Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the ex-factory price of hydrochloric acid in Shandong fell slightly this week. The quotation fell from 113.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 110.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, falling by 3.33 yuan/ton, or 2.94%, 12.00% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the hydrochloric acid market fell slightly this week, with the hydrochloric acid commodity index of 28.92 on August 9.

II. Market Analysis

(1) Products:

This week, the hydrochloric acid market manufacturers quoted slightly lower, the overall market low consolidation. Dezhou Shihua hydrochloric acid quotation is 100 yuan/ton, the quotation is temporarily stable; Wenshui synthetic hydrochloric acid quotation is 80 yuan/ton, the quotation is temporarily stable; Jinan Yuanfei hydrochloric acid quotation is 200 yuan/ton, the quotation is temporarily stable; Dezhou Meihua hydrochloric acid quotation is 50 yuan/ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation is 10 yuan/ton.

(2) Industrial chain:

The price of liquid chlorine in the upstream market is stable, which supports hydrochloric acid. The downstream dyes, calcium chloride and chloroethane still buy hydrochloric acid on demand in the early stage. The hydrochloric acid market as a whole is still weak. By-product acid shocks the market. The pressure of hydrochloric acid shipment is high. The quality of by-product hydrochloric acid produced by TDI, chloropropene, propylene oxide and methane chloride is relatively good. For the purpose of shipment, each manufacturer has the situation of inverted freight shipment. Overall, the difficulty of delivery of hydrochloric acid is still a major problem.

3. Future Market Forecast

After the adjustment in July, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the equipment has been repaired and the production capacity has increased. Business analysts believe that the upstream liquid chlorine is good in the near future, but the downstream demand for rare earth and fuel is still general, and by-product acid shocks the market. Business analysts believe that the late hydrochloric acid market is still more vulnerable to consolidation.

On August 7, WTI crude oil futures fell to $51.09 a barrel, or $2.54, while Brent crude oil futures fell to $56.23 a barrel, or $2.71 a barrel.

The U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) said Wednesday that EIA crude oil stocks increased by 2.385 million barrels in the week of August 2, with an expected decrease of 2.845 million barrels and a decrease of 8.496 million barrels in the pre-value. Among them, gasoline stocks increased by 4437,000 barrels, expected to decrease by 722,000 barrels, and the pre-value decreased by 1791,000 barrels; refined oil stocks increased by 1529,000 barrels, expected to increase by 482,000 barrels, and the pre-value decreased by 894,000 barrels. Crude oil stocks in Kuxin area decreased by 1.54 million barrels, recorded a decline for five consecutive weeks, with a pre-value decrease of 1.53 million barrels.

Last week, U.S. domestic crude oil production increased by 100,000 barrels to 12.3 million barrels per day, while crude oil exports decreased by 709,000 barrels per day to 1.865 million barrels per day. In a report, ING pointed out that “uncertainties about the outlook for crude oil demand continue to increase due to the deterioration of Global trade prospects. At the same time, the target price of crude oil in 2019 was lowered, and global oil supply is expected to exceed demand in the first half of next year under the influence of falling demand.

In the view of business associations, the Sino-US trade negotiations are in a long-term stalemate, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut is ready to be fulfilled, and the extension of Iran’s sanctions exemption suppresses market sentiment from macro and geopolitical aspects, while the weakening economy has long restrained the growth of crude oil demand and further suppressed the rebound of oil prices.

Price Trend

The domestic BDO market has a narrow upward margin. According to the sample data monitored by business associations, the domestic BDO market price at the beginning of the week was 9280 yuan/ton, and the average domestic BDO market price at the weekend was 9360 yuan/ton, with a 0.86% increase in the week and a 19.90% decrease over the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the domestic BDO market is going up narrowly. The price of raw material calcium carbide is high, the cost pressure is strong, and last weekend, because of the explosion of Yima plant, Kaixiang Henan carried out safety investigation, BDO device stopped, aggravating the market price mentality, some factories borrowed the opportunity to raise quotations, low-price supply reduced. Although the demand for PBT and PTMEG in the main downstream has not improved significantly, the enthusiasm of inquiries in the spot market has improved slightly compared with the earlier period, and the focus of discussion has moved up narrowly. Up to now, the mainstream price of East China market is 8500-8900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last week’s low end. This week, the domestic BDO market started at 47.9%, with a weekly output of about 19911 tons.

In terms of installation, this week, 110,000 tons/year BDO plant in Kaixiang, Henan Province, was stopped for safety checks due to the explosion of Yima, and the restart time was uncertain; 2 sets of 100,000 tons/year plant in Cathay Pacific, Xinjiang, planned to replace catalysts in the near future; 210,000 tons/year BDO plant in Tianye, Xinjiang, except for the normal operation of the first phase, other devices were not restarted for the time; The 10,000-ton/year BDO plant stopped for overhaul on June 20. It was heard that it restarted last week. The 80,000-ton/year BDO plant in Yizheng Dalian was overhauled from the end of June to the end of July. Phase I and II BDO units of Meike are running normally. Phase III stop for overhaul on July 2. On July 25, about 60% of Dongyuan 100,000 tons per year plant in Inner Mongolia is scheduled to start, and the overhaul plan is delayed.

On the market side, as of Friday (8.2), the BDO market in South China is running on the high side. Although some factories are scheduled to repair in August, after the restart of the pre-maintenance equipment, the load is gradually lifted, and the supply side is generally supported. Manufacturers have a strong market mentality, constrained by the downturn in demand, blocked by a large increase, narrow upward. The BDO market in East China is in high order. The manufacturer is in a strong market mentality, but the relaunch of the factory continues to lift the load, the support of the supply side is weakened, and the downstream market is still weak, it is difficult to push up sharply, and the center of gravity is slightly upward.

Industry chain: raw materials, calcium carbide, domestic calcium carbide market this week out of the regional increase, the actual factory turnover narrow decline, market wait-and-see atmosphere cautious. This week, the production of calcium carbide installations in Shaanxi has been improved and the supply has been enhanced. The supply of calcium carbide in Inner Mongolia has been increased due to the impact of supporting PVC maintenance. The transportation in Wuhai and Ningxia is under pressure and the dangerous vehicles are hard to find, which has slowed down the delivery speed and increased the inventory of some production enterprises. Limited electricity occurs from time to time in Wumeng area, resulting in regional disparities in carbide arrivals in Shandong, Hebei and Northeast China. Purchasing enterprises raise purchase prices to attract supply. In terms of raw materials, the price of middling blue charcoal has been stable, while the price of small charcoal has been declining. Affected by environmental pressure, the price of coal tar has been rising. The start-up rate of blue charcoal enterprises has been improved, and the stock of some enterprises has been under pressure. Methanol: The market of methanol fell this week. The mainstream price in Inner Mongolia is from 1700 yuan/ton to 1630 yuan/ton. Half of the shipments this week are from manufacturers, mostly filling empty lists. At present, manufacturers’inventories continue to increase and traders are not optimistic about the market next week. The mainstream price in Guanzhong this week ranged from 1810 yuan/ton to 1700 yuan/ton. Due to the weak downstream demand and the small number of transport vehicles, some orders are still issued. Due to the overhaul of Xianyang Chemistry and Shaanxi Weihua factories next week, there will be some support for the local market.

3. Future Market Forecast

The strong cost support, together with the explosion of Yima Gasification Plant, the safety investigation of Kaixiang plant parking, and the obstruction of transportation, the factory’s strong market mentality intensified, some factories increased their offer, some downstream spot markets entered the market to replenish warehouses, the enthusiasm of inquiry improved compared with the earlier period, just needed small units and high prices to conclude transactions, and the focus of negotiations increased narrowly. However, the main downstream demand has not shown signs of improvement, and there is a strong wait-and-see mood. BDO analysts of business associations expect that the domestic BDO market will digest the growth rate mainly next week, but they do not rule out a steady upward trend, focusing specifically on device dynamics and downstream demand changes.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the market price of aniline in Nanjing this week dropped 600 yuan/ton from last week, a drop of 9.23% compared with last week, while that in Shandong fell 230 yuan/ton from last week, a drop of 3.97%. The mainstream price in Shandong is 5570 yuan/ton, while that in Nanjing is 5900 yuan/ton.

II. Analytical Review

Raw material: Following last week’s weak market for pure benzene, this week, Sinochem’s pure benzene enterprises continued to reduce the price of pure benzene. Sinopec continued to bid at a high price of 5350 yuan per ton. Pure benzene port inventory continued to decline this week, but the downstream demand for pure benzene was insufficient to follow up, and market participants mostly held a wait-and-see attitude. Combined with the low price impact of hydrobenzene, the pure benzene in East China began to fall in the second half of the week, which exacerbated the price gap between Sinopec’s listed price and the spot price in East China.

Product: Benzene market weakened this week, aniline lost cost support. Moreover, the downstream demand is weak, the follow-up to aniline is insufficient, and the price of aniline has fallen sharply, with aniline falling by more than 9% in eastern China.

III. Future Market Expectations

At present, domestic demand for pure benzene is weak, and pure benzene is facing shipment pressure. In addition, the sudden drop in crude oil has created a negative stimulus to the mentality of the bulk market, and pure benzene is still expected to decline.

The hot weather, low start-up rate of downstream auxiliaries and dyes, weak demand for aniline and lack of support for the price of aniline. Aniline is expected to run weakly next week.

Price Trend

In July 2019, the domestic 1_antimony ingot Market shocked down. The average price of the domestic market was 39850 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 38900 yuan/ton at the end of the week, down by 2.38%.

The commodity index of antimony on July 31 was 54.15, down 0.21 points from yesterday, down 47.08% from the peak of 102.32 points in the cycle (2012-10-16), and up 15.26% from the low of 46.98 points on December 24, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2012-09-08 to date).

II. Market Analysis

Upstream and downstream: Antimony industry chain as a whole follows the trend of antimony ingots, antimony ore and antimony trioxide Market weakened this month, antimony trioxide: affected by the weak downstream demand, antimony trioxide market prices weakened as a whole until the end of the month 99.5% of domestic antimony trioxide quotation range in 33,000-34,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 33,500 yuan/ton; 99.8% of countries; The quotation range for antimony trioxide production is 3450-35500 yuan/ton with an average price of 35000 yuan/ton.

Domestic market: Antimony ingot Market overall shocks lower this month, affected by the traditional off-season and weak downstream demand at the beginning of the month, prices fell, manufacturers’tender sentiment slightly loosened, and then gradually stabilized, until the end of the month around 25 by the traditional off-season and limited downstream demand shocks, the market ushered in a wave of decline, the terminal on demand. With the weakness of speculative power, some manufacturers began to sell at low prices in exchange for market share. Although the price reduction range of manufacturers is very limited and the volume of shipments is controlled, the overall short atmosphere of the market has warmed up. At the end of the month, the quotation range of 2# low density antimony ingot is 37,000-38,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 37,500 yuan/ton; the quotation range of 2# high density antimony ingot is 36,600-36,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 36,250 yuan/ton. The quotation range of 1# antimony ingot is 37500-38500 yuan/ton, the average price is 38000 yuan/ton; the quotation range of 0# antimony ingot is 38500-39500 yuan/ton, the average price is 39000 yuan/ton.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

July is the traditional off-season of antimony ingot. The demand of downstream terminals is limited, and the demand has not been liberalized. The short market atmosphere is aggravated and the news is chaotic. It is expected that the whole antimony industry will remain weak for some time to come.

Price Trend

Business associations: MTBE market prices rose sharply in July

According to the data of business associations, the market price of MTBE rose sharply in July. At the end of July, the price of MTBE was 5483 yuan/ton, which was 12.29% higher than the price of 4883 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

II. Market Analysis

Product: Driven by the surge of domestic gasoline market in July, the bullish mood of the market is strong, which leads to the rise of MTBE market price.

Industry chain: The international oil price shocks in July warmed up, supporting the domestic gasoline market to rise substantially. Meanwhile, the main units gradually extracted substantial pallet Market outside, stimulating the bullish mentality of market operators. And since mid-July, the domestic MTBE plant start-up rate has continuously dropped to 51.65%, and the decline in MTBE market supply is also an important reason to boost the MTBE market price.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of MTBE products of Business Society Energy Branch believe that the price of gasoline market in August will continue to rise in July, but the domestic MTBE price rose too much in July. It is expected that the domestic MTBE market price will continue to rise in August, but the increase is less than that of gasoline.