from a number of social monitoring agencies learned that OPEC output to reach an agreement the message continued to ferment, although recently the bullish sentiment has subsided, but overall is still in international oil prices higher volatility trend, when the rate of change of crude oil continued high and volatile.

Next Wednesday (December 14th) the domestic refined oil prices rose two is almost a foregone conclusion, and the amplitude or over 350 yuan / ton, a record high this year, private cars to fill a box will increase the cost of about 21 yuan.

In December 9th, OPEC ministerial meeting held in November 30th, the parties to reach an agreement to cut output, output to 32 million 500 thousand barrels / day. Non OPEC members have made commitments will participate in production cuts, reductions in total 600 thousand barrels a day, Russia promised to cut 300 thousand barrels / day. This boost, the international oil price was soaring 8%, and for several days of high shock.

And recently began to weaken this effect. The United States last week, the overall bias inventory report bearish, the market doubts on the execution of the production increase, but the downside is the weaker dollar limit price.

As of December 7th closing, the New York Mercantile Exchange in January 2017 delivery of light crude oil futures prices fell $1.16 to settle at $49.77 a barrel, down 2.28%. February 2017 delivery of London Brent crude oil futures prices fell $0.93 to settle at $53 a barrel, down 1.72%.

“Although the international crude oil fell again, but the domestic oil price adjustment is expected to increase is a foregone conclusion.” JOYOU Information Analyst Sun Xiaofei said that as of December 8th, the rate of change of crude oil was 11.65%, JOYOU crude oil valued 51.737 U.S. dollars / barrel, compared with the benchmark price of 5.399 U.S. dollars / barrel, crude oil price of $51.134 a barrel in Asia, compared with the benchmark price of 4.796 U.S. dollars / barrel, expected 14 refined oil retail price increase 350 yuan / ton.

International oil prices rose slightly Friday (December 2nd), the continuation of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reached an agreement to cut output since the rise in U.S. crude oil WTI secured $51 above the mark, and Brent crude oil will harvest since 2009 the largest single week gains, while the dollar continued to fall in oil prices also provided some support.

In December 5th, east of toluene to discuss the market in 5600 yuan / ton (Zhangjiagang tank), selling up real single negotiating stalemate; Southern China market mainstream toluene transaction in 5450-5500 yuan / ton (Sha Tin tank), mainstream factory prices, discuss the market stalemate; North China Trading in general, Beijing to discuss the market 5550 yuan / ton near Shandong, to discuss the market 5600 yuan / ton, the downstream businesses can lower a single transaction inquiry.

Oil, rose, rose $toluene, electronic pull up, have a good boost to the domestic market. The mainstream of East China toluene market price rose 200 yuan / ton, according to the needs of buyers purchase, turnover rose center. In addition to the mainstream of port holding the goods arrival of toluene, the opportunity to push up. Toluene is expected short-term market consolidation, rose is insufficient.

the recent crude oil firm, the downstream polyester operating rates remain high, and the production of ethylene glycol to form an effective support for good. But the glycol is expensive, and the supply and demand deposit and pessimistic expectations, businesses cautious chase.

In December 5th, ethylene glycol market focus sharply upward, the afternoon MEG price up to 6480 yuan / ton, the intention of concentrated shipment. The morning of ethylene glycol market by the impact of rising oil prices, the domestic ethylene glycol electronic trading opened higher volatility, the spot market price of Sinopec North China raised 300 yuan / ton, the spot market shocks, some continue to rise. East China glycol spot offer price set at 6400-6500 yuan / ton, ethylene glycol ethylene in Southern China to offer 6550 yuan / ton.

Sinopec marketing company Beijing branch of the ethylene glycol offer temporary stability, Yanshan petrochemical, Tianjin petrochemical ethylene glycol spot basically no foreign sales, mutual supply of Tianjin chemical fiber, the glycol spot prices temporarily stabilized 6600 yuan / ton. Sinopec East China sales company glycol spot prices stable, the current spot price of 6400 yuan / ton, under the Yangtze, Shanghai, Zhenhai, BASF are executed. Xinjiang Dushanzi petrochemical ethylene glycol unit operating stability, spot price stability, the implementation of 6600 yuan / ton, the products mainly supply the surrounding area. Maoming petrochemical ethylene glycol unit currently operating load is normal, price increase 150 yuan / ton, the current spot local implementation of 6450 yuan / ton.

The talks atmosphere is insufficient, the market volume is limited. At present, the domestic stock of ethylene glycol, polyester factory inquiry intent is expected in the short term, domestic ethylene glycol or the spot market will continue to shock strength mainly.

The environmental pressure also affects the downstream industrial products industry. From the chemical product industry chain, the upstream products pushed up the cost at the same time, the downstream products and the emergence of production potential, making in the chemical industry “in the middle have enemies in front and rear”.

As of October this year, the main industrial products released by the National Bureau of statistics, plastics, rubber, fiber is the main downstream products of these 10 kinds of chemical products, most products production decline or slowdown in the rise trend.

In twenty-first Century the Institute of economic research data found that since the second half of the year, plastic, primary form of plastics production growth is slowing down. The first half of the former production has remained at around 10% growth in September was negative growth of 2.6%; more than 5% of the growth in the first half production to maintain the latter, the negative growth in October 0.3%. The main raw materials are polyethylene, polypropylene and polyvinyl chloride.

The demand side does not lead to price increases the vibration or chemical products is not sustainable, and lower demand for butadiene rubber and soda to rally more exuberant period. At the end of 11, the price of these two products to achieve 108.74%, growth of 81.75%, far more than other product price increases, in addition to the cost factor pushing up, the demand side is also strong support of the main cause of rising prices.

With the br as an example, the downstream products of synthetic rubber and rubber tire production in the second half of the year of rapid growth, the highest in July rose 20.1% in October, also achieved 13.2% growth. Rubber tire tire production is maintained at around 10% growth in the second half of the year.

The downstream demand is more extensive caustic soda, light industry, textile, medicine, involving metallurgy, petroleum industry, rare earth and other industries, including the recent price hikes of the papermaking industry is an important industry. Strong demand for downstream industries makes pulling the caustic soda market steadily rising momentum, not only the price continued to rise, from the beginning of January 499.8 yuan / ton up to the beginning of November 955.4 yuan / ton, rose more than 80%.

In twenty-first Century, the Economic Research Institute believes that overall, this wave of rising prices of chemical products is the passive rise led to rising costs, environmental pressures, macro-control and the fluctuation of the international market.

In the chemical industry chain, many chemical products itself many links, although the upper reaches of the primary chemical raw material prices, but still need to digest cost pressure in the chemical industry. The domestic and international market demand sluggish, industry profit differentiation serious, shows that the price is not the fundamental economic recovery spawned by the cost push up prices in future or not sustainable.

Rough estimates, annual steel tire rubber consumption growth (love based, net, information) (up to 220 thousand tons of steel supporting increment of about 80 thousand tons, exports nearly 100 thousand tons, about 40 thousand tons of replacement), by using tire rubber consumption growth of nearly 80 thousand tons, 60 thousand tons of latex consumption increment. Correspondingly, low-cost and uncertain factors for the negative impact of the supply is still reflected in the.

Low prices lead to insufficient labor recruitment, in not fully open cut, Malaysia, China production continued negative growth, northern Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, Kampuchea, Burma and other places in Southeast Asia is slowing down; this year overall climate anomalies, cut the delay, too much rain during the rainy season, obvious effect on the yield; in addition the political factors in the the impact of supply, Burma government and local armed War affected Yunnan part of the factory at the end of the supply of raw materials.

According to the ANRPC report, Malaysia yield on the previous ten months fell 9.9%, Chinese fell 7%, Thailand grew only 2.9%, 0.5% growth in Indonesia, Vietnam is relatively stable, up to 4.4%. The whole year is expected to increase in the global supply of less than 2%.

This year’s consumer than expected and release due to insufficient supply of domestic rubber stocks continued to digest, tight spot situation continued to increase, the Qingdao Free Trade Zone stock return to 100 thousand tons, the old warehouse has a smooth transition of latex, 10 tens of thousands of tons of goods due to the smooth flow of cash market price stability and digestion, so continue to exceed the expected rise.

The future is still worthy of attention including the latex products demand highlights, raw material circulation problems in Burma’s political risk, and Trump in the American version of four trillion infrastructure projects.

Rubber demand than expected improvement in surplus situation has been reversed

This year’s super rubber demand is expected to improve, supply is still subject to interference factors of early – suppression and weather, released less than expected, the year of rubber balance sheet repair, supply gap has emerged, grant funds to further participate in the opportunity to do more and reason.

From the figures, the 2016 global natural rubber demand growth up to 4%, the incremental part of nearly 500 thousand tons, of which part of the growth of more than 300 thousand tons of Chinese increment.

Since the beginning of the global car market steadily rise, Chinese, North America, Europe, Japan, Brazil, several major car market before the three quarter of the cumulative increase of 5.65%, compared with last year’s low rebound.

This is a large increase in tire sales Chinese years, overseas economic recovery brought export orders, to promote large-scale domestic heavy truck supporting hot market growth. In addition, the domestic latex and new demand highlights appear continually.

since the fourth quarter, commodity futures funds and domestic financial markets become the center of attention. All kinds of LED products in just two months time to black, rose shirupozhu. Rubber equally eye-catching performance, the 19615 main 1705 contract from August 31st 12220 up to November 28th, the largest increase of 60%.

Review of this rally, on the surface due to the liquidity of capital under the background of futures products favored; multi-level rubber supply and demand to improve itself can not be ignored; if we discuss the driving forces behind, will see in the adjustment of the industrial chain for several years, the link is full of value chain and repair in the period of restocking, which displays a strong force.

The city became the capital pool of incremental funding continued strong sentiment to do more

Since the beginning of the water flow of funds from domestic general level of well-off, the hot real estate market is a big evidence. The devaluation caused inflation expectations also let the market trend for the future commercial growing confidence. In addition, the stock market and financial futures market towardslightly, stock funds looking for more investment opportunities, commodity futures become a priority choice and its allocation.

The futures market has gradually become the funds of the reservoir, and the incremental funds generally for commodities highly optimistic, continued strong sentiment to do more. The annual cycle, many commodities rose nearly doubled, industry funds have been used to bear the environment and rhythm, so people rally so many years of employment amazed.

With coal prices rise and light storage approaches, domestic fertilizer prices significantly in the recent rebound, manufacturers hype to meet market demand eagerly. But behind the laughter, the tension of the tight supply capacity is gradually let the market worry. Since the “transportation vehicle management regulations” after the introduction of many areas of highway freight increase, a large number of sources from the road return railway, railway transportation and increase the burden of coal, grain and other bulk cargo transport seasonal peak arrival more strained furtheraggravate.

Hard to find a car to dispatch poor so many domestic fertilizer enterprises scorched by the flames. According to the Qinghai related enterprises, currently from Qinghai fertilizer volume only meet the actual demand of 1/5, a large number of potash in the factory hoarding. The compound fertilizer enterprises in inland areas also suffered raw materials, double products going to attack. The market believes that the current fertilizer circulation “poor blood” may lead to local structural fertilizer shortage, and if these problems can not be solved by structural, spring fertilizer peak or will face a serious shortage.

Qinghai potash “trapped in place”

According to the relevant enterprises, from mid September this year, the Qinghai area has the appearance of potash fertilizer capacity shortage. Today, Qinghai potash demand on the wagon at 400-500 / day, but every day only 100 knots of actual wagon is issued, only Cha Er Han area for accumulation of about 2000000 tons of potash. Qinghai Province circle for potash scorched by the flames.

Qinghai Saline Lake industrial Limited by Share Ltd sales company general manager Yang Jinbang told reporters: “the current enterprises are facing great difficulties, the main problem is concentrated in the wagon supply is far less than the requirements of enterprises. Such serious transportation difficulties have for many years has not been met, and the problem of long duration also allows the normal operation of enterprises affected.”

According to the Inner Mongolia potash circulation, the current domestic potash fertilizer production capacity is stable, but Qinghai, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia potash transportation difficulties are key factors for long-term business development limited. He added: “the high degree of dependence on K transport railway, most of the Qinghai area radius of potash sales in more than 2500 kilometers, the road is very far, the high cost of highway transportation. But relatively speaking, K is low value-added products, so the railway transportation is the best way to K. However, the Qinghai area population, consumer demand, the development pattern of Qinghai belongs to the resource output plus the arrival of Qinghai Tibet Railway Corporation, the weight of the car is relatively small, empty a serious shortage of resources. At this stage the Saline Lake stocks reached 1 million 800 thousand tons, 500 thousand tons of potash Tibet grid inventory, other small factory also has 300 thousand tons, a total of more than 2 million 600 thousand tons of domestic potash inventory. Pre orders do not go out, can not guarantee delivery time, delivery time will be postponed. This market has been worried.”

Faced with soaring prices of fertilizers?

From September 21st onwards, “transportation vehicle management regulations” formally implemented. With the increase of highway transportation costs, many companies choose to increase the amount of fertilizer transport railway transport and shipping. At the same time, domestic coal transportation, food transport into the seasonal peak, considering factors such as Spring Festival, the railway is expected to supply tension will continue until 2017 “51″.

In fact, the domestic fertilizer transport has been blocked for several months, the market is most concerned about the topic is: inadequate supply of raw materials, products shipped difficulties, chemical fertilizer reserves in winter will not be affected? In the spring of next year will be no shortage of fertilizer? The fertilizer market prices will rise?

Reporters from the Inner Mongolia Tianyu Sceneway industrial group Limited by Share Ltd responsible for the population that recent potassium transport problems become the focus of the industry. Although recent potash prices rose 150-200 yuan / ton, but affected by the exchange rate, rising costs have more than 240 yuan / ton, road transport costs also increased, or even in some areas reached 30%. This cost pressure in the future or will continue to shift to the lower. Qinghai Golmud Tibet lattice potash company vice president Fang Li held the same view. She said: “the enterprise warehouse inventory is limited, great pressure. But the domestic potash fertilizer capacity shortage has seriously affected the sales process, directly lead to downstream fertilizer production enterprises and dealers’ no rice. “.”

In this regard, middle peasants group Cmi Holdings Ltd K manager Wang Bei said: “the short-term prices of imported potash are affected by multiple factors. First, exchange rate changes lead to the cost of imports rose 70-80 yuan / ton; secondly, highway transportation, railway freight regulations limit super cancel preferential policies superimposed after increasing pressure caused by transportation; in addition, the previous stage of potash low prices, sales of large, near port potash inventory low and border trade volume is less, the price rebound in reason.”

How to protect the agricultural demand?

The insufficient supply of raw materials, downstream enterprises operating normally affected by the flow of business reserve shortage stage. This caused by the tension capacity crisis will ultimately threaten domestic agricultural production in spring. Yang Jinbang said: “the potash market tight supply, has affected the normal operation of compound fertilizer factory. Now from the spring peak time only a month, if you can not solve the related problems in the near future, Qinghai fertilizer transport problem may lead to domestic fertilizer in spring next year is extremely tight.”

Talking about the influence caused by insufficient capacity, Anhui six chemical Limited by Share Ltd deputy general manager Xu Dongkui said: “in the short term, transportation has not let enterprises unable to work, but there is a threat. If the problem does not solve the long-term capacity, fertilizer production and management of enterprises will be very difficult, may be forced to stop production in extreme situations.” Hubei three Nanjing Chemical Limited by Share Ltd deputy general manager Mao Guobin believes that if the country can give some policy support in potash transportation, will greatly alleviate the transportation pressure, ensure the stable operation of the fertilizer market in spring.

The market believes that the domestic fertilizer transport tension is not the case, but a serious problem affecting the entire industry. Reporters from news sources say that the current daily 19 thousand carriages transport plan in East China Railway Bureau can cash only 10 thousand knots. But affected by the policy, related to the transport sector bears the dual task of coal supply and grain from the north to the south. The accumulation of contradictions, fertilizer industry is facing the difficulties of transport seems to be very difficult by means of the market in the short term solution.

In fact, in the special policy after the cancellation of agricultural fertilizer transportation, transportation costs and other industry merger. Special commodity seems to be no longer special. But as the key to ensure the input of the agricultural production, the special attributes of fertilizer have not changed fundamentally, ensure timely and adequate fertilizer transportation still need the relevant departments attach great importance. The fertilizer can get priority in transport not nervous? The next shipment fertilizer can have Easy Access in special time?

In the fertilizer industry as a whole in the moment of anxiety, in 2017, the Spring Festival is quietly approaching.

Finance recently, the domestic market is rarely the single bengan, still in the low range of focus areas were in shock. At the end of November, PA (East China) commodity index was 83.81, compared with the highest point in the cycle of 120.13 point (2012-02-28) decreased by 30.23%, compared to 01 in 2016 21, the lowest point of 48.42 months rose 73.09%. (Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 so far)

Dynamic phthalic anhydride market prices in December 2nd domestic enterprises or area:

Shandong Hongxin phthalic anhydride plant all the normal operation, the spot is less, manufacturers today quoting neighbor phthalic anhydride implementation of 8600 yuan / ton, the mixed anhydride method offer 8400 yuan / ton.

Because of the eve of the meeting, the delegates on the signal of friendly optimistic, oil prices rose sharply on the day. As of Thursday Beijing time 00:40, WTI crude oil futures prices rose 7.67%, to $48.70 / barrel, Brent crude oil futures prices rose 8.05%, to $51.12 / barrel.

China University of Petroleum professor Dong Xiucheng Zhengbao told reporters on the OPEC output to reach an agreement in the short term caused by rising oil prices, but will not have much impact. At present, the price of oil is the imbalance between supply and demand of oil, it will not change because of an agreement. OPEC production or limited production belong to the supply side, but the key lies in solving problems of consumption. Consumption is related to change of world economic situation. At present, the world economic downturn, do not see signs of recovery. In addition, the enforcement of OPEC is still limited, because the members do not necessarily strictly abide by the agreement.

Lung Chung Petrochemical Network Analyst Li Yan also believes that although the OPEC meeting finally reached an agreement, but not for oil prices rose to provide continuous power.

As of the day of closing, the New York Mercantile Exchange in January 2017 delivery of light crude oil futures prices rose 4.21 U.S. dollars, to close at $49.44 a barrel, up 9.31%. January 2017 delivery of London Brent crude oil futures prices rose 4.09 U.S. dollars, to close at $50.47 a barrel, up 8.82%.