1、 Price trend

The comprehensive price of potassium chloride rose this week. This week, the average price of mainstream comprehensive quotation of potassium chloride increased by 6.41% from 1950.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2075.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week. Overall, the market of potassium chloride rose this week, and the commodity index of potassium chloride on November 6 was 65.87.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the mainstream manufacturers’ quotation of potassium chloride rose slightly: the ex factory offer of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride was 1950 yuan / ton at the weekend, which was 100 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; the marketing quotation of Anhui Badou potassium chloride at the weekend was 2200 yuan / ton, which was 150 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week. The actual turnover of potassium chloride market this week is not good. Overall, the main contradiction in the market is that supply exceeds demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, the downstream procurement is mainly on demand, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable.

3、 Future forecast

In mid November, the overall trend of potassium chloride market or low consolidation. The market of potassium chloride is facing the pressure of three mountains, namely, the large stock in Hong Kong, the weak demand and the downward trend of international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the current market is that supply exceeds demand. Potassium chloride analysts of the business club believe that the short-term potassium chloride market is mainly low consolidation under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s big list data, aniline this week big steady small move. In East China, the price of aniline is 6700-6800 yuan / day in East China, and the price of aniline in East China is 6700-6800 yuan / day.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, at the beginning of the week, the decline continued last week, and pure benzene in Shandong continued to fall. On Wednesday, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene increased by 150 yuan / ton to 3750 yuan / ton, with stronger support at the bottom. In addition, the downstream styrene continued to rise strongly, driving the price of pure benzene to rise rapidly. On this Sunday (November 8), the listed price of pure benzene was 3590-3800 yuan / ton (the average price was 3710 yuan / ton), up 135 yuan / ton or 3.78% compared with last week.

This week, nitric acid prices stabilized. On Friday (November 6), the production price of nitric acid in East China was 1616.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week.

Huatai, Tianji aniline plant is expected to restart, aniline enterprises mainly wait and see in the week, the price is stable and small.

3、 Future expectations

In terms of cost, the short-term downstream styrene market is still upward, but pure benzene chase up sentiment weakened. In addition, the port inventory of pure benzene is high, and the fundamentals are weak. Next week, the price of pure benzene may be slightly reduced. Pay attention to the planned parking of the downstream in the near future, and the demand may decrease.

The restart of Huatai plant is delayed. At present, the overall spot supply of aniline Market is not high, and the price of aniline is expected to be stable in the short term.

According to statistics, the trend of domestic p-xylene ex factory price was temporarily stable this week, with an average price of 4300 yuan / ton at the weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with the price of 4300 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year decrease of 36.76%.

The domestic PX operating rate is about 60%. The operation of Hongrun 600000 ton new unit is stable, Huizhou refining and chemical plant is stable, fuhaichuang plant is on the first line, Pengzhou petrochemical plant is running stably, Yangzi Petrochemical PX unit is running normally, Jinling Petrochemical plant is running smoothly, Qingdao Lidong unit is operating at full load, Qilu Petrochemical plant is running stably The start-up of Urumqi petrochemical plant is about 50%, and Hainan refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. has started a production line. Hengli petrochemical plant is in normal operation, the domestic p-xylene supply is normal, and the domestic p-xylene market price trend is temporarily stable. This week, the operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 70%, and the supply of PX goods is sufficient in Asia. This week, the trend of PX external price will fall. As of the end of the week, the closing price of PX market in Asian region is 502-504 USD / T FOB Korea and 520-522 USD / T CFR China. This week, the trend of PX external price declines, and more than 40% of domestic products need to be imported, and the closing price of PX external market is lower The domestic market brought a certain negative impact, domestic PX market price maintained a low level.

This week, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market price fell mainly. As of the 5th, the settlement price of the main contract in the US WTI crude oil futures market was at US $38.79/barrel, while the settlement price of the main contract in Brent crude oil futures market was at $40.93/barrel. The oil price fell slightly, mainly because the market focus returned to concerns about the epidemic situation and the impact of the economic slowdown on fuel demand The downward trend of international crude oil price is a negative impact on domestic petrochemical products, and the price trend of domestic p-xylene market is temporarily stable.

This week, the price trend of downstream PTA market dropped sharply. As of the end of the weekend, the PTA Market in East China had been negotiated to be around 3150-3250 yuan. Recently, the starting load of PTA industry was 86%. The recent drop of crude oil price and the expectation of new production capacity put into operation affected the PTA market price to drop sharply. Downstream polyester market is weak, production and sales are light. Raw materials follow crude oil price changes, polyester Market wait-and-see atmosphere increases, demand is general. Inventory continued to rise, polyester market overall inventory concentrated in 33-41 days; specific products, POY inventory to 12-18 days, FDY inventory to 23-35 days, and DTY inventory to 31-44 days. Factory prices are weak, and some factories negotiate on a preferential basis. The downstream market is not improved, and PX price trend is temporarily stable.

On the whole, the demand of textile industry has not improved significantly, the order performance is not stable, and the terminal demand is poor. For upstream Px, on-demand procurement is the main factor, and the price trend of PX market is stable.

Chen Ling, PX analyst of business agency, thinks that the recent trend of crude oil price has declined, and the operating rate of downstream textile enterprises is general, PTA market price has fallen sharply, domestic PX market supply is normal, and it is expected that PX market price will remain stable next week.

When the East China market opened in the morning on the 4th, 5300-5350 yuan / ton became the mainstream market, and it was heard that lower prices were still traded in the market (for reference only). The 5300 yuan / ton phenol market basically reached the downstream acceptable purchase price, followed by downstream factories asking for orders and interested in purchasing, and the enthusiasm of intermediate traders was also rising. In the afternoon, with the follow-up of downstream demand, the market was in a state of high enthusiasm With the increase of 50-150 yuan / ton, the afternoon offer has risen to 5400 yuan / ton. The low offer price in the morning does not exist. Although the enthusiasm of industry participation has not been fully released, the trading volume has improved. As of the end of the 4th, the mainstream offer of petrochemical plants in China was 5550 yuan / ton. Among them, the offer in East China market is 5350-5400 yuan / ton, that in Shandong and surrounding areas of Yanshan is 5500-5550 yuan / ton, and that in South China is 5430-5480 yuan / ton.

Trend chart of phenol average price in national market

Trend chart of phenol commodity index in East China (factory offer)

From the upstream point of view, the price of raw material pure benzene rose sharply, which was mainly affected by the strong crude oil futures. Under the influence of the sharp rise of styrene price in the downstream of pure benzene, the pure benzene opened at a high level, and the Sinopec factory added 150 yuan / ton. It is understood that the mainstream negotiation in Shandong area was 3400-3450 yuan / ton, and the raw material propylene also showed a strong trend. On November 4, the propylene market in Shandong Province rose significantly, and propylene on November 1 Since November, there has been a correction in the price. Since November, the price has risen by 150-200 yuan / ton. At present, the market turnover is between 6700-7150 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6850 yuan / ton. At present, the shipment situation of the manufacturer is better than that in the earlier stage. And propylene experienced a sharp decline in the last month, the short-term propene gradually warming to become the main tone.

From the downstream demand side, the bisphenol a market entered November with a broad upward trend. The mainstream offers of factories were at 13500 yuan / ton, and the mainstream negotiations in East China and North China were also around 13300 yuan / ton. At present, the supply of goods in the market is limited, there is no pressure on the inventory, and the attitude of the shippers is positive. Although it is difficult to digest the downstream market after the price rise, the transaction price of some rigid demand markets is obviously high, and the market low price is hard to find.

From the perspective of business agencies, the resistance of shippers has weakened, and the low-end price of offer does not exist. The focus is obviously on the upward trend. Although some upstream and downstream products show a positive trend, the operation of the operators is still very cautious. The business association predicts that the performance of the phenol market in Jinjiu yinshixia is not good. Throughout the whole year, it is also fluctuating in the deadlock, which has been offset again after November It is still necessary to actively observe the market situation, and it is estimated that the overall negotiation space is 5400-5450 yuan / ton.

According to the data of the business club, since November, the domestic adipic acid has continued the rising trend in October, and the increase is increasingly fierce. According to the data monitored by the business agency, the growth rate of adipic acid in East China has reached 5.75% from November 2 to 4, which is mainly due to the shortage of market supply, the sharp increase of upstream cost, the continuous rise of pure benzene price, and the improvement of downstream PA66 market The rise was also boosted by speculation by dealers. According to the monitoring of business agency, the current quotation range of adipic acid in the market is 7200-7700 yuan / ton, which has increased by 500 yuan / ton compared with the end of October.

From the perspective of market supply, since October, the operating rate of adipic acid manufacturers has been declining, and there is no lack of equipment maintenance in large plants. At present, the operating rate is about 70%. The situation of supply shortage has been aggravated in November.

Market trend of pure benzene

In terms of cost, although the upstream crude oil price mainly maintains the range adjustment, and currently falls below the $40 range, pure benzene has risen sharply since October, with an increase of more than 10% in the second half of October (as shown in the figure above). Although pure benzene has decreased slightly in recent days, the cost transmission is lagging behind. This round of adipic acid rise is also the effect of price increase of upstream raw materials.

PA66 market trend chart

In terms of downstream demand, the terminal performance is commendable. In the late stage of the epidemic, although the chemical industry rebounded steadily, the operating rate of downstream factories also increased. In addition, the rigid consumption of polyurethane in the downstream was stable, and the market of PA66 also showed a sustained upward trend, with an increase of 7.99% in October and no change in November. As of the 3rd, the growth rate of PA66 reached 2.65% in two trading days according to the monitoring of business agency. As shown in the figure above.

In the later stage, the business agency believes that the rise of adipic acid market, even if there is a deep-seated reason for the shortage of supply and demand, there is no lack of merchants’ speculation, and the quotation of dealers is also chaotic, and the difference between high and low prices is more than 1000 yuan / ton. According to the reaction of relevant people in the market, there is no transaction at high price. At present, the increase of adipic acid has a certain amount of water. The maintenance of the price in the later stage depends on whether the demand can keep up with it, With the winter approaching, the downstream operating rate may decline. Due to the influence of environmental protection and other factors, adipic acid will continue to rise, with limited space.

After entering the traditional “silver ten”, propane peak season effect is obvious, after the festival began to push up continuously, the center of gravity continued to move up. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average price of propane Market on October 8 was 3277.50 yuan / ton, and that on October 31 was 3845.00 yuan / ton, with an increase of 17.32% in the month and a decrease of 3.27% compared with the same period last year.

The peak season of propane Market in 2020 is a little later than that in previous years. The traditional peak season should be “gold nine and silver ten”. This year, the “gold nine” propane market did not rise as expected, but the “silver ten” did not live up to expectations and ushered in a big rise. This rise is also reasonable. After the festival, propane rose significantly, and the atmosphere of market transaction was positive. With the introduction of CP in October, propane and butane increased to varying degrees. In addition, the international crude oil rose significantly on the first day after the festival, the cost of imported gas was high, and there were many favorable factors, which promoted the upward trend of propane. In October, the weather and temperature dropped significantly, especially in the northern market, and the terminal demand increased. The lower reaches have a strong bullish attitude towards the future market, and have a positive market entry atmosphere. Refinery mentality is firm, continuously increase factory prices, inventory is mostly in low level.

This wave of upward trend continued until October 27. Most of the ex factory prices in Shandong market have risen to more than 3800 yuan / ton, and the quoted prices of some refineries have reached 4000 yuan / ton. In the international market, the high import cost has brought support to the market. Moreover, the weather continues to cool down, the terminal demand is improved, and the downstream replenishment cycle is shortened, which brings obvious benefits to the market. In terms of supply, domestic refineries partially overhauled in October, and the market supply decreased, which also brought some support to the market. The mentality of the downstream is good and the enthusiasm of entering the market is high. Manufacturers to ship smoothly, strong mentality, prices continue to push up.

Until the 28th of the end of the month, propane Market showed a small decline, and the international crude oil fell sharply at the end of the month, which significantly suppressed the propane Market. However, the cost of gas intake was high and the market support for the market was still not strong, so the decline was very limited. At the end of the month, with the CP price coming out of Taiwan in November, the propane butane rose sharply, and the market weakness returned to the upward channel only two days later.

As of October 31, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Regional specification October 30

Propane in East China,% (V / V) not less than: 95 3450-3800 yuan / ton

Propane in North China,% (V / V) not less than: 953860-3900 yuan / ton

Propane in Shandong area,% (V / V) not less than: 95 3700-3850 yuan / ton

Propane in South China,% (V / V) not less than: 95 3650-3750 yuan / ton

Propane in Central China,% (V / V) not less than: 953700-3950 yuan / ton

In October, the domestic propane Market as a whole showed an upward trend, and there was a small difference between the southern and northern markets. The temperature of the whole country has decreased in different ranges, and the northern market is more obvious. After entering October, the demand has increased greatly, and the price has been mainly pushed up continuously. The rise of the southern market was not as obvious as that of the northern market. During the period, some of them fell, but in the later period, as the weather continued to cool down, and under the influence of several typhoons, the demand gradually increased, and the market remained dominant in the later period.

International market: in November 2020, Saudi Aramco launched CP, with propane 430 USD / T, up 55 USD / T compared with last month; butane USD 440 / T, up USD 60 / T compared with last month. With the introduction of CP in November, the propylene butane all rose sharply, which supported the domestic market significantly.

At present, the port price continues to rise, and with the weather continues to cool down in the later period, the market demand is still expected to improve, and the downstream replenishment cycle is shortened, which is still good for the market. In addition, CP rose sharply in November to support the market mentality. However, at present, the weakness of international crude oil market still brings some restraint to the market upward. It is expected that the propane market will be dominated by horizontal consolidation in the short term, and it is still possible to rise in the long term.

Trade name: octanol

Latest price (November 2): 7283.33 yuan / ton

On November 2, the factory quotation of octanol in Shandong was temporarily stable, which was the same as that on October 30. The upstream propylene market continued to fall, the cost support weakened, the downstream DOP market rising power was insufficient, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was half, and the octanol supply was normal.

Recently, the factory price of octanol in Shandong Province has fluctuated slightly: the manufacturer’s quotation is about 7250 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend chart of nitric acid Market

Nitric acid price curve

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of nitric acid in East China this week was 1583 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 1616 yuan / ton at the weekend, with the quotation rising by 2.11%.

2、 Market analysis

Anhui Jinhe quoted 1650-1700 yuan / ton, 100 yuan / ton higher than last week; Shandong helitai Chemical Co., Ltd. offered 1800 yuan / T, which was flat compared with last time; Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. quoted 1400 yuan / T of concentrated nitric acid, which was flat compared with last time; Huainan Aodeli chemical products Sales Co., Ltd. quoted 1650 yuan / T of concentrated nitric acid, which was flat compared with last week; Wenshui Synthetic Chemical Co., Ltd The company quoted 1530 yuan / ton of concentrated nitric acid and 680 yuan / ton of dilute nitric acid. The price of concentrated nitric acid was flat compared with that of last week. The trading in nitric acid market was fair, and some manufacturers raised their prices, most of which remained stable.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the upstream product liquid ammonia increased by 0.52% this week; the downstream aniline was stable this week; and the downstream TDI fell 2.91%.

3、 Future forecast

Nitric acid market demand is stable, nitric acid analysts in business community predict that the price or stable operation.