / ton.

After the festival, DOTP prices rose first and then fell

According to the data monitoring of the business society, the DOTP price rose first and then fell after the festival, and the overall DOTP market was strong and stable. As of May 9, the price of DOTP was 12112.50 yuan / ton, up 1.36% from 11950 yuan / ton on May 1 at the beginning of the month. After the festival, the downstream replenishment increased, the DOTP price rose first and then fell, and the DOTP market stabilized.

After the holiday, the price of isooctanol rose first and then fell

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic isooctanol market rose first and then fell after the festival. As of May 9, the price of isooctanol was 12666.67 yuan / ton, up 2.7% from May 1 at the beginning of the month. After the festival, the replenishment of downstream enterprises increased, the delivery of isooctanol enterprises increased, downstream customers purchased actively, and the price of isooctanol rose sharply. With the end of replenishment, the price of isooctanol fell rapidly, and the overall isooctanol market stabilized. The price of isooctanol rose first and then fell, the cost of DOTP fluctuated and stabilized, and the driving force for the rise of DOTP price still exists.

PTA prices rose after the festival

According to the price monitoring of business society, PTA prices first rose and then fell after the festival, and the overall PTA market fell from a high level. As of May 9, PTA prices were 6548.18 yuan / ton, up 1.88% from 6427.27 yuan / ton on May 1. The crude oil price is adjusted at a high level, the PTA price is adjusted at a high level after the festival, the DOTP cost support remains, the positive driving force of DOTP remains, and the downward pressure is weakened.

Future expectations

According to DOTP data analysts of business agency, the crude oil price is adjusted at a high level, PTA price fluctuates and rises, customer replenishment increases after the festival, isooctanol prices rise first and then fall, overall DOTP costs rise and DOTP prices rise. In the future, after the replenishment, the prices of PTA and isooctanol fell, the cost of DOTP raw materials fell, and the downward pressure of DOTP increased. It is expected that the price of DOTP will stabilize after a slight decline in the future.

From April 29 to May 5, 2022, the market price of antimony ingots in East China temporarily stabilized after falling. The price was 81000 yuan / ton last weekend and 81000 yuan / ton this weekend, flat.

The K-bar chart of commodity price uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investment according to the changes of K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. As can be seen from the above figure, the recent upward trend of the antimony ingot Market around the Spring Festival entered a stable period after the middle of March, entered a downward channel in the middle of April, and the decline slowed down at the end of April.

Price of strategic small metal antimony in Europe this week (unit: USD / ton)

varieties., April 29, May 7, Rise and fall

European small metal antimony, 15200.,14800.,- four hundred

This week, the price of strategic small metal antimony in Europe continued to decline, reaching US $14800 / ton on May 7, with a weekly reduction of US $400 / ton. Industry insiders said that the recent reduction of overseas orders was obvious and the overall trading was weak.

The decline in the antimony ingot Market slowed down this week. The week coincided with the May Day holiday, and the actual trading days were limited, so the price trend tended to be stable as a whole. However, according to the current market situation, the antimony ingot is still in the trend of shock decline. At present, the transportation situation in most parts of China has eased to some extent, but it still has a certain impact on the market. The recent construction in the main domestic production areas is low, which is mainly affected by the shortage of raw materials and passively reduced production, And the specific resumption time is not available for the time being. Affected by the production reduction in some areas in the downstream, the overall commencement is limited, and the demand for antimony ingots slows down. Most of them maintain on-demand procurement, affecting the demand for antimony ingots and the market mentality. Under the influence of the weak overall trading in the upstream and downstream, it is expected that the antimony ingot Market will remain stable and weak after the festival, and the price will continue to be adjusted slightly.

Relevant information:

Guizhou Province issued the “14th five year plan” for heavy metal pollution prevention and control to solicit opinions from the public: in order to further promote the “14th five year plan” for heavy metal pollution prevention and control, Guizhou Provincial Department of ecological environment drafted the “14th five year plan” for heavy metal pollution prevention and control in Guizhou Province (Draft for comments) (hereinafter referred to as the “plan”), and now solicits opinions from the public. The deadline for public consultation is 18:00 on May 19, 2022. The plan clearly puts forward three prevention and control priorities: 1) key heavy metal pollutants. The key heavy metal pollutants to be prevented and controlled are lead, mercury, cadmium, chromium, arsenic, thallium and antimony, and the total amount of five key heavy metal pollutants such as lead, mercury, cadmium, chromium and arsenic shall be controlled. 2) Key industries. It includes six industries: Mining and beneficiation of heavy non-ferrous metals (mining and beneficiation of copper, lead-zinc, nickel cobalt, tin, antimony and mercury), smelting of heavy non-ferrous metals (smelting of copper, lead-zinc, nickel cobalt, tin, antimony and mercury), lead battery manufacturing, electroplating industry, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing (calcium carbide (poly) vinyl chloride manufacturing, chromium salt manufacturing, zinc inorganic compound industry with industrial solid waste as raw material), leather tanning and processing industry. 3) Key areas. Hezhang County of Bijie City is the key area of heavy metal pollution prevention and control in the 14th five year plan. Among the key tasks, the plan proposes to strengthen the supervision and law enforcement of heavy metal pollution, and requires to strengthen the monitoring and early warning of heavy metal pollution. Local ecological and environmental departments shall install automatic monitoring systems for thallium, antimony and other characteristic heavy metal pollutants based on automatic water quality monitoring stations in the downstream of thallium and antimony related industrial enterprises or areas with dense solid waste distribution.

The first large-scale mining project in Tajikistan was put into operation: on April 14, the Kangqiao Qi antimony gold mine project of China Tajikistan joint venture – Tajikistan aluminum and gold industry was completed and put into operation. It is expected that the annual ore processing capacity will be 1.5 million tons, with an annual output of 16000 metal tons of antimony and 2.2 metal tons of gold ingots. At present, the controllable antimony resources of Huayu mining industry have reached 434600 metal tons, and the annual output of antimony ore is about 21000 tons, accounting for nearly 15% of the global supply.

According to the data monitoring of business society, as of May 6, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in the mainstream areas of China was around 786 yuan / ton. Compared with May 1 (the reference price of phosphate rock was 763 yuan / ton), the price increased by 23 yuan / ton, or 3.15%, and 46 yuan / ton, or 6.31%, compared with April 1 (the reference price of phosphate rock was 740 yuan / ton).

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business society that during the May Day Labor Day, the domestic phosphorus ore market was consolidated and operated at a high level as a whole, and returned after the festival. On the 5th, the phosphorus ore market in some parts of China rose again. The main support for the continued close of the phosphorus ore market to the high end came from the tight supply of mines. At present, the supply of some mines in Guizhou is tight, and the external quotation is suspended, Some mining enterprises in Hebei also continue to supply shareholders and contract users, and there is no external supply source for the time being. Therefore, the quotation of available supply sources in the phosphate rock quarry continues to move closer to the high end, and the market focus moves upward. As of June 6, the market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in Guizhou was around 750-820 yuan / ton, and the market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in Guangxi was around 750-790 yuan / ton. At present, the downstream demand of domestic phosphorus ore market is stable, and the trading atmosphere on the site is mild.

In terms of downstream yellow phosphorus, during May Day, the domestic yellow phosphorus Market operated smoothly and returned after the festival. The yellow phosphorus Market as a whole ushered in an upward operation. On May 5, the reference price of yellow phosphorus was 36833.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.91% compared with May 1 (36500.00 yuan / ton).

Prediction and analysis of future trend of phosphate rock

At present, the tight supply situation in the domestic phosphorus ore market continues, and the voice is mostly dominated on the supply side. The phosphorus ore data division of business society believes that in the short term, China’s domestic phosphorus ore market is mostly dominated by high-level consolidation and operation, and more attention needs to be paid to the news changes of supply and demand.

Domestic price trend:

As can be seen from the p-xylene trend chart, the price trend of p-xylene declined in April. As of the end of the month, the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 8900 yuan / ton, down 4.3% from the price of 9300 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, up 39.06% year-on-year. The price trend of domestic PX market declined in April.

In April, the domestic supply of p-xylene was normal, the domestic PX operating rate was more than 60%, the 600000 ton unit of Sinochem Hongrun Petrochemical operated stably, the Yangzi petrochemical unit operated stably, the Pengzhou petrochemical unit operated stably, the Yangzi Petrochemical PX unit operated normally, the Jinling Petrochemical unit operated stably, the Qingdao Lidong unit operated at full load, the Qilu petrochemical unit operated stably, and the Urumqi petrochemical unit started at about 50%, The domestic supply of p-xylene is normal, but the operation of overseas units is general, and the domestic price of p-xylene declines due to the impact of crude oil shock. In April, the trend of international crude oil prices fell, and the external price of PX fell. As of the 28th, the closing price was 1150-1152 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 1168-1170 US dollars / ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX units in Asia is normal. On the whole, the operating rate of p-xylene units in Asia is less than 60%, the supply of PX goods in Asia is general, the closing price of PX outside the market fell slightly, and the domestic market price of p-xylene fell.

In April, the international crude oil price fluctuated sharply. On the whole, the crude oil price rose by 5.07%. The crude oil price experienced a sharp rise and fall. As of the end of the month, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $105.36/barrel and that of Brent crude oil futures was $107.26/barrel. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to evolve, and it is unlikely to end the war in the short term. Western sanctions against Russia continue to increase. Since the United States imposed an oil embargo on Russia, whether EU Member States imposed an oil embargo on Russia has become the most concerned issue in the market. From the perspective of current crude oil fundamentals, the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine will exacerbate the expectation of tightening oil supply in the future under the background of continuing to disturb the market. In addition, in terms of other supply factors, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has continued the gradual and small increase in production policy, which will stabilize the tightening of crude oil supply, with little effect. The OPEC monthly meeting may be held on May 5. Considering the interest binding between OPEC and its Russian allies, the possibility of policy change is small, and the market generally expects that there is a high possibility of a small increase in production in June. On the whole, the crude oil price rose in April, the original high p-xylene rose sharply in the early stage, and a rational correction was made in April.

In April, the price trend of downstream PTA market rose. As of the 29th, the average price of PTA market was 6400-6450 yuan / ton, up 6.09% in April. Recently, domestic PTA plant restart and maintenance coexisted. Fuhai Chuang 4.5 million tons reduced the load to 50% in early April and began to increase the load on April 26. The 1.2 million ton PTA unit of Zhongtai Petrochemical was overhauled on March 25 and restarted around April 29. 1.2 million tons of hailun Petrochemical stopped on April 26, and the restart time is to be determined. One million tons of chuanneng chemical stopped on April 13 and is planned to restart around mid May. On the whole, the supply is still shrinking, and the operating load of corresponding PTA enterprises is still maintained at a low level. At present, the operating rate of PTA industry is 73%. With the gradual easing of the problem of poor logistics and the gradual resumption of work and production, the comprehensive startup rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has increased to around 57%. It is expected that the process of logistics recovery and resumption of work and production will be accelerated in the future, resulting in a certain degree of destocking of polyester industry chain inventory from bottom to top. The smooth flow of orders and good transfer drive the destocking of finished products. The downstream market is good for the domestic p-xylene Market, but the previous price of p-xylene is high, and the manufacturer reduces the price slightly.

Chen Ling, PX analyst of business society, believes that there is a certain supporting impact on the current crude oil cost. In addition, the commencement of polyester manufacturers in the downstream of the terminal market has improved, and the PTA price trend has risen. It is expected that the market price trend of p-xylene will remain stable in the later stage, and there is no lack of room for rise.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of carbide SG5), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream was 8700 yuan / ton on April 29, down 3.76% from the beginning of the month and 2.93% from the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In April, the demand for PVC was not high, and the market fluctuated downward, which was generally divided into down flat down price trend, with a decrease of 3.76% in the month. At the end of the Qingming Festival holiday in the first ten days of the year, the futures rose and fell, dampening market sentiment, and the spot price fell. In addition, the raw material calcium carbide fell and the cost support fell. At the same time, public health events affected transportation and the price of PVC fell. In the middle of the year, the good news of real estate boosted the PVC market and kept a narrow range of consolidation. In the latter half of the year, the logistics was still limited, the downstream enterprises started to decline, the purchasing enthusiasm decreased, and only the demand for replenishment just needed was maintained. The enthusiasm for goods preparation before the festival was insufficient, and the PVC enterprises continued to decline. At present, the price of raw calcium carbide is stable at about 3900-4100 yuan / ton, and the quotation range of domestic pvc5 calcium carbide enterprises is mostly around 8450-8950 yuan / ton. The quotation of Formosa Plastics fell sharply in May. CFR India reported 80 yuan to 1560, CFR China dropped 50 to 1340, and CER Northeast Asia dropped 50 to 1410.

According to the weekly rise and fall from January 31, 2022 to April 24, 2022, it can be seen that domestic PVC rises and falls in the cycle. The maximum rise is in the week of February 7 and the maximum decline is in the week of February 21. There has been little fluctuation recently.

Region, workmanship 4 / 29 (yuan / ton), 4 / 1 (yuan / ton) ., Up and down, remarks

East China, Calcium carbide method, 8750-8850., 9150-9500., – 400/-650., Ex warehouse

South China, Calcium carbide method ., 8800-8950., 9250-9500., – 450/-550., Ex warehouse

North China, Calcium carbide method, 8700-8750., 9200-9300., – 500/-550., Deliver

southwest., Calcium carbide method, 8650-8950., 9150-925 0., – 500/-300., Deliver

For international crude oil, the crude oil price fluctuated in April and rebounded after the recent decline. Investors weighed the impact of the epidemic situation and anti epidemic blockade measures in some Asian countries and regions on the prospects of economic growth and energy demand, as well as the expectation of tightening energy supply caused by the Russian Ukrainian war, and the oil price rebounded.

Ethylene, the external ethylene market fluctuated and fell in April. Asian ethylene market prices fell. As of the 27th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $1276-1286 / ton and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $1326-1336 / ton. European ethylene market prices fell sharply. As of the 27th, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1890-1900 / ton and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1455-1463 / ton. The price of ethylene in the United States fluctuated and fell. As of the 27th, the price was 593-612 yuan / ton. In April, the external ethylene market basically fell, the market turnover was poor, and the market continued to decline..

Calcium carbide, in late April, the market of calcium carbide may fluctuate and fall in a narrow range. The price of raw material blue carbon fell slightly, the cost support of calcium carbide weakened, the downstream PVC market showed a downward trend, and the downstream demand weakened. In the future, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate and fall in a narrow range in late April.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of business society believe that the fundamentals were weak in April and the PVC fluctuated downward. In May, the spring inspection enterprises were more concentrated, and there were positive effects on the supply side, which may bring vitality to the PVC market. We also need to pay attention to the recovery of downstream demand.