After the May Day holiday, Shanghai lead rose for three consecutive working days, and on the 7th, it rose to 17790 yuan/ton in the Shanghai lead market, setting a new high in five years since March 2019.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic price range for lead ingots on May 8th was 17350-17500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 17425 yuan/ton, an increase of 225 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day.

Macroscopically, during the May Day holiday in the international market, the Federal Reserve announced that interest rates would remain unchanged, which basically met market expectations. However, non farm employment data performed poorly, with the US dollar index falling and the overall performance of the non-ferrous market being better. The favorable policies in the domestic market have increased, boosting the domestic market mentality, and the overall macro mentality is improving.

Supply side: Due to the impact of raw material supply, the expected supply of lead ingots is tight

The supply at the mining end is still tight, and the lead processing fees are still operating at a low level, which has affected the lower production of primary lead enterprises; At the end of April, the recycled lead industry introduced a “reverse invoicing” policy, which has affected the recycling of waste battery enterprises. The procurement of raw materials for recycled lead enterprises has been difficult, and the operating rate has declined. Furthermore, the cost of purchasing waste batteries may increase due to the policy’s impact. Currently, the recycling industry has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. Some companies have maintenance plans by the end of this month, and the expected supply of recycled lead is tight.

In terms of demand: End consumer demand support during the off-season

May is a seasonal off-season for battery companies, and the demand for battery replacement in the end market is weak. Currently, battery companies are still actively digesting existing inventory, and the cost pressure for battery companies is relatively high. They need to maintain essential procurement of raw materials. The off-season for terminals has also slowed down the rate of scrapping of used batteries, making the current supply of recycled lead tight.

Outlook for the future: Overall, the macro market atmosphere is currently warm, and the expected supply of lead ingots is tight. Although the downstream industry is in the off-season, the reduction in scrapped waste batteries has also exacerbated the problem of tight supply of raw materials for recycled lead enterprises. Lead prices will continue to remain strong in the short term, boosted by tight supply.

Related data:

According to ILZSG, an international lead and zinc research group, it is expected that there will be a global surplus of 40000 tons of refined lead supply in 2024. The global demand for refined lead is expected to increase by 1.9% to 13.42 million tons, and lead ore production is expected to increase by 1.8% to 4.59 million tons. ILZSG expects a global surplus of 56000 tons of refined zinc supply in 2024. The global demand for refined zinc is expected to increase by 1.8% to 13.96 million tons, and zinc ore production is expected to increase by 0.7% to 12.42 million tons.

On May 7th, the total LME lead inventory was 258800 tons, a decrease of 7200 tons compared to the previous trading day. The Singapore warehouse decreased by 3350 tons, the Kaohsiung warehouse decreased by 1775 tons, the Busan warehouse decreased by 1025 tons, the Guangyang warehouse decreased by 1025 tons, and the Laiheng warehouse decreased by 25 tons. The inventory levels in other regions are temporarily stable.

Weak prices of ethylene glycol in April

The price of ethylene glycol was weak in April. According to data from Business Society, as of April 30th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4481.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.70% from the average price of 4513.33 yuan/ton in the East China market on April 1st. The prices for each region are as follows:

The price range for spot goods executed by mainstream manufacturers in East China is between 4400-4630 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4400 yuan/ton, while the mainstream manufacturers in Central China have a spot price range of 4350 yuan/ton for external execution; The mainstream manufacturers in North China offer a spot price of 4500 yuan/ton for external transactions.

Fundamental logic of market weakness

Since March, the market has started trading overseas devices and there has been news of a restart, coupled with a shift in port inventory from obvious destocking to platform volatility, leading to a decline in ethylene glycol prices.

At present, the price of ethylene glycol is supported by cost factors, factory profits are narrowing, and the long short game is intensifying. The market is gradually considering bottom support, and the price is relatively stable in the near future.

Ethylene glycol may continue to operate weakly in May

Ethylene glycol may continue to operate weakly in May, for the following reasons:

1. The expected increase in domestic and foreign supply in May may be realized; In terms of overseas facilities, all ethylene glycol facilities in Saudi Arabia have resumed operation, while the restart of facilities in South Asia in the United States has been postponed until early May. There is an expectation of an increase in overseas supply, while domestic imports are expected to remain in an incremental state in May; In terms of domestic facilities, there is an expectation of restarting facilities with a production capacity of 2.8 million tons per year. However, the new maintenance plan for domestic facilities also involves a production capacity of 900000 tons per year, which depends on the actual implementation situation. Overall, it is expected that domestic supply may increase in May.

Currently, the operating load of polyester is relatively high, and there is limited room for downstream demand improvement in May.

Expected failure variable:

If crude oil prices and coal continue to rise in May, the cost of ethylene glycol will provide strong support; The dominant factor in ethylene glycol prices is shifting from supply and demand to cost side;

2. Explicit inventory is contrary to expectations, and there has been no accumulation of port inventory, continuing to be in a state of destocking. Market sentiment is guided by the undervalued value of ethylene glycol, and funds are pushing up the price of ethylene glycol.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic TDI price fluctuated and declined in April. At the beginning of the month, the average TDI market price was 16100 yuan/ton. On April 30th, the TDI price was 15500 yuan/ton, and it was reduced by 600 yuan/ton within the month, with an overall decline of 3.73%.

The TDI market in April was weak and volatile. In the first ten days, the TDI market continued its downward trend in March, with light trading in the terminal market, continued sluggish downstream purchases, weak trading market sentiment, and a continuous decline in market transaction focus; In the middle and later half of the year, TDI prices first rose and then fell. On April 11th, the positive news from major manufacturers was released, and the supply side offered a strong increase. TDI prices stopped falling and rebounded, but due to weak demand performance, low enthusiasm for downstream entry into the market, insufficient consumption in the terminal market, and weak downstream acceptance of high priced goods, TDI prices fell again under the leadership of demand.

The upstream toluene market rose and fell in April, with prices at 7610 yuan/ton on April 30th, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month at 7410 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.70%. The international crude oil price fluctuates at a high level, and the cost of toluene continues to support; The demand for downstream oil adjustment and disproportionation reaction is lower than expected, and the support for toluene is relatively weak; The high level of port inventory has a bearish impact on the toluene market.

According to TDI data analysts from Business Society, the operation of TDI factories in China is currently stable, with high capacity utilization. The trade market mentality is conflicted, and the shipment of goods by holders is limited. The transaction focus continues to decline, and market confidence is insufficient; Downstream demand continues to be weak, with industry players taking a wait-and-see attitude. In the supply-demand game, it is expected that the short-term TDI market will be weak, with narrow price fluctuations. Please pay attention to the follow-up situation downstream.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, sulfur prices in East China rose first and then fell in April. On April 30th, the average ex factory price of sulfur in the East China region was 1183.33 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 10.25% compared to the average ex factory price of 1073.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

This month, the sulfur market in East China rose first and then fell. Prior to the 18th, the price of sulfur rose strongly, and downstream purchases were active in this cycle. On site trading was active, and enterprise shipments were smooth, which was beneficial for the increase in sulfur prices. At the same time, the maintenance of refineries in the Shandong region of the supplier was concentrated, and the utilization rate of production capacity was reduced. The market supply of goods was tight, and the inventory of enterprises was low, resulting in a significant increase in refinery prices. Supported by favorable supply and demand, the focus of sulfur prices continued to shift upwards; After the price of sulfur rose to a high level, it was difficult to find low-priced downstream sources of sulfur, and resistance to high priced sulfur increased. With the normal operation of refineries in Shandong and stable market supply of goods, downstream stocking sentiment gradually weakened. In addition, some refineries discharged inventory before the holiday, and the trend of sulfur consolidation and downward adjustment.

The downstream sulfuric acid market stabilized first and then fell in April. At the beginning of the month, the sulfuric acid market price was 328.75 yuan/ton, and on April 30th, it was 272.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.11% during the month. In the first half of the year, the domestic sulfuric acid market remained stable, with acid companies maintaining their shipping pace. Downstream demand and procurement enthusiasm were not high, and the market trading atmosphere was weak, resulting in a slight adjustment in sulfuric acid prices; In the latter half of the year, the sulfuric acid market remained stable and downward, with average demand in the downstream compound fertilizer industry and limited procurement of sulfuric acid. Acid companies had poor shipments, and some companies lowered their prices to stimulate shipments.

The market for monoammonium phosphate continued to decline in April, with a decrease in the price of raw material phosphate rock and an increase in the price of raw material sulfur. The cost side showed mixed fluctuations. The operating rate of ammonium phosphate enterprises has declined, some ammonium phosphate equipment has been repaired, and market supply has been reduced. However, the demand side continues to be sluggish, and market trading is weak. Downstream compound fertilizer enterprises are more cautious in procurement, with insufficient new orders and sales pressure. Market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price of ammonium phosphate continues to decline. As of April 30th, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium was 2853 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.86% compared to the average price of 3096 yuan/ton on April 1st.

In the future market forecast, sulfur analysts from Business Society believe that the supply of sulfur in the current sulfur market is stable, with no pressure on enterprise inventory. Suppliers mainly maintain shipments, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high. On market trading follows up as needed, and enterprise shipments are inconsistent. Considering the weak downstream market and the weakening reaction to high priced sulfur, it is expected that the sulfur market will remain stagnant and consolidate in May, and prices may slightly decrease.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market fluctuated and declined in April. From April 1st to 29th, the domestic aggregated MDI market price increased from 16500 yuan/ton to 16866 yuan/ton, with a monthly price increase of 2.22% and a year-on-year price increase of 6.75%.

In the first half of the month, the domestic aggregated MDI market situation was sorted and operated, and suppliers continued to maintain a proactive attitude, controlling the quantity of shipments. Although the current supply side’s main factories maintain a low volume, the downstream market’s consumption capacity is limited.

In mid month, the domestic aggregated MDI market prices rose, boosting new orders and prices, releasing social inventory, limited supply of new goods from suppliers, tightening spot prices, and boosting focus, resulting in higher prices.

In the latter half of the month, the domestic aggregated MDI market saw a narrow upward trend, with a strong follow-up. After the demand side gradually entered the warehouse in the early stage, it has recently concentrated on digesting the increase and inventory, and its buying ability is average. Insufficient follow-up ability in downstream markets. But the supplier continues to maintain a proactive attitude, on the one hand, offering higher prices, and on the other hand, controlling the quantity of shipments.

The supply side is affected by favorable factors such as reduced supply from production enterprises.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: The domestic supply of pure benzene has decreased, and traders are actively shipping at high prices, shifting the focus of negotiations. However, downstream demand for pre holiday replenishment is approaching, procurement enthusiasm has decreased, and the price drop has not met downstream expectations, creating a sticky trading atmosphere. As of April 28th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shengyishe is 8750.50 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: Currently, the supply and demand logic of aniline in China continues to be weak. As of April 28th, the benchmark price of aniline in Shengyishe is 12067.50 yuan/ton. The cost impact of aggregating MDI is mixed.

On the demand side, the May Day holiday is approaching, and downstream buyers are gradually entering the warehouse in the early stage. In the near future, buying and watching will be the main focus, considering an overall strong follow-up, combined with reserve warehouse demand, or a small amount of follow-up orders expected. The short-term aggregate MDI demand side is influenced by favorable factors.

In the future market forecast, the domestic aggregated MDI market price has reached a high level, with traders mostly adopting a wait-and-see attitude, and suppliers continuing to maintain a price stance. Business Society’s aggregated MDI analyst predicts that the domestic aggregated MDI market is mainly strong and consolidating.

Recent trends in urea prices

This week, the domestic urea market is poised to rise and slow down. At the beginning of the week, the urea market was affected by bearish news from India, with exports being suppressed and the urea market falling. But after mid week, the market returned to fundamentals, and urea production remained generally low. With the support of factory orders, urea prices slightly surged, but still did not break through the previous decline. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of urea in Shandong dropped from 2444 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2434 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.41%.

From the supply side, the current operating rate of urea enterprises is around 80%, and the daily production of urea in China is about 180000 tons, with little change in supply compared to the previous period. Within the week, the factory prices of mainstream urea manufacturers in Shandong rebounded after falling, and the overall change was not significant, with the fluctuation controlled at around 20 yuan/ton.

From the upstream market perspective:

Liquefied natural gas: As of April 28th, the average price of liquefied natural gas in China was 4104 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.33% compared to the average price of 4050 yuan/ton on April 22nd. Traffic has resumed smoothly, and market trading has increased. The combined decrease in import volume, the decline in US exports, and the shutdown of some Russian facilities. Under tight supply conditions, low liquid prices are pushing upwards.

Coal: Coal has been operating weakly this week, while thermal coal has maintained normal production and sales overall, and the market has been operating weakly overall. Still focusing on implementing long-term cooperative shipping. Some coal mines have completed their production tasks this month, and the overall coal supply level has slightly decreased. Traders tend to maintain a cautious wait-and-see attitude due to their average willingness to ship due to their uncertainty about the future market.

Liquid ammonia: This week, liquid ammonia in Shandong region rose. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the weekly increase in liquid ammonia was 3.8%, mainly due to a significant decline in the previous period. Manufacturers showed a clear attitude of price support this week, and prices slightly rebounded. During the week, prices of a large factory in Shandong generally fell and rebounded, with an increase of over 100 yuan/ton. The supply and demand fundamentals remain stable. Although the peak season for agricultural procurement is approaching, factory orders remain high, and industrial demand remains in high demand. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 2850-3000 yuan/ton.

From the perspective of downstream demand: agricultural demand has weakened, while industrial demand is average. Spring plowing is gradually coming to an end, with sporadic fertilization as the main focus. Composite fertilizer, board, and melamine enterprises have started production at a low level, and the industry lacks confidence in trading and investment, with a focus on essential procurement. This week, the downstream price of melamine in urea is still hovering at the bottom, and the price remains unchanged from last week. There has been no improvement in the price this week.

Looking at the future: Business Society urea analysts believe that in early May, it is expected that the urea market in Shandong will maintain a narrow adjustment pattern. Although upstream raw material support for urea is strong, downstream agricultural demand may slow down with seasonal weakening, and industrial rigid demand will be the main focus. Especially, exports may be affected by insufficient Indian procurement, and prices may loosen.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of April 23, the domestic price of n-butanal was 7903 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.51% compared to 8025 yuan/ton on April 1.

Upstream aspect:

The raw material propylene experienced a wave of rise in the first half of April and then cooled down. Due to the impact of the supply chain, inventory remained low, and downstream polypropylene demand was strong, leading to further price increases. With the increase in quotation, downstream product cost pressure increased, procurement sentiment weakened, and prices subsequently declined.

In terms of raw material hydrogen: In April, the domestic hydrogen market had sufficient supply of goods. Except for the northern Jiangsu region, which was driven by the photovoltaic action and had strong demand support and strong prices, other regions basically bottomed out and operated.

Downstream aspect:

In April, the n-butanol market showed an overall volatile and declining trend, with weak demand. Purchasing was based on essential needs, and market inquiries were relatively cautious.

Business Society’s butyraldehyde data analyst believes that supply and demand are weak, and the price of butyraldehyde is falling again and again. In the future, the market will tend to consolidate weakly, and the specific trend needs to pay attention to supply and demand information.

This week, the price of plasticizer DOTP stopped falling and rebounded

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 22, the price of DOTP was 9925 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.25% compared to the fluctuating price of 9900 yuan/ton on April 15. The price of raw material isooctanol has risen, the price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and risen, PTA prices have weakened and consolidated, and the cost of plasticizers has increased; Plasticizer DOTP manufacturers are operating steadily, with sufficient supply of DOTP. Downstream enterprises are undergoing maintenance, resulting in a decrease in demand for plasticizers and a decrease in demand for cost increases. As a result, DOTP prices have fluctuated and risen this week.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 22, the quotation for isooctanol was 9640 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.26% compared to the quotation of 9520 yuan/ton on April 15; Compared to April 1st, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and decreased by 4.17% to 10060 yuan/ton. This week, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and risen, while the price of raw material propylene has fluctuated and risen. With cost support, the downward pressure on isooctanol has weakened, and the upward momentum has increased; Downstream customers still have purchasing enthusiasm, while iso octanol manufacturers are actively shipping. The positive support for iso octanol is significant.

The price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 22, the quotation for phthalic anhydride was 7737.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.16% compared to the price of 7725 yuan/ton on April 15; Compared to April 1st, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and increased by 1.98% to 7587.50 yuan/ton. The price of crude oil continues to rise, the cost of phthalic anhydride has risen, the price of nefa phthalic anhydride has risen, and the support for the rise of ortho phthalic anhydride has increased. The supply and demand situation of phthalic anhydride is temporarily stable, and the price of phthalic anhydride will remain stable in the future. The cost support of phthalic anhydride for plasticizer DOTP is limited.

Downstream enterprises have less than expected maintenance

This week, the capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises decreased month on month, but the maintenance of enterprises did not meet expectations, and the capacity utilization rate of enterprises increased year-on-year. The maintenance is mainly concentrated in mid April, and the expected start of construction in the next week is expected to increase, with an increase in production and an increase in demand for plasticizers.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that in terms of cost, the price of isooctanol fluctuates and rises, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuates and rises, and the cost of plasticizer DOTP increases; On the supply side, the production of plasticizer DOTP is at a high level, and there is an oversupply of plasticizer DOTP; In terms of demand, PVC manufacturers have seen a decrease in production, with an expected increase in production in the next week, and an expected increase in demand for plasticizer DOTP. In the future, the cost of plasticizer DOTP raw materials has risen, and demand has rebounded. It is expected that DOTP prices will fluctuate and rise in the future.

1、 Price trend

Taking the sulfuric acid method rutile type titanium dioxide with a large volume of goods in the domestic market as an example, according to data monitoring by Business Society, the domestic titanium dioxide market price fell this week. The average price of titanium dioxide on Monday was 17266.67 yuan/ton, and on Friday it was 17133.33 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 0.77%.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic titanium dioxide market prices have fallen this week. The overall trading situation on the domestic exchange is average, with limited new orders and a downward focus on trading on the exchange. Downstream wait-and-see sentiment is strong, demand is weakening, and procurement is cautious. The export market has performed well. As of now, domestic prices for rutile type titanium dioxide are mostly between 16700 and 18300 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 15500 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price is negotiable.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the focus of the titanium concentrate market in Panxi region has slightly declined this week. There is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market, and there is significant cost pressure in the downstream titanium dioxide market. Purchasing is cautious, and the prices of high priced goods on the market have slightly adjusted downwards. As of now, the tax-free quotation for grade 38-42 titanium ore is around 1600-1650 yuan/ton, the tax-free quotation for grade 46 10 titanium concentrate is around 2300 yuan/ton, and the tax-free quotation for grade 47 20 titanium concentrate is around 2350-2480 yuan/ton. In the short term, the market price of titanium concentrate is temporarily stable, and the actual transaction price is negotiable.

In terms of sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market prices have remained stagnant this week. According to data monitoring from Business Society, the average price of sulfuric acid this week was 328.75 yuan/ton. The market price of sulfuric acid has been stable recently, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society Titanium Dioxide Analyst believes that currently, the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi region has slightly decreased, sulfuric acid prices are temporarily stable, titanium dioxide costs are under pressure, and downstream market demand is weak. It is expected that in the short term, the market situation for titanium dioxide will be mostly wait-and-see, with weak and stable operation as the main focus, and the actual transaction price will be negotiable.

This week, the domestic titanium tetrachloride market maintained stable operation. According to the monitoring system of Shengyishe, as of April 18th, the benchmark price of titanium tetrachloride in Shengyishe was 10825.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.41% compared to the beginning of this month (10675.00 yuan/ton).

High cost support for titanium tetrachloride, limited market circulation, and downstream rigid demand procurement as the main focus.

Business Society’s titanium tetrachloride analyst believes that the high cost of titanium tetrachloride is under pressure, and downstream rigid demand procurement is the main focus, which may remain stable in the near future.